Will TD#9 curve out to sea?

[ThunderMate]

Will 95L curve out to sea or miss the connection and continue west to west north west and threaten the US in time to come?

[deltadog03]

well, my opinion is that it will miss the trof...its already pretty far out ahead of it...I would say W or WNW to atleast the islands..

[MortisFL]

GFS model has been consistent on the ridge weakening and sending 95L northward in a few days. The 06z GFS had it further west though before getting picked up.

[vacanechaser]

Yes it does take it further west... Lets see if that trend continues... If so, it may come further west..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[x-y-no]

Not just the GFS - all the global models recurve this system out at sea.

I think the odds of this thing missing the connection and continuing west are extremely low.

Jan

[brunota2003]

Look at the latest runs on these models, they show it coming at least to the islands before anything happens to them, I say maybe another Isabel, which is not good for me...(i live in coastal NC just west of Morehead City): http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I think it will miss the connection to go up through the weakened area of the ridge and then continue on towards the WNW until the ridge builds back in, then follow the southern periphery until the ridge backs east and go more to the NW and N, recurving and being a Carolina threat. Unless the ridge pulls east quickly, then it may just be a coastal miss and become an incredibly strong fishy. Surf will be up on the east coast for sure though!

quote out of Ruskin NWS (Tampa) talks about the ridge for next week:

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-WED)...LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING INITIALLY
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA SATURDAY
NIGHT IS PROGD TO BUILD WEST AND NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
DURING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THERE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

[x-y-no]

Yes it does take it further west... Lets see if that trend continues... If so, it may come further west..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

There's an ongoing flip/flop in the track with the 0Z and 12Z runs being to the right of the 6Z and 18Z runs.

My guess is that the upcoming 12Z run will recurve it at 60W or so.

Jan

[boca]

Nobody can predict if Irene will become a fish or not wait 10 minutes the models will change again. The system is 4 days from the islands.We really haven't had much of a strong Bermuda high recently so if a were to wager I'd say recurevature.

[MortisFL]

Some models are also picking up on another low pressure system to the south of 95L in a few days that might not get picked up by the weakness.

[x-y-no]

Some models are also picking up on another low pressure system to the south of 95L in a few days that might not get picked up by the weakness.

Yes - several of yesterday's GFS runs were very bullish on that - but the last couple are losing it - possibly due to interaction with a slower-moving 95L.

I'm not ready to abandon the idea of a follow-on wave sneaking by to the south yet - I think the UKMET may have a better grasp of the speed 95L will move at than GFS does.

Jan

[deltadog03]

but, here is the thing...this is moving slower than normal waves out here. The trof is really retrograding WEST...I think this wave is moving too slow to be picked up by it. also, the ridge should start to build in over the SE US...depending on how long it stays there i just don't see a fish right now..BUT, its still waaaay to early to tell

[dwg71]

Fish, climatology says so, most computer models say so, and most importnantly I say so.

[deltadog03]

Fish, climatology says so, most computer models say so, and most importnantly I say so.

gonna eat crow if your wrong??

[brunota2003]

Fish, climatology says so, most computer models say so, and most importnantly I say so.

You've got to remember though, most models show it just going WNW and we (coastal NC) stick out pretty far...

[dwg71]

Fish, climatology says so, most computer models say so, and most importnantly I say so.

gonna eat crow if your wrong??

Sure, I havent had any yet this Summer, I'm getting hungry, but most indicators are that this going to head to sea...

[EDR1222]

I think it will recurve before getting close to the islands, IMHO. Maybe around 55-60 west. Hope I don't have to digest any crow soon!

[jimvb]

GFS runs are more reliable at 00Z and 12Z then at 06Z and 18Z, when less information is available. This favors 95L going fish.

Storms coming after it are what I am concerned about - three of them.

[jimvb]

GFS runs are more reliable at 00Z and 12Z then at 06Z and 18Z, when less information is available. This favors 95L going fish.

Storms coming after it are what I am concerned about - three of them.

[dhweather]

This will go out to sea.