95L Invest Thread

[deltadog03]

It looks to be heading almost DUE WEST...does look really good attm...

[Andrew92]

This thing is already a TS folks....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

If they don't upgrade to at least a TD at 11, I will think they are waiting for an eye to develop to upgrade at all.

-Andrew92

[Typhoon_Willie]

Looks nice on the visible floater 2 as well!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[cycloneye]

WTNT 22 KNGU 041200
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 041200Z AUG 05//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 33.0W TO 13.0N 38.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED VICINITY 12.0N 32.0W IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. SCATTEROMETRY INDICATES A SURFACE
CIRCULATION NEAR 12.0N 32.0W WITH WINDS NEAR 30 KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CENTER. THIS CIRCULATION HAS PERSISTED FOR 24 HOURS AND HAS A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF ABOUT 5 MB LESS THAN ITS SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. CONDITIONS IN
THE UPPER ATMOSHPERE ARE BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 200 MB, WEAK WIND SHEAR AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DISTURBANCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYZED
FROM SATELLITE DATA IS 82F(28C). SYSTEM MOVEMTN FORECAST IS WEST-NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 051200Z.

[dixiebreeze]

Looking at the visible this clearly has a LLC. I don't see why it is not at least a depression.

Unless a system is near land, they are not so anxious to upgrade.

The IR Floater won't be refocused on 95L until it reaches the 40 mark.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Mmmmmhmmm 30 kts, anticyclone, and trough to the NW for ventilation. Need not even mention the SST's Even for dummy like me, it's not hard to see the reson for W component of movement...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/QUNA00latest.gif granted we need the update.

[wxman57]

Here's a new McIdas image. I agree that this is already a TD, but I don't think it is a TS yet. Center is on the northeast side of the heavier convection near 13.3N/32.5W:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene12.gif">

[Nimbus]

ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 200 MB, WEAK WIND SHEAR AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DISTURBANCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYZED
FROM SATELLITE DATA IS 82F(28C).

This thing just exploded at the Diurnal max.
Looked pretty good on the IR during the previous diurnal as well.
There is a lot of running room with steadily increasing SST's all the way in so this could be one to remember.

[DESTRUCTION5]

ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 200 MB, WEAK WIND SHEAR AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DISTURBANCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYZED
FROM SATELLITE DATA IS 82F(28C).

This thing just exploded at the Diurnal max.
Looked pretty good on the IR during the previous diurnal as well.
There is a lot of running room with steadily increasing SST's all the way in so this could be one to remember.

No doubt Irene 2005 will be a nasty MOFO Fish or no fish...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Of course I have to post the discussion out of Ruskin (Tampa) regarding the status and future status of the ridge...

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-WED)...LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING INITIALLY
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA SATURDAY
NIGHT IS PROGD TO BUILD WEST AND NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
DURING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THERE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

The ridge looking strong over florida at least until next wednesday...so that gives us 6 days of a strong ridge. It may weaken after that, which leads me to think thsi could be a recurve to the Carolinas or a near coastal miss.

[Frank2]

I'm not sure if this link has been posted, but, here is the floater loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Frank

[cycloneye]

[Scorpion]

Wow. Looks beautiful. Hope it becomes a large, powerful system but stays away from the islands.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow. Looks beautiful. Hope it becomes a large, powerful system but stays away from the islands.

I agree I hope it becomes a cat5. It can be a fish this year in do so because of the Tchp over the central Atlatnic between 25 to 35 north/55 to 65 west. It could with out quastion make a cat5.

[seaswing]

Tell you what..... It looks BIG!

[wxman57]

It IS the type of system, in the type of environment, that would have a good chance of becoming a major hurricane. The good news is that evey single model indicates the weak ridge to the north and a northward turn by 50W. I don't see any reason to think "Irene" will reach the east U.S. coast given the current model data, but I'm not ready to 100% rule out that possibility yet.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This thing makes many of those Gulf of Mexico tropical storm look like nothing. This looks more like a Western Pacific system. Also the hurricane models are shifting to the left this morning. Gfdl doe's not take it north of 20 intill 51 west. Instead of mid 40 something.

Yes this is a depression. Maybe even a little more.

[Scorpion]

Looks like it will hold up to the I tradition of being big and bad, but at least for now it seems that it will be unlikely to affect land.

[Steve H.]

A thing of Beauty

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Omg they are going to wait intill 5pm on this? This thing will likely as heck be a tropical storm at that time. This is the most oreganized tropical distrabance ever. I don't believe they will not upgrade what could be more powerful then Emily.