The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Western Atlantic Tropical Summary - WATS Up on August 4, 2005
<img src="http://www.diamondheadweather.com/wats20050804.jpg">
The Western Atlantic features Tropical Storm Harvey, moving off to the
North/Northeast. Harvey is a 65MPH tropical storm and I so not expect
Harvey to reach Hurricane status. Now that Harvey is past Bermuda,
the only threats from Harvey are in shipping lanes.
Two upper level lows and dry air compose the rest of the area from 40W
to 60W.
Two tropical waves continue moving westward through the Caribbean
Sea and I do not expect development from either of these systems.
WATS UP August 4, 2005
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
WATS UP August 4, 2005
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x-y-no wrote:I'm really liking the format of these presentations. I think this will do real well when the season starts hopping again.
Well thank you Jan!
I think the format will be very good, once things get clicking again.
I'm amazed by the impact of the SAL on the Atlantic basin.
Then there's the MJO - but that should change phases soon.
Who knows, maybe things will start clicking again soon.
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A couple of the recent AFD's out of the NWS Melbourne office indicate a ridge beginning to take hold next week with the center being over North Carolina and then it is forecast to slowly expand west and south. It will be interesting to see if the pattern that has been persistent over the past couple weeks in the area becomes more condusive for development. It doesn't indicate it as a deep layer ridge however.
From NWS Melbourne Thurs morning discussion/ outlook:
THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN DISPLACED NORTH OF THE US
BORDER WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE SE STATES. HIGH PRESSURE IS
ADVERTISED TO SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN IN THE
WAKE OF TS HARVEY. DEVELOPING SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS BY SUN WILL ACT TO INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW AND
CORRESPONDINGLY FAVOR POPS OVER THE INTERIOR BY SAT/SUN. WL CONTINUE
NO'S NEAR CLIMO DUE TO AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WIND REGIME.
MON-THU...WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS SHOWS LITTLE
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE
IS SHOWN DEVELOPING SOUTH AND WEST BY GFS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
UKMET INTO THE GULF AROUND MIDWEEK. WHICH WL ACT TO REDUCE POPS BY
10 TO 20 PERCENT FROM CLIMO DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.
From NWS Melbourne Thurs morning discussion/ outlook:
THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN DISPLACED NORTH OF THE US
BORDER WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE SE STATES. HIGH PRESSURE IS
ADVERTISED TO SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN IN THE
WAKE OF TS HARVEY. DEVELOPING SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS BY SUN WILL ACT TO INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW AND
CORRESPONDINGLY FAVOR POPS OVER THE INTERIOR BY SAT/SUN. WL CONTINUE
NO'S NEAR CLIMO DUE TO AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WIND REGIME.
MON-THU...WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS SHOWS LITTLE
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE
IS SHOWN DEVELOPING SOUTH AND WEST BY GFS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
UKMET INTO THE GULF AROUND MIDWEEK. WHICH WL ACT TO REDUCE POPS BY
10 TO 20 PERCENT FROM CLIMO DUE TO SUBSIDENCE.
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