TD 9 Soon To Be Irene Probably Out To Sea

[tropicstorm]

There are 2 prominent high pressure systems in the Atlantic right now - our well known Bermuda High and another larger system in the eastern Atlantic, with Harvey wedged between them creating the trough / weakness. Like all tropical systems, won't TD 9 / Irene be inclined to ride the western ridge periphery of the more eastern high pressure system that it will first encounter and get swooped up by the leftover Harvey trough, thereby almost certainly sending Irene on the nw/n recurvature? Even if the Harvey trough / weakness diminishes, won't Irene still ride the periphery of the first prominent high pressure ridge? Either way, looks to me like this one is probably going out to sea.

[TS Zack]

If you lose the weakness you will have a joint ridge of high pressure. Therefore, the Azores High will build across and connect with the Berumda High. Thats where we get the name Bermuda/Azores High.

[deltadog03]

right...great point..plus the weakness is well north and its moving out with harvey....

[Typhoon_Willie]

And that is the biggest reason why TD 9 is not being called a fish just yet...

[WindRunner]

yeah, by the time Irene gets anywhere near the weakness, it'll have closed up with the passing of Harvey

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I personally highly doubt it will recurve.


Hybridstorm_November2001

[deltadog03]

also, the longer this takes to develop the lower in lat...it should go..

[Ivanhater]

most of the pros including dt is saying it will NOT recurve, we will see

[skysummit]

I don't believe it will recurve either.

[senorpepr]

Looking here you can see the subtropical ridge is really the only dominate anticyclonic feature in the Atlantic and is currently located northeast of the Azores with ridging extending southwestward toward the north-central Atlantic and eastward toward the Brest Peninsula of France.

The subtropical ridge is often referred to by Americans as the Bermuda High, but also referred to as the Azores High by Europeans. Regardless, it's the subtropical ridge.

[Brent]

I think the weaker it stays, the farther south it stays, and I'm not convinced of a recurve. 0z models have shifted west...

[JTD]

I think the weaker it stays, the farther south it stays, and I'm not convinced of a recurve. 0z models have shifted west...

Those 0Z models. WOW!!

I wasn't expecting a recurvature but did that switch surprise you as much as it did me?

[deltadog03]

great points...the longer it takes to develop really strong...the more Westward she will go....

[jasons2k]

I am becoming increasingly concerned her window to turn is shrinking rapidly

[wolfmmiii]

Just an amateur talking but looking at Gloria's track (1993??), this looks like it could take the same path. Is there climatology or other factors that would say otherwise?

[fci]

Just an amateur talking but looking at Gloria's track (1993??), this looks like it could take the same path. Is there climatology or other factors that would say otherwise?

What year?
I don't see Gloria in 1993

[timeflow]

Gloria was in late September of 1985. If that's the Gloria you're thinking of. I was 13 years old, lived in Bedford Hills, NY. That day was interesting. I put on a big orange poncho and did my paper-route in the middle of the storm (which for our area had winds in the 20-40mph range). I remember these two teenage girls on the phone talking to each other in opposing condos watched me pass between in the wind with my poncho flapping. They burst out laughing. After the storm swept inland it became more blustery and cool. The sun peeked out. If I recall correctly the trees were by then changing color somewhat, and above the wind driven yellow trees there were fast moving clouds and a spectacular rainbow. For me it was fun... but out on Long Island I think they had a pretty bad aweful day.

[Jim Cantore]

Lets just hope it's a fish cause I have a feeling this is gonna be a powerful hurricane

[wolfmmiii]

Yep, don't know why I said '93. Yeah, 1985 was Gloria's year.