MODEL shows cane over ne ga in 5 days!!!

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
rainstorm

MODEL shows cane over ne ga in 5 days!!!

#1 Postby rainstorm » Thu Aug 04, 2005 5:56 am

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... hour=120hr
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#2 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 04, 2005 5:59 am

Its possible but not likely...But worth watching... :roll:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
MortisFL
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 391
Age: 42
Joined: Mon Jul 21, 2003 9:01 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:
Contact MortisFL

#3 Postby MortisFL » Thu Aug 04, 2005 5:59 am

the very reliable MM5 *coughs*
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:
Contact WindRunner

#4 Postby WindRunner » Thu Aug 04, 2005 6:02 am

Don't worry, that's the worst model they have. It develops the low that's in the N central gulf. Considering it shows it developing inland into a Cat1(?) , you have nothing to worry about. :D
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#5 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 04, 2005 6:03 am

Even so this is the start of a 500 year active period. At least I think so. I don't think this make it out of the boxs this system.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
EDR1222
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1253
Joined: Mon Nov 10, 2003 12:58 pm
Location: Melbourne, FL

#6 Postby EDR1222 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 6:10 am

Anything seems possible the way this year is going.
0 likes   
Top
wxcrazytwo

#7 Postby wxcrazytwo » Thu Aug 04, 2005 7:01 am

I thought the mm5FSU is stinky.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
weatherwindow
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 904
Joined: Mon Sep 20, 2004 9:48 am
Location: key west/ft lauderdale

#8 Postby weatherwindow » Thu Aug 04, 2005 7:40 am

a former colleague of mine, who is a senior forecaster for nws/eyw, used to refer to the old avn as the "disney model" for its propensity to spin up a trop cyclone at the drop of a hat....i do believe that we now have a new candidate for the "disney" designation .....no disrespect intended. 8-) ......rich
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Trader Ron
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 928
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 7:25 pm
Location: Naples,Fl
Contact:
Contact Trader Ron

#9 Postby Trader Ron » Thu Aug 04, 2005 8:22 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Even so this is the start of a 500 year active period. At least I think so. I don't think this make it out of the boxs this system.


Huh...500 years? :roll: :D
0 likes   
Top
Jim Cantore

#10 Postby Jim Cantore » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:34 am

it is possible but I dont see it happening
0 likes   
Top
Jim Cantore

#11 Postby Jim Cantore » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:35 am

can someone send me the site when all these models are
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TS Zack
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 925
Joined: Thu Jul 01, 2004 6:23 pm
Location: Louisiana
Contact:
Contact TS Zack

#12 Postby TS Zack » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:38 am

Thats baroclinic I think.
0 likes   
Top
skufful
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 244
Joined: Sat Nov 01, 2003 6:37 pm
Location: Beaufort, SC

#13 Postby skufful » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:39 am

One would think it would lose some strength over land, and not still be a hurricane in North Georgia. Don't see it.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxmann_91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8013
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
Location: Southern California
Contact:
Contact wxmann_91

#14 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:42 am

Hurricane Floyd wrote:can someone send me the site when all these models are


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
storms in NC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2338
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2005 2:58 pm
Location: Wallace,NC 40 miles NE of Wilm
Contact:
Contact storms in NC

#15 Postby storms in NC » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:44 am

it wouldn't be Irene( to be) cause it would take 7-9 days to get there
0 likes   
Top
skufful
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 244
Joined: Sat Nov 01, 2003 6:37 pm
Location: Beaufort, SC

#16 Postby skufful » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:59 am

The model has this forming near NO, so correct, no irene
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
BayouVenteux
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 775
Age: 64
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 3:26 pm
Location: Ascension Parish, Louisiana (30.3 N 91.0 W)

#17 Postby BayouVenteux » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:59 am

storms in NC wrote:it wouldn't be Irene( to be) cause it would take 7-9 days to get there


Unless another run has been generated since I last looked at it earlier this morning, that low over GA depicted is one that the MM5 FSU spins up over SE Louisiana/S Mississippi, then moves off to the NE. While there is troughiness and an area of circulation popping up...mostly over land, nothing has warranted any second glances thus far...just garden variety afternoon t-storms and downpours in the forecast for the next 3 or 4 days.

more on the area:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=69747
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cheezyWXguy, riapal and 128 guests