95L Invest Thread

[gkrangers]

Essentially the exact same spot...

[vbhoutex]

I think an opportunity to see TD9 posted has passed.. By that I mean when the 5:00 comes out, they will say TS. All sat data says TS.

I have to agree with you on this. I think they will go straight to TS designation.

[cycloneye]

I think an opportunity to see TD9 posted has passed.. By that I mean when the 5:00 comes out, they will say TS. All sat data says TS.

I have to agree with you on this. I think they will go straight to TS designation.

I agree too.

[Thunder44]

I don't think there is going to be special advisory. They will wait til 5pm. They know it's at least TD already. They going to wait for the all the 12z models to come out, before they make a forecast on this storm.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yeah, we have had our share in recent years ( well recent to me) Bertha, Fran, Floyd, and Isabel. I returned to my home on a National Guard Humvee after Fran, and basically moved what was left out. NC, SC, and GA have been lucky since then, but I am watch this pattern closely. Too dang much warm water, and really all the previous history is no comfort this year. I have to remind myself that this storm is in the first week of Aug.not Sept. Irene is a big fat lady (of a CV system) with an overloaded plate of BBQ ( warm water) and a real bad attitude.

Yes it can can fizzle out, I am just having fun ( sort of )

[Jim Cantore]

This thing will be irene to 24 hours

heres the floater

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html

[TS Zack]

The 12z GFS is initializing the system too far East and it is way to slow. The debating begins.....

[cycloneye]

The 12z GFS is initializing the system too far East and it is way to slow. The debating begins.....

How far east iniciates as center right now is around 33w.?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The models where to far right with many storms including Ivan,Emily to note a few. The hurricane models have shifted to the left. It now looks like a good amount of them have this coming close to the islands. The Gfdl 06z has it crossing 20 north at 51 west.

So yes this could get interesting.

[storms in NC]

Yeah, we have had our share in recent years ( well recent to me) Bertha, Fran, Floyd, and Isabel. I returned to my home on a National Guard Humvee after Fran, and basically moved what was left out. NC, SC, and GA have been lucky since then, but I am watch this pattern closely. Too dang much warm water, and really all the previous history is no comfort this year. I have to remind myself that this storm is in the first week of Aug.not Sept. Irene is a big fat lady (of a CV system) with an overloaded plate of BBQ ( warm water) and a real bad attitude.

Yes it can can fizzle out, I am just having fun ( sort of )

I know what you mean here. with floyd we left our home in a boat. That was the last one we had here. I have bad bad feeling this year been way to hot here

[Jim Cantore]

if it gets that close to the Islands then the East coast might be in the line of fire

if it stays far enough south

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Tchp is hot enough all the way to the cape 37 north to support a cat4 or cat5 hurricane. The Tchp maps shows dark blues. Last year they could only support a cat2 maybe a 3 at this time.

[BensonTCwatcher]

The models where to far right with many storms including Ivan,Emily to note a few. The hurricane models have shifted to the left. It now looks like a good amount of them have this coming close to the islands. The Gfdl 06z has it crossing 20 north at 51 west.

So yes this could get interesting.

Matt buddy, it is ALREADY interesting.. the inilizations will get this thread hopping

[WindRunner]

I wish they issued tropical disturbance statements on all systems, not just those closer to land. It would save all of us from this arguing over timing and strength, but I get the feeling that a lot of people like the arguing part.

[storms in NC]

MY rule of thumb is if it goes above 20 we are safe some what

[Scorpion]

Depends on when it goes above 20. At this rate it could pull a Luis, still a fish but impacting the islands.

[mvtrucking]

It looks good

It looks just south of the SAL.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Also the tropical Atlatnic is boiling over. Last year it only had reds/yellows this year it is blue. Which means it has alot of heat.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I just found this. Looks like it stays west for while longer. But it's all about the ridge isn't it?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi?SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&AREA=atlantic/model_overlays&PROD=slp&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=over&DISPLAY=Latest&ARCHIVE=Latest&CGI=over.cgi&CURRENT=20050804.1500.multisat.ir.model_overlays.slp.atlantic_.nogaps.jpg&MOSAIC_SCALE=15

[wxmann_91]

MY rule of thumb is if it goes above 20 we are safe some what

Not exactly.

Isabel was above 20 N when it was only 50 W.

Andrew reached 20 N at 60 W and so did Fran and Floyd.

So there are exceptions, but in this case, it's safe to say that if it goes above 20 N before 60 W, it's goin' fishin.