95L Invest Thread

[Anonymous]

Ouch. This most likely will be a big event in the next week or two. Whether its an East Coaster(most likely) or a FL event remains to be seen. Btw Naso im looking forward for your video update on this.

Actually, I would tend (WHILE IT IS EXTREMELY EARLY AND ANYTHING COULD HAPPEN) to think that this would be more likely for Florida. An Andrew-type or a Frances-type track could indeed occur (NOT SAYING IT WILL BE AS STRONG BY ANY MEANS)

Wahts your thoughts man? I mean on your explanation?

The system moves west-northwest for a few days, gets north of the islands, pull northwest, missing the weakness, then the ridge builds on top and it moves back west.

[Galvestongirl]

It's a fish, no its a threat, no its a TD, no its TS, No its a______________
(Fill in the Blank.)

I have NEVER seen this much back and forth over an Invest......Ever.

I PRAY that we start this thread fresh when it becomes a TD. Since last night, the pages of the thread doubled, but the quality of most of the posts halved

AMEN ma

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Based on model shifts, it seems like it's becoming less and less likely that this system will go out to sea. Absolutely EVERYONE from GOM to NE needs to watch this...

[WeatherEmperor]

It's a fish, no its a threat, no its a TD, no its TS, No its a______________
(Fill in the Blank.)

I have NEVER seen this much back and forth over an Invest......Ever.

I PRAY that we start this thread fresh when it becomes a TD. Since last night, the pages of the thread doubled, but the quality of most of the posts halved

thats the way it goes around here i guess. lol. up and down like a roaler coaster.

<RICKY>

[BensonTCwatcher]

Man, Irene is vacuuming up all that energy to the SW. She's going to spool up steadily I think, rather than explode and fizzle out near term. Not good

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Well I am a weather FREAK so therefore given an invest I will get really hyper!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

LOOK AT THE SHEER DIAMETER OF 95L!!! Like 3 Floridas put together!

[Sanibel]

Floydbuster:


Where did you get that avatar? That is Charley passing closest to my house when the lanai was being ripped away...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like Floyd when it started. A huge wave.

[Thunder44]

Based on model shifts, it seems like it's becoming less and less likely that this system will go out to sea. Absolutely EVERYONE from GOM to NE needs to watch this...

I think it's too early doubt any solution. Yesterday the favored opinion was its going to recurve, today it's going to hit the east coast, tomorrow it may be that's it going to be a GOM threat. The storm is more than 3000 thousand miles away from the US. Let it develop and move along first before jumping on to one scenerio over the other.

[storm4u]

that thing s a monster!!!

[Sanibel]

Agreed "Thunder44". Way too early.

[WeatherEmperor]

Based on model shifts, it seems like it's becoming less and less likely that this system will go out to sea. Absolutely EVERYONE from GOM to NE needs to watch this...

I think it's too early doubt any solution. Yesterday the favored opinion was its going to recurve, today it's going to hit the east coast, tomorrow it may be that's it going to be a GulOM threat. The storm is more than 3000 thousand miles away from the US. Let it develop and move along first before jumping on to one scenerio over the other.

That is true. Its just that with the advanced technology we have today we just want more and more and more all the time so we try to predict where systems will go.

<RICKY>

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

***This is NOT official and NOT endorsed by storm2k; check NHC for official forecasts***

Storm Path:
Recurvature is still possible, and so are the other scenarios- so yes it's too early to tell. Agree with Thunder2k, it's 3000 miles away- too far away

Strength:
Looks like it could intensify past 40 West, with a large diameter winds will extend out a large ways from the center.

[Typhoon_Willie]

We just need to monitor the system for now. Of course this is next weeks weather story here. I can see the number of people visiting this site then!

[tracyswfla]

Floydbuster:


Where did you get that avatar? That is Charley passing closest to my house when the lanai was being ripped away...

Along with portions of my roof and 15 year old trees!

[Thunder44]

000
WHXX01 KWBC 041845
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE (AL092005) ON 20050804 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050804 1800 050805 0600 050805 1800 050806 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.6N 34.0W 12.9N 36.1W 13.2N 38.0W 13.4N 39.7W
BAMM 12.6N 34.0W 12.9N 35.6W 13.3N 37.1W 13.8N 38.5W
A98E 12.6N 34.0W 12.8N 36.5W 12.8N 39.2W 12.4N 41.9W
LBAR 12.6N 34.0W 13.0N 36.5W 13.8N 39.0W 14.4N 41.6W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050806 1800 050807 1800 050808 1800 050809 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.5N 41.1W 14.3N 43.8W 16.9N 46.4W 20.5N 49.2W
BAMM 14.4N 39.9W 16.5N 43.3W 19.3N 47.4W 22.1N 51.4W
A98E 11.7N 44.4W 12.0N 48.4W 12.0N 52.2W 12.5N 55.4W
LBAR 14.9N 44.5W 15.9N 50.6W 16.8N 55.8W 19.8N 52.5W
SHIP 53KTS 66KTS 74KTS 76KTS
DSHP 53KTS 66KTS 74KTS 76KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.6N LONCUR = 34.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 12.2N LONM12 = 31.4W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 12.2N LONM24 = 29.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

YEEEE HAWWW!!! TD 9 Baby!!!