Will TD#9 curve out to sea?

[storms in NC]

Fish, climatology says so, most computer models say so, and most importnantly I say so.

You've got to remember though, most models show it just going WNW and we (coastal NC) stick out pretty far...

Yep we do. just hope the waters are fine for fishing this weekend

[brunota2003]

Fish, climatology says so, most computer models say so, and most importnantly I say so.

You've got to remember though, most models show it just going WNW and we (coastal NC) stick out pretty far...

Yep we do. just hope the waters are fine for fishing this weekend

Yea, THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST, THIS IS MY OPINION, the waters this weekend should be fine, its next week that we really have to start watching it... probably around wednesday if i have to guess

[storms in NC]

Why is some of you all calling it Irene and it is don't even been called a TD yet? Just asking

[brunota2003]

Why is some of you all calling it Irene and it is don't even been called a TD yet? Just asking

I have no clue... I normally call it it until it becomes something

[storms in NC]

I go near your part of the woods every week end


My cousin was kill there at the pawn shop

[brunota2003]

cool, i normally go crabbing and fishing on base here at MCAS Cherry Point, but now we cant get on... so we'll probably go with a friend later on this year... srry about ur cousin though...

[WindRunner]

Look at the latest runs on these models, they show it coming at least to the islands before anything happens to them, I say maybe another Isabel, which is not good for me...(i live in coastal NC just west of Morehead City): http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

I'd agree, especially since the more northern runs have either an old initialization point or one very far east. Seems like the further west it gets, the less the models curve it. And this has to be a 5. I-storms since 2003 have been 5s, and 1999 was the last time the I-storm (Irene, coincidentally) wasn't a major one. Climo agrees on the strength factor, as do all of us.

[wxmann_91]

It's too early to tell, but if the models are right, I would say that this could either do a Betsy or Jeanne (stall then move back towards the coast), if the ridge that is suppose to form near the eastern US remains strong as it moves off the coast. Otherwise, it could do an Alberto (have a hard time recurving) if the ridge forms as expected and weakens over the Atlantic. Otherwise, a simple recurvature would be expected if the ridge doesn't form or it is totally weak.

Remember, this isn't a offical forecast, and as of right now, it is still too early to tell if this system will be an Isabel, Hugo, Andrew, Ivan, Fabian, or Karl now. Anybody's guess is as good as anybody else's guess at this stage of the game.

[jasons2k]

OK, I just read thru this entire thread (and the other 95L thread), and not to be disrespectful towards anyone, but this is a joke.

rant

I mean really, ANY predictions, by amateurs, pro mets, the models, the NHC, Joe B., whomever is really just a crapshoot at this point and nothing more. You can do all the analysis you want, pull your hair out, stay up all night, salivate over every word from the next TWD and it won't mean A THING 5 days from now. It's just too far out and too early for any models, or any person, to have a true grasp on this system yet.

/rant

[dwg71]

OK, I just read thru this entire thread (and the other 95L thread), and not to be disrespectful towards anyone, but this is a joke.

rant

I mean really, ANY predictions, by amateurs, pro mets, the models, the NHC, Joe B., whomever is really just a crapshoot at this point and nothing more. You can do all the analysis you want, pull your hair out, stay up all night, salivate over every word from the next TWD and it won't mean A THING 5 days from now. It's just too far out and too early for any models, or any person, to have a true grasp on this system yet.

/rant

Forecast Tracking is not a crapshoot, its actually pretty good compared to Intensity forecasting. We know its not going to go str8 N or E or S or even south of W is extremely unlikely.

I trust that it will go WNW initially and then head more NW and then N. Eventually turning NE. What we dont know is the actual timing.

I'll stick to the Fish call. Its the most plausible at this time. To say its a GOM storm via YUC channel is the least plausible of possibilities as of now.

[feederband]

OK, I just read thru this entire thread (and the other 95L thread), and not to be disrespectful towards anyone, but this is a joke.

rant

I mean really, ANY predictions, by amateurs, pro mets, the models, the NHC, Joe B., whomever is really just a crapshoot at this point and nothing more. You can do all the analysis you want, pull your hair out, stay up all night, salivate over every word from the next TWD and it won't mean A THING 5 days from now. It's just too far out and too early for any models, or any person, to have a true grasp on this system yet.

/rant

Yeah.. but... We are here to talk about tropical systems,and that is what this is...Its just talk....This is what this forum is designed to be...

[SouthFloridawx]

Flop Flop ? The big one that got away? Thankfully it is great that this one will just go way way out there and only affect maybe Bermuda. Thanks for all of your threads most people actually have posted stuff and I have learned a lot.

[jasons2k]

OK, I just read thru this entire thread (and the other 95L thread), and not to be disrespectful towards anyone, but this is a joke.

rant

I mean really, ANY predictions, by amateurs, pro mets, the models, the NHC, Joe B., whomever is really just a crapshoot at this point and nothing more. You can do all the analysis you want, pull your hair out, stay up all night, salivate over every word from the next TWD and it won't mean A THING 5 days from now. It's just too far out and too early for any models, or any person, to have a true grasp on this system yet.

/rant

Yeah.. but... We are here to talk about tropical systems,and that is what this is...Its just talk....This is what this forum is designed to be...

I know...I know...and I agree with you 100% and enjoy the speculation too, it's part of what makes S2K fun. And my post wasn't meant to take away from that aspect per se. It just amuses me sometimes when people seem to proclaim they know what it's going to do, or better yet asking for model links to a system that is so far away, 120/180 hours out really does mean nothing at this point. And then if you extrapolate from that margin of error - to then declare fish or not, GOM or not, whatever, is nothing more than a guess IMO. Not only b/c it is so far out, but also b/c it is so early in its development. Even if it was in the Caribbean we wouldn't have a good model suite until it's at least initialized well. Cindy is an example of that.

[Steve H.]

Yes, right now there is much uncertainty, even though the globals push it out to sea. Things changes and models will adjust. THe good news is that if it curves out to sea we should know sooner rather than later. Much depends on how quickly Harvey exits and the rebuilding of the ridge. Out to sea is always the safe answer, but not necessarily the correct answer.

[jasons2k]

OH FWIW someone asked for JB's take. He says 95L will be a fish and the only immediate tropical threat would be due to in-close development (did not cite specifics there).

OK I just posted what I ranted about. Maybe I need to take my lunch

[Jim Cantore]

it will not go into the cribbian thats what I can say

It will be close to the islands and I think is 50/50 it hits the U.S

[Frank2]

As others have mentioned, i's just too early to say where it will go (the islands of the Caribbean or the U.S.), though the models are still favoring an early recurve - whether it is at 50 or 60W is still unknown, but, the sooner it strengthens, the more likely it is to recurve.

Frank

[Jim Cantore]

Remember Emily in 1993? it was far north

Felix too in 1995 (but we know how that EVENTUALLY ended)

[x-y-no]

12Z run of the GFS surprised me some ...

For 2 days, the 12Z (and 0Z) have been to the right of the 6Z and 18Z runs - but the latest one makes the initial northward turn, but then spretty nearly stalls, and ventually turns back towards the east coast.

I'd still call this a low probability, but it'll be interesting to see if any other models and/or later GFS runs latch onto this idea.

EDIT: It's notable that this run is much slower on developing the system, which may account for this track change. I think the GFS is probably being too slow with it.

[Ivanhater]

12Z run of the GFS surprised me some ...

For 2 days, the 12Z (and 0Z) have been to the right of the 6Z and 18Z runs - but the latest one makes the initial northward turn, but then spretty nearly stalls, and ventually turns back towards the east coast.

I'd still call this a low probability, but it'll be interesting to see if any other models and/or later GFS runs latch onto this idea.

well some pros are saying east coast threat including derek and dt, still to early to know for sure but this might be a trend