95L Invest Thread

[Scorpion]

It will likely be a TS at 5 if organization keeps occuring.

[ALhurricane]

I see no reason why this shouldn't now be classified a TD. There is plenty of evidence to support it. QS passes have indicated a definite low level circulation, banding features continue to improve, and convection has been persistent. All in all a pretty good candidate for a TD as well as Hurricane Irene 3-5 days down the road.

[Thunder44]

Omg they are going to wait intill 5pm on this? This thing will likely as heck be a tropical storm at that time. This is the most oreganized tropical distrabance ever. I don't believe they will not upgrade what could be more powerful then Emily.

Oh, please Matt. Don't get too worked up on when TPC wants start writing advisories on this TD. We know what's probably out there, and that's good enough for me.

[Javlin]

Does it really matter at this point and time it is not a threat to any land areas.We all know that the signature is quite impressive.I keep looking at the 12km resolution of ATL in WV imagery and have a tough time seeing the weakness in the ridge.The ULL over the Islands seems to be almost going due W now.The ULL to the N just reformed in the last 12hrs or so.It looks to me the slot is narrow and should be coming up soon.This is also shown by some of the models and the 300' to 320' movement should start late this evening.Piece of energy N of Harvey moving due E doe s Harvey follow?


http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atwv.html

If the system becomes strong enough I might be more incline to the Northward draw enentually.But the system needs to do it pretty soon(24-36hrs?) to make it happen.If I am seeing something wrong by all means correct me.And by the way lets not use models as the counter point please let's use sat's and ones thoughts.

[Frank2]

A developing disturbance, far from land, and likely to recurve into the mid-Atlantic - probably some reasons as to why the NHC might wait until later today to begin writing advisories, and not because the NHC/NWS ignores it completely (per the Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert in an earlier post).

Golly - the things some folks here sure do get excited over!

Frank

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is why we are here is to watch hurricanes/cyclones. So yes we get excited over them. I like to see the record book half way useable. The nhc job is to write Advisories on cyclones to keep track of them. Remember there is shiping or sea interest. So by not issuing Advisories on a quickly developing tropical cyclone is wrong. This could become the next Karl.

There is no reason not to upgrade.
1# They upgrade any tropical cyclone. It doe's not matter if its a million miles from land. At least they better because if not the records are worstless.

2# It go's into the record books

3# People can start really watching it. Not us but other people.


Is it really so wrong for me to do what I do?

[MortisFL]

I'm upset I voted it to be a TD at 11:00am on the storm2k poll.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

At least not one at 11am.

[gkrangers]

QuikSCAT looks less defined today, than it did yesterday, may have something to do with it.

[Dean4Storms]

Just an Ob. here, noting the lack of convection on the northern half of the periphery of 95L, the LLC is located just at the northern edge of the convection firing in the center. If this remains it could cause the system to track further southward than what the models are depicting and we might have a somewhat weaker system in the short term. How many times have we seen a storm with most of its convection on the south side especially as it is riding around the southern edge of a ridge cause it to either wobble or move more wsw?

[Thunder44]

Let's see what the TWO coming out soon says.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

You mean the quickscats=the same tool that did not show a closed LLC for Charley or Emily for a time????

The satellite shows a very well defined LLC.

[AussieMark]

It looks good

[Brent]

A developing disturbance, far from land, and likely to recurve into the mid-Atlantic - probably some reasons as to why the NHC might wait until later today to begin writing advisories, and not because the NHC/NWS ignores it completely (per the Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert in an earlier post).

Golly - the things some folks here sure do get excited over!

Frank

Your at the biggest board for tropical weather freaks on the internet...

[gkrangers]

You mean the quickscats=the same tool that did not show a closed LLC for Charley or Emily for a time????

The satellite shows a very well defined LLC.

It was just an observation...

[Thunder44]

11:30am TWO:

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 575 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SATELLITE
IMAGES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE
FORMING AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[HURAKAN]

Lets wait six more frustrating hours.

[Thunder44]

Lets wait six more frustrating hours.

We'll know by mid-afternoon when the 18z models come out.

[gkrangers]

Its just an advisory guys...big deal...the only new data we will recieve with the first advisory is the NHC discussion. Other than that, you can stare at all the sat loops, ship reports, etc that they do.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The thing is its "offical then" It go's into the 2005 record books. In we also get to have the nhc forecasters options on it.