2006 activity poll

[dhweather]

Dr. William Gray has indicated that we are in a multi-decadal period
of increased tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin.

Will 2006 be similar to 2004 and 2005 (extreme) 1995-2003 (moderate)
revert back to normal numbers (average) or much lower numbers
(below average)

I know, there's a lot of variables to predict this, but what is your gut feel?

[WeatherEmperor]

Im not even gonna dare and try to predict the activity for next year. We havent even reached the peak of this one.

<RICKY>

[Andrew92]

My gut says moderate. Up until recently, only Ernesto gave me any bad vibes. But now I'm beginning to have a funny feeling about the name Joyce for next year.

But let's get through '05 first.

-Andrew92

[dhweather]

My gut doesn't see three consecuvite years like 2004-5, but that's me.

Mother nature will have a lot to say about this.

[Astro_man92]

Im not even gonna dare and try to predict the activity for next year. We havent even reached the peak of this one.

<RICKY>

agreed I have now Idea what to expect

[DoctorHurricane2003]

well in my opinion, 2003 should be considered extreme as well.......considering it was the 3rd most active season on record in the satellite era (1995-19 1969-19 2003-16).

[feederband]

At this rate 2005 might just bleed into 2006...

[x-y-no]

Sheesh ... ask me next March or April ...

But what the hey ... I'll roll the dice and say we have an El Nino year - lower than average.

Jan

[WeatherEmperor]

Sheesh ... ask me next March or April ...

But what the hey ... I'll roll the dice and say we have an El Nino year - lower than average.

Jan

Yup. Your guess is as good as mine at this point.

<RICKY>

[Jim Cantore]

the pace these last few seasons have been goin (03-present) I can see us being at Lesilie by now next year

[Astro_man92]

Sheesh ... ask me next March or April ...

But what the hey ... I'll roll the dice and say we have an El Nino year - lower than average.

Jan

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!I hate El Nino. you no in spanish I think El Nino means little boy and El nina means little Girl I hop we get a strong El nina next year


Here is how i see it we have an El nino every 4 years and an el nina every 5 years right well every once in a while they will both happen in ther same year than we might get 8 or 9 years in a row with out an el nino right

[Huckster]

El = masculine
La = feminine

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm looking for a strong La nina to develop.

[weatherwindow]

my thinking, over the long term, has been extended near neutal enso conditions thru 2005 with a gradual transition to a full blown la nina in place aug-oct 2006. looking back, the last clear cut nina was present 98-99. this cycle of the ATC favors fewer and less intense nino episodes, interspersed with more frequent and substantial nina episodes. my expectation of comparable ssts, coupled with the possibility of a significant la nina leads me to suggest more hyperactivity during the 2006 season......rich

[Petmom]

Dr. William Gray has indicated that we are in a multi-decadal period
of increased tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin.

Will 2006 be similar to 2004 and 2005 (extreme) 1995-2003 (moderate)
revert back to normal numbers (average) or much lower numbers
(below average)

I know, there's a lot of variables to predict this, but what is your gut feel?

I think it may be similar to 2004 and 2005.

[OuterBanker]

I won't even begin to think about next year until we get through this year. But I do remember last year and how no one thought that we would ever see a season like last year ever again. Think again. Living on the coast is really becoming a challenge.

[Scorpion]

I heard from some sources that 2006 might become a La Nina year. If so, then I would predict it to be worse than 2004 or 2005.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think we are on a big upswing. A active period...It will be normal over the next 20 years for last years events to happen.