Will TD#9 curve out to sea?

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dwg71
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#81 Postby dwg71 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:42 pm

deltadog03 wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Because someone makes a direction comment in relation to the 'out to sea' question does not deserve a flurry of "wobble" cracks. If you just refrained from doing that there wouldn't be any wobble post problem.

The observation that the wave center is moving near west to maybe 275* is perfectly legitimate and doesn't deserve to be heckled.


AGREED...It dosn't deserve to bashed...i have no problem with anyone putting what they think or see the movement to be...and yes, its moving around "275"


The problem is with no clear center fix its hard to put a number on direction. I see more like 300, but until we get a better fix on definitive center we are just speculating.
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Frank2
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#82 Postby Frank2 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:43 pm

Thanks, Sanibel - that's been my gut feeling for a number of weeks.

As far as statistics go, NOAA and CSU might be on track to forecast a record season, but, if the current weakness continues, we might see a revision in at least the wording of the overall outlook in the weeks to come (for example, they might state "it is now forecast that while the season will probably remain at record levels for tropical cyclone development, the possibililty of a repeat of 2004's record for landfalling hurricanes seems to be lessening").

Just a possibility, but, it definitely seems possible at this time.

Frank
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#83 Postby Frank2 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:47 pm

Re: deltadog03's post

That's okay - we all posting so fast that we're tripping over each other's shoes!

Lots of cloud-to-ground lightning here ATT - I'd best stop before I'm toast...


Frank2
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#84 Postby shaggy » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:47 pm

don't forget isabel that was at 20.3 north and 47.8 west and still made a landfall in the US so just because it crosses 20 north that far out doesn't mean that it can't turn back and pose a serious threat the to US
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#85 Postby jax » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:49 pm

i trhink it's starting to turn North now...
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#86 Postby EDR1222 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:50 pm

ncdowneast wrote:don't forget isabel that was at 20.3 north and 47.8 west and still made a landfall in the US so just because it crosses 20 north that far out doesn't mean that it can't turn back and pose a serious threat the to US


True, but right now there just doesn't seem to be a strong enough ridge pattern that will be in place to cause that to happen. Things could always change however.
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#87 Postby NorthGaWeather » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:51 pm

I think its turning Northeast :lol:

I love the arguing over direction and its not even named.
Last edited by NorthGaWeather on Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#88 Postby Nimbus » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:52 pm

Big blow up in convection over the center of TD9.
Click the lat lon box to get a grid.
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#89 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:54 pm

good vantage point

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12
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#90 Postby jasons2k » Thu Aug 04, 2005 3:34 pm

Oh dear, 2 more hours and already another flip-flop

:wall:
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#91 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Aug 04, 2005 3:43 pm

jschlitz wrote:Oh dear, 2 more hours and already another flip-flop

:wall:


Its gonna happen over and over and over....

<RICKY>
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#92 Postby jasons2k » Thu Aug 04, 2005 3:53 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
jschlitz wrote:Oh dear, 2 more hours and already another flip-flop

:wall:


Its gonna happen over and over and over....

<RICKY>


Yeah, you're right...just seems like the past 6 hours on this storm seems more like 6 days with the range of possbilities tossed out there....and it's not even named yet (altho it prob should be, but that's another thread...)
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#93 Postby tailgater » Thu Aug 04, 2005 4:15 pm

Hey Luis, better hope TD 9 doesn't follow the path that well defined Upper Low is taking ( appraoching from the ENE).
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#94 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Aug 04, 2005 4:21 pm

Yeah Luis you better keep an eye out for this thing just in case.

<RICKY>
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#95 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 4:21 pm

Luis, you and everyone else REALLY need to watch this...cuz, the farther WEST it gets...and IF** it turns NW or whatever that means the closer it gets to you...
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#96 Postby Frank2 » Fri Aug 05, 2005 7:54 am

There were several references to weaknesses in the subtropical ridge in this morning's TCD - I'm not surprised, as it seems the subtropical ridge isn't a ridge at all this season, but two or three separate high pressure areas.

If this continues, this will truly make a difference in the outcome of the season.

Frank
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#97 Postby dgparent » Fri Aug 05, 2005 7:57 am

Who in the heck is Luis ? I don't see that nick anywhere
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#98 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Aug 05, 2005 7:58 am

dgparent wrote:Who in the heck is Luis ? I don't see that nick anywhere


Cycloneye
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#99 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Aug 05, 2005 7:58 am

dgparent wrote:Who in the heck is Luis ? I don't see that nick anywhere


that would be the one and only Cycloneye.

<RICKY>
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#100 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:08 am

These models initialize every storm out here to move more north than it does...this storm will end up more west and models are already starting to recognize the strengthening ridge and pushing it westward. Remember we have very strong ridging this year...I see not fish here :eek:

:eek:

NHC 5AM discussion:

MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE WEAKNESS WILL SLOWLY FILL IN AS THE LOW WEAKENS...WHICH WILL ACT TO FORCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AFTER 36 HOURS. IN THE DAY 4 AND 5 TIME PERIODS...THE MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE UKMET...NOGAPS...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF
MODELS TURNING THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD ANOTHER DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WHEREAS THE GFS AND GFDL MOVE THE STORM MORE WESTWARD.
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