95L Invest Thread

[MortisFL]

I'm staying up waiting for the freaking Advisorie.

So your staying up till 11:00 am?

[drezee]

There is a bit of easternly Shear.

[cycloneye]

SAT imagery

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The visible shows a really good looking system this morning.

[johngaltfla]

It is becoming quite impressive. And it is in that neighborhood that I don't care for. If the high builds in strong enough, this thing could be a real problem in 10-14 days...

[BamaMan]

I guess its such a long way from the US mainland that only time will tell, but isn't looking like a possible fish? Moreso than a US Storm?

[WindRunner]

That looks better than Gert ever did, NHC needs to wake up and do something! What are they waiting for?

[Thunder44]

This system need to be on the floater on the NHC site. It's harder to see on GHCC site from an angle.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking at the visible this clearly has a LLC. I don't see why it is not at least a depression.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

convection is firing right over the LLC.
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

They did not issue the hurricane models with Harvey. That could mean they are thinking about upgrading. In once they make the choice they will come out.

[Frank2]

This will probably be TD9 later this morning, but, so far the model runs are indicating it recurving east of the islands. If this is true, then this would be the third system out of the last four that has a purely oceanic track (Franklin, Harvey, and possibly Irene) - it might be a busy season, but, if 90% of the named systems recurve away from land, then in the end the season's outcome will be much better than was expected or feared.

Of course it's still relatively early, but, the long-range GFS does indicate a continued weakness in the Atlantic ridge, and while this model has it's errors, it has consistently held to this weakness over the past 2-3 weeks - and has been correct so far, and is why the public needs to understand that while statistically this may be a record season, no one knows exactly where these records will be accomplished - whether it be over coastal communities or at sea.

Frank

[cycloneye]

04/1100 UTC 12.4N 32.5W T1.0/1.0 95 -- Atlantic Ocean

[Thunder44]

NRL site:

95LINVEST.30kts-1008mb-123N-327W.jpg

[wx247]

This will probably be TD9 later this morning, but, so far the model runs are indicating it recurving east of the islands. If this is true, then this would be the third system out of the last four that has a purely oceanic track (Franklin, Harvey, and possibly Irene) - it might be a busy season, but, if 90% of the named systems recurve away from land, then in the end the season's outcome will be much better than was expected or feared.

Of course it's still relatively early, but, the long-range GFS does indicate a continued weakness in the Atlantic ridge, and while this model has it's errors, it has consistently held to this weakness over the past 2-3 weeks - and has been correct so far, and is why the public needs to understand that while statistically this may be a record season, no one knows exactly where these records will be accomplished - whether it be over coastal communities or at sea.

Frank

If it is going to be a record season I would just as soon they all be fishies, but that is just me.

[Wnghs2007]

TWD this morning wasnt very informative

A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED TO THE E OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
12N30W DRIFTING WNW. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE LOW TO BEYOND THE TROPICAL WAVE
FROM 10.5N-15.5N BETWEEN 30W-36W.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL952005) ON 20050804 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050804 1200 050805 0000 050805 1200 050806 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.3N 32.7W 12.5N 34.5W 12.7N 36.5W 13.0N 38.4W
BAMM 12.3N 32.7W 12.4N 34.2W 12.5N 35.8W 12.8N 37.5W
A98E 12.3N 32.7W 12.3N 35.1W 12.4N 37.7W 12.4N 40.3W
LBAR 12.3N 32.7W 12.5N 35.1W 13.0N 37.7W 13.7N 40.8W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050806 1200 050807 1200 050808 1200 050809 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.4N 40.2W 14.5N 43.2W 16.8N 46.2W 20.1N 49.2W
BAMM 13.6N 39.1W 15.6N 42.6W 18.1N 46.7W 20.3N 51.1W
A98E 11.8N 42.8W 11.1N 47.5W 9.8N 52.0W 9.0N 55.6W
LBAR 13.8N 43.7W 14.9N 50.0W 15.0N 55.3W 16.7N 56.0W
SHIP 42KTS 54KTS 59KTS 59KTS
DSHP 42KTS 54KTS 59KTS 59KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 32.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 12.2N LONM12 = 30.2W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 12.2N LONM24 = 28.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Frank2]

Re: wx247's post

I agree, and you are in Missouri - imagine how I feel living down here in South Florida!

I like looking at a hurricane from satellite, just like anyone, but, after a month or more of gas, food and material shortages last Fall, most here are nervously waiting (and praying) to see what happens this season.

Frank

P.S. Looking at the above model runs - this so far looks to be another recurving system.

[MortisFL]

06z GFDL taking 95L to Hurricane strength in 126 hrs.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This thing is already a TS folks....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html