Tropical Depression 1-C Advisories

[Derek Ortt]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
11 AM HST WED AUG 03 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C HAS FORMED FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CONSIDERED TO BE NEAR 25
KNOTS. ITS CLOUD STRUCTURE HAS BECOME MORE WELL DEFINED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE NONSHEAR WIND
ENVIRONMENT. SST UNDER THE DEPRESSION IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AT 26
DEGREES C. HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN BECOMES QUITE
WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY AND SHOULD PROVIDE EFFECTIVE SHEARING
ALOFT IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THUS WILL STRENGTHEN ONE C TO
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN IT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE PATH SHOULD BECOME MORE EASTERLY AFTER INITIALLY
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHNORTHWEST...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF ONE C IS RESPONSIBLE.

FORECASTER MATSUDA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 15.1N 141.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 15.4N 142.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 15.6N 144.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 15.8N 146.3W 35 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 15.9N 147.9W 30 KT
72HR VT 06/1800Z 16.1N 151.5W 25 KT
96HR VT 07/1800Z 16.3N 155.5W 25 KT
120HR VT 08/1800Z 16.4N 160.0W 20 KT

[Hurricanehink]

Wow! That popped up fast. Could the CPAC finally get a named storm?

[Derek Ortt]

this probably should be stickied with the other advisory threads

[senorpepr]

01C has been added to the S2K Worldwide Tropical Update.

When and if this is upgraded to a tropical storm... it will be Ioke: the Hawai'ian name for Joyce. Ioke is pronounced: EE-OH-KAY

[HurricaneBill]

I remember reading that Oliwa (1997) is the Hawaiian name for "Oliver". Is that true?

[P.K.]

[senorpepr]

I remember reading that Oliwa (1997) is the Hawaiian name for "Oliver". Is that true?

Yes... and it's pronounced OH-LEE-VAH

[senorpepr]

Code: Select all

  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

  TROPICAL DEPRESSION        ONE (CP012005) ON 20050804  0000 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          050804  0000   050804  1200   050805  0000   050805  1200

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    15.3N 141.1W   15.6N 142.9W   16.0N 144.3W   16.4N 145.4W
  BAMM    15.3N 141.1W   15.9N 143.1W   16.6N 144.7W   17.2N 146.0W
  LBAR    15.3N 141.1W   15.3N 142.8W   15.3N 144.5W   15.5N 146.3W
  SHIP        25KTS          32KTS          36KTS          36KTS
  DSHP        25KTS          32KTS          36KTS          36KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          050806  0000   050807  0000   050808  0000   050809  0000

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    17.1N 145.8W   20.1N 144.2W   24.7N 139.2W   28.6N 132.4W
  BAMM    17.9N 147.0W   19.1N 148.7W   20.4N 150.3W   21.5N 152.0W
  LBAR    15.9N 147.8W   17.4N 150.1W   20.2N 150.8W   23.9N 150.5W
  SHIP        35KTS          28KTS          25KTS          21KTS
  DSHP        35KTS          28KTS          25KTS          21KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  15.3N LONCUR = 141.1W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
  LATM12 =  14.7N LONM12 = 139.5W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
  LATM24 =  14.4N LONM24 = 137.4W
  WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   25NM WNDM12 =   20KT
  CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =   50NM SDEPTH =   M
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like by those hurricane models. We might have another storm hitting the United states.

[senorpepr]

Tropical Depression One (01C / 01C) (04/0000Z)
Position: 15.3°N 141.1°W (970 miles ESE from Hilo, Hawai'i)
Movement: WNW at 10 mph
Winds: 30 mph
Pressure: 1008 mb / 29.77''
Dvorak Est: T1.5/1.5

[Derek Ortt]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST WED AUG 03 2005

ONE-C HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE DURING THE DAY AND AT LEAST
ON VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS A MUCH BETTER PRESENTATION. CONVECTION ON THE
OTHER HAND HAS DIMINISHED...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED FOR A WEAK
SYSTEM DURING THE DAY. 00Z SATELLITE FIX ESTIMATES FROM CPHC...SAB
AND JTWC WERE STILL A T1.5 WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 25KT SUSTAINED
WIND. NO NEW MICROWAVE OR SCATTEROMETER DATA TO WORK WITH THIS
AFTERNOON...SO WILL BE KEEPING IT AS A 25KT STORM TO START.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MODEL GUIDANCE AND UW-CIMMS VERTICAL SHEAR
ESTIMATES ALL INDICATE THAT ONE-C IS IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. WINDS ALOFT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AND IT LOOKS LIKE A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF HAWAII IS HELPING TO ESTABLISH AN
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF ONE-C.
CONTINUING WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSPHY THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN FIRE OVERNIGHT. ASSUMING THE CONVECTION IS CLOSE TO THE
CENTER...THIS SHOULD HELP INTENSIFY ONE-C LATE TONITE INTO TOMORROW.
IF THIS INDEED HAPPENS...ONE-C WOULD BE NAMED IOKE...HAWAIIAN FOR
ROSE...AND BE THE FIRST NAMED CENTRAL PACIFIC STORM SINCE 2002. FOR
WHAT ITS WORTH...INTENSITY GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS ONE-C REACHING ABOUT
35KT INTENSITY. GIVEN THAT ONE-C IS RUNNING A SMIDGE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...HAVE EDGED THE FORECAST A BIT NORTH TO
START...THEN TURNING IT DUE WEST FAR TO THE SOUTH OF HAWAII ALONG
THE LINES OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT AFTER 48
HRS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE. A FEW TURN THE
SYSTEM NORTH EAST OF THE ISLANDS...A COUPLE WANT TO BRING A WEAK
SYSTEM OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND THE LAST FEW TAKE IT SOUTHWEST. OUR
FORECAST IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE SPREAD...FAVORING THE FARTHER
SOUTH TRACK SINCE WE DONT SEE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME TO ALLOW ONE-C
TO MOVE MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN 16N OR 17N LATITUDE.

AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENVIRONMENT WONT BE
AS SUPPORTIVE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND DIG
PRETTY FAR SOUTH...RESULTING IN STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD
START TEARING THE SYSTEM APART AND GETTING RID OF CONVECTION.
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY ALL HAPPEN WITHIN 72 HRS. AFTER THAT THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE INTO A LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL/REMNANT LOW
AND START TO TURN MORE SOUTHWEST IN THE LOW LEVEL TRADE FLOW. HAVE
INTRODUCED A HINT OF THIS IN THE FORECAST.


FORECASTER NASH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0300Z 15.5N 141.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 15.9N 143.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 16.3N 145.1W 35 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 16.4N 147.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 16.4N 148.6W 30 KT
72HR VT 07/0000Z 16.4N 152.2W 25 KT
96HR VT 08/0000Z 16.5N 156.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 09/0000Z 16.0N 160.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

[NateFLA]

The irony of this is painful. I just had some friends leave for Hawaii, and they said to me before they left "at least we'll be escaping tropical systems."

Well... they didnt.

[senorpepr]

Code: Select all

  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

  TROPICAL DEPRESSION        ONE (CP012005) ON 20050804  0600 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          050804  0600   050804  1800   050805  0600   050805  1800

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    15.3N 141.6W   15.7N 143.3W   15.9N 144.8W   16.4N 146.0W
  BAMM    15.3N 141.6W   15.9N 143.4W   16.4N 145.1W   17.0N 146.8W
  LBAR    15.3N 141.6W   15.3N 143.1W   15.4N 144.8W   15.8N 146.5W
  SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          29KTS          27KTS
  DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          29KTS          27KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          050806  0600   050807  0600   050808  0600   050809  0600

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    17.2N 146.7W   20.1N 145.4W   23.9N 141.7W   27.1N 136.3W
  BAMM    17.9N 148.1W   19.2N 149.9W   20.1N 151.3W   21.0N 153.2W
  LBAR    16.7N 148.0W   19.4N 149.6W   22.8N 149.8W   26.4N 148.7W
  SHIP        25KTS          17KTS          17KTS           0KTS
  DSHP        25KTS          17KTS          17KTS           0KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  15.3N LONCUR = 141.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
  LATM12 =  15.0N LONM12 = 140.5W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
  LATM24 =  14.5N LONM24 = 138.5W
  WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   35NM WNDM12 =   25KT
  CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =   90NM SDEPTH =   S
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

[P.K.]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
5 AM HST THU AUG 04 2005

ONE-C HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...WITH THE INITIAL POSITION REPRESENTING A COMPROMISE BETWEEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A REMNANT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A POSSIBLE LLCC BEGINNING TO EMERGE FROM BENEATH HIGH CLOUDS A BIT FARTHER WEST. THE REMNANT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS THE FEATURE KEYED UPON FOR MOST SATELLITE FIXES. THE EMERGING LLCC IS A VERY RECENT DEVELOPMENT...OCCURRING WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. A SINGLE CB MARKS THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS LLCC. CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO SUDDENLY SWITCH THE INITIAL POSITION TO THIS NEW SUSPECTED FEATURE...HENCE THE COMPROMISE.

ONCE AGAIN...TRACK GUIDANCE VARIES WIDELY...WITH DEEP LAYER GUIDANCE WANTING TO CURVE ONE-C TO THE NORTH LONG BEFORE REACHING THE ISLANDS. DEEP GUIDANCE WOULD ONLY BE USEFUL WITH A VIGOROUSLY CONVECTIVE ONE-C. UNTIL VIGOROUS AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION OCCURS...WE WILL USE SHALLOW-BASED GUIDANCE WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER TO THE LEFT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE LAST ONE...JUST TO THE RIGHT OF GFDL. THIS WILL TAKE ONE-C COMFORTABLY SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR STRENGTHENING ONE-C TO TROPICAL STORM THRESHOLD WAS BASED ON AN ANTICIPATED UPSURGE OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...THE CURRENT FORECAST NOW MAXES ONE-C AT ONLY 30 KT FROM 12 THROUGH 48 HOURS OUT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH MOST INTENSITY GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH GFDL WANTS TO SUDDENLY STRENGTHEN ONE-C TO 40 KTS RIGHT AT 72 HOURS AFTER GRADUAL WEAKENING TO 19 KTS AT 48 HOURS. WE ANTICIPATE A SLOW DISSIPATION OF ONE-C THROUGH 120 HOURS...WITH LOW LEVEL TRADES PROVIDING PRIMARY STEERING.

