Easterly Shear?

[MWatkins]

One thing to watch...based on the cloud pattern we may be seeing a bit of easterly shear over the depression. The NOGAPS model is still weakening the system almost immediately...I havent looked through the grids but perhaps it is picking up on some shear from the east.

Maybe I am just seeing things but to me...it sure looks like some easterly shear may be getting in the way of early development:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

MW

[TS Zack]

Just saw that MW..... I will put that in my discussion tonight. Easterly Shear is causing this system to stay rather disorganized.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This system is starting to look like a tropical depression 6?

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[Brent]

It looked more impressive before it got numbered...

Figures.

[jkt21787]

I would just love it if this system ended up dissipating after all of this discussion and speculation, would fit it just right!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That would show me as a big w!ishcaster!!!

[ThunderMate]

don't all of you realize that at night all tropical cyclones weaken due to the night time cooling...tomm. it will be right back where it was today with the help of day time heating.

[jkt21787]

don't all of you realize that at night all tropical cyclones weaken due to the night time cooling...tomm. it will be right back where it was today with the help of day time heating.

No, that is actually the opposite. Tropical Cyclones usually see an increase in convection at night, its different than what you see like with U.S. Thunderstorms.

[Derek Ortt]

you're over-reacting, Matt

This really never stood a chance at rapidly developing and its doing exactly what I have expected. A slow development trend. The SAL is preventing anything rapid from occurring and may do so until this passes about 65W

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

When will it become a named storm Derek?

[Brent]

Weaker it stays=Farther south.

[Anonymous]

I don't think it will get above 45 mph until Saturday.

[Derek Ortt]

probably tonight it will become a named storm

however, it may not become a hurricane until the middle part of next week

[Anonymous]

probably tonight it will become a named storm

however, it may not become a hurricane until the middle part of next week

I'd say thats overdoing it just a bit. I think it will be a hurricane by Monday.

[Astro_man92]

I would just love it if this system ended up dissipating after all of this discussion and speculation, would fit it just right!

Well i'd hate it this season is starting to heat back up after that SAL blast
[img]http://home.cfl.rr.com/smileypage/look's%20temp%20smiley%20page/Noooo.gif[/img]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

All this needs to do is become a 40 mph tropical storm to keep us in the record pace.

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... E=al092005

big time exposed center and is farther north than previously thought, meanings, its more entwinced with the SAL. May not reach cane status until late next week if it continues to slide more northerly, and we'll just see a very slow intensification up to a moderate TS

[Hurricaneman]

It hasnt even become named yet, but i think it will saturday

[hicksta]

derek whered you go to collage

[Derek Ortt]

University of Miami and have stayed there to work and go to grad school