Salt shakers ready?
The GFS is always fun to look at, and I actually have to agree with the majority of its track for soon-to-be Irene. It takes Irene north of the islands and anywhere but to the fishes. The ever-so-reliable 384 hr. GFS shows Irene off the coast of Jacksonville. It sounds like a good path, maybe a little south of my thoughts, but a good path. The wave just coming off the coast of africa is what it develops into a smaller and a little bit weaker Jose (should be depression 72-96hr range). Jose turns north a little further east than Irene, but shadows her at a safe range to the ESE. The model shows a little bit of growth (wind field) by Irene late in the period, and show deeping over the Gulf Stream. Now things get interesting. If I see correctly, Jose gets close enough to the (due) east of Irene to start to dance (Fujiwara or whatever the name is). With Irene in the little bend formed by the GA coast, she slows down and turns right to parallel the coast. Jose slows down as well. This could just be a turn to the NNE by Irene, but it starts to show Jose's isobars melding into Irene's, and Jose practically disappating for no visible reason (other than Irene).
Now the hard-to-predict stuff
: This could drag TS winds from Melbourne to ? (Norfolk?) as she heads up the coast at 384+, especially since it does not show significant weakening due to proximy of FL/GA/SC coast. A track from here for Irene could look like Alex did, scraping Hatteras and providing surf for the NE.
Now, everyone take the lid off of the salt shaker, tip it back, swallow, and comment.