FORECASTER POWELL

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 15.2N 143.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 15.5N 144.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 15.6N 146.8W 30 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 15.6N 149.3W 30 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 15.6N 152.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 07/1200Z 15.5N 157.4W 25 KT
96HR VT 08/1200Z 14.9N 162.8W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 09/1200Z 14.2N 168.0W 15 KT...REMNANT LOW

[WindRunner]

Well, so much for the named system.

[senorpepr]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
11 AM HST THU AUG 04 2005

AT 11 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ONE-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 144.6 WEST OR ABOUT 760 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
HILO HAWAII.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM HST POSITION...15.1 N...144.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM HST.

FORECASTER KODAMA



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
11 AM HST THU AUG 04 2005

ONE-C REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...EVEN WITH
THE EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES. THE CENTER WAS RELOCATED A BIT
FARTHER WEST AND HAS ACCELERATED A BIT...REFLECTING A GREATER
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES IN THIS SHALLOW SYSTEM. AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM WAS JUST WEST OF THE CENTER WITH NO OTHER
APPARENT DEEP CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED DATA INDICATED
THAT ONE-C IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS.

ONE-C REMAINS IN AN AREA WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE AT BEST. THE GFS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE DISSIPATES
THE SYSTEM BY 48 HOURS BUT SHIPS AND SHIFOR MAINTAIN ONE-C AT
DEPRESSION STRENGTH AND EVEN INCREASE ITS INTENSITY TO TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH AFTER 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL FAVOR
THE GFS AND GFDL TREND TOWARD DISSIPATION MAINLY DUE TO THE
PROJECTED INCREASE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE FULL TRACK GUIDANCE
PACKAGE VARIES CONSIDERABLY...BUT THE SPREAD OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS
FAVORS A WESTWARD TRACK. WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY ALONG THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL TRACK AND THE DYNAMIC CONSENSUS. THIS TAKES THE CENTER OF
ONE-C WELL SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG A WESTWARD
TRACK.


FORECASTER KODAMA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 15.1N 144.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 15.2N 146.5W 25 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 15.3N 148.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 06/0600Z 15.4N 151.3W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 06/1800Z 15.4N 153.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[P.K.]

Last advisory on TD1-C.

974
WTPA42 PHFO 050235
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST THU AUG 04 2005

TD ONE-C HAD ONE LAST BURST OF CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY...BUT THAT
HAS FADED...AND IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO A LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL HAS
EMERGED FROM BENEATH THE HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS. GIVEN THE LACK OF
CONVECTION...HFO...SAB AND JTWC WERE ALL NOT ABLE TO OBTAIN FIX
ESTIMATES...MEANING THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY BELOW 25 KT INTENSITY.
VISIBLE IMAGERY LOOPS INDICATE THAT THERE IS NO LONGER ANY WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE TD ONE-C...MEANING THAT IT HAS DEGENERATED
INTO JUST AN OPEN WAVE. AM GOING WITH A 25KT INTENSITY TO
START...BUT THAT IS LIKELY QUITE GENEROUS. TD ONE-C IS REALLY
NOTHING MORE THAN JUST A LOW LEVEL SWIRL.

DESPITE SUPPORTIVE UPPER LEVELS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SHEAR...IT LOOKS
LIKE SSTS WERE JUST A LITTLE TOO COOL...SO CONVECTION NEVER REALLY
FIRED LAST NITE AND THIS MORNINGS BURST WAS A LITTLE TOO LATE. ALSO
LIKELY PLAYING A ROLE IN THE DEMISE OF TD ONE-C WAS THE CONVECTION
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM NEAR 10N 140W WHICH POSSIBLY CUT OFF INFLOW
OF HIGH ENERGY AIR INTO TD ONE-C. ON A SIDE NOTE...WE ARE NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING ANY DEVELOPMENT FROM THAT CONVECTION IN THE
NEAR FUTURE.

THE REMNANTS OF TD ONE-C WILL BE MONITORED IN THE UNLIKELY EVENT IT
STRENGTHENS. BARRING THAT POSSIBILITY...THIS WILL BE THE FINAL
BULLETIN ON THIS SYSTEM.

FORECASTER NASH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 14.5N 145.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 05/1200Z 14.4N 147.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 06/0000Z 14.4N 149.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 06/1200Z 14.4N 152.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED