95L Invest Thread

[BensonTCwatcher]

Depression?? we have cure. Next stop TS I'd say

[/img]http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Dangit...NCEP solution QS sorry about the link

[wxman57]

well seems to early to prog a system that hasn't even formed yet? Meaning jose.. The GFS seems to be the model this saeson from what I have seen.

Definitely too early for Jose. Just a curiosity in the model runs for now.

[Wnghs2007]

10:30 TWO For 95L

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM
IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Based on QS and satellite, that's a bunny of a call. There are enough uncontaminated barbs at 30,35, and 40 kts that it is easily TD now and could well be TS by mid morning tomorrow. No threat to land so no need to rush it I guess.

[Swimdude]

95L looks VERY impressive...

[WXFIEND]

wow... I can't believe I'm looking so closely at a wave near Africa right now... what's WRONG with me?!?!

[SouthFloridawx]

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Alot of people point out that the models show this puppy recurving in the long run. Funny thing is I recall the models doing the same thing with Frances last year, and we all know what happened there. My point is, it is way to early to say that it will, or will not, be a fish.


Hybridstorm_November2001

[wxmann_91]

Is it just me, or is this puppy HUGE????? We could be seeing another Typhoon Tip (in terms of size, not strength BTW), I've never seen a wave off the coast of Africa this large and full of convection.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This is one sexy tropical wave, if waves may be called that LOL...

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yes, symmetrical curved bands. closed LLC, 20-35 kt winds. I guess they need to verify pressure to make it TD. But it IS one now. I hope it sucks in some dry air somewhere rather intensify or organize on the scale it is now. The outflow pattern is well defined in all quadrants. Can always fizzle, but it sure looks impressive now...for a measly wave

[mahicks]

OMG!!

I went to work this morning, came back and found an 8 page thread on a new invest!! WOW

8 pages in 4 hours too!

I guess I'll go back and start from the begining.

[drezee]

Cycloneye, you just beat me to it! I was thinking I might have a chance to start one. Oh well. You're faster than I.

Storm looking better, though.

Was that a joke or something? That's like reaching 0 Kelvin...impossible!

[clfenwi]

00Z global models....comparisions are to today's 12Z and last night's 00Z runs...

GFS... left of previous forecast... a flip from previous forecast... further left than prev 00Z...also slower than 12Z...across 20N at 56 W or so in 138 h...extended forecast curves storm before 60° W...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

...Canadian... probably slightly further left than previous run, establishing a trend... Crosses 20 N at about 45 W in 84 h... NW/NNW course after...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

...UKMET... further left than previous run, establishing a trend... across 20 N at 47.5 or so in 108 h... NW/NNWS course follows...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[clfenwi]

First GFDL run specifically for 95L brings it across 20° N at 42.7 West in 108h on a NNW course.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05080405

[Hurricaneman]

What do you think is going to happen with 95L

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I say it is already at tropical depression or weak tropical storm. I think this will wrap up fast. I say this thing will become a Major.

[clfenwi]

What do you think is going to happen with 95L

This is kind of low confidence since we have only been looking at the low for 12 hours or so... would like a bit more time to establish a bit of a track record to check the models against (to see what the true course of the storm is).

With that caveat, I think that it will easily clear the Carribean islands and has a low probability of affecting the mainland U.S. (based on the models and the climatology I linked earlier). The only plausible scenario that I can imagine is a situation where the storm gets blocked by a ridge on the recovery and gets pushed into the Carolinas or otherwise makes a close run of the coast.

Intensity is somewhat dependent on course as SSTs-TCHP are less favorable the more the storm wanders north compared to how they would be along a westerly course. Near term prospects for development seem to be outstanding. Development into a TS later today would be unsurprising.

DISCLAIMER: Not an official forecast. Reasoning may or may not be sound, etc. Refer to National Hurricane Center for official forecast products.

[clfenwi]

205 AM TWD ...

A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED TO THE E OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
12N29W DRIFTING NW. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
LOW. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ID TO THE NW OF THE LOW FROM
11.5N-14.5N BETWEEN 29W-33W AND TO THE NW OF THE LOW WITHIN 45
NM RADIUS OF 14N27.5W.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow the tropical waves leaving the low????


Any how this is going to be a monster very soon.