95L Invest Thread

#121 Postby **Andrew92** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 8:29 pm

feederband wrote:
Brent wrote:The models have it as Irene tomorrow evening... seems very possible given the current trends.

This is gonna be a lllllllllllooooooooonnnnnnnnnggggggggggggg two months.

We just had a long 2 months.......

Well, these next 2 are gonna be even longer I'm afraid. Hopefully I'm wrong though.

-Andrew92

johngaltfla · #122 Postby **johngaltfla** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 8:32 pm

TheShrimper wrote:What wager regarding Charley are you eluding to?

For 36 hours, the "experts" swore that Charley was going to hit the Tampa area or north.

You can not, nor should not bet that any storm will follow any climatogical pattern at this time.

This year, you have to think "outside the box" because we are possibly entering a phase of uncharted and undocumented history.

For proof, I re-iterate this quote from Dr. Gray's forecast today:

"This is the highest seasonal forecasts of hurricane activity we have ever made."

BensonTCwatcher · #123 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 8:33 pm

Don't have any idea what the climo looked like back then but didn't Frederic linger along as TD then rip every island in teh Carribean? It can happen. I am not gassing up the generator or anything, but you can pass me a cup of that mud...

EDIT yep Frederic was at 13.5 N and 35W

clfenwi · #124 Postby **clfenwi** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 8:35 pm

dwg71 · #125 Postby **dwg71** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 8:37 pm

climo screams fish, lets see if it holds...

#126 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 8:38 pm

^CL, of those storms, only one hit the US I think.

#127 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 8:39 pm

remember what the NHC said about climo :wink:

#128 Postby **deltadog03** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 8:40 pm

I still have a sneaky feeling that the trof will move out too quickly to allow this to move north...time will tell though

#129 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 8:43 pm

GFS 03/18 Run

BensonTCwatcher · #130 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 8:45 pm

clfenwi wrote:Recent storms that came withing 50 nm of the point given for initialization of the 00Z models:

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... /track.gif

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... /track.gif

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... /track.gif

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... /track.gif

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... /track.gif

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... /track.gif

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... /track.gif

OK but I can see no correlation between those listed and this year. True they were recent, but 50 NM is not much cyclone-wise . Isabel, Frederic, Hugo, David, heck there are a bunch that had a serious impact that formed out there. Academic I suppose, what the heck does a ridge know about history anyway? :wink:

Website · #131 Postby **Brent** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 8:46 pm

feederband wrote:
Brent wrote:The models have it as Irene tomorrow evening... seems very possible given the current trends.

This is gonna be a lllllllllllooooooooonnnnnnnnnggggggggggggg two months.

We just had a long 2 months.......

Naw... that was just a warmup. We'll be wishing we only had June/July again here in a few weeks.

Think about it... we never had more than 2 storms at once. I suspect we'll have 4-5 going sometime around Labor Day... give or take a week.

#132 Postby **Andrew92** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 8:47 pm

Brent wrote:
feederband wrote:
Brent wrote:The models have it as Irene tomorrow evening... seems very possible given the current trends.

This is gonna be a lllllllllllooooooooonnnnnnnnnggggggggggggg two months.

We just had a long 2 months.......

Naw... that was just a warmup. We'll be wishing we only had June/July again here in a few weeks.

Think about it... we never had more than 2 storms at once. I suspect we'll have 4-5 going sometime around Labor Day... give or take a week.

Well, Franklin and Gert occurred at the same time.

-Andrew92

Steve H. · #133 Postby **Steve H.** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 8:55 pm

Delta Dog is correct. Harvey and the trailing trough will be long gone by the time 95L gets near that longitude, and we should get ridge handover on this one, with the ridge building in the central and western Atlantic, while a somewhat retreating ridge in the eastern north atlantic. This could follow a path similar to Isabel, but its way early. I wouldn't bet on a fish just yet.

#134 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 8:59 pm

ambiguity

#135 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 9:00 pm

try this one

#136 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 9:00 pm

i'll just post the link

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

#137 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 9:01 pm

far to early to know if it will be a fish...as time goes by the picture will get clearer, however i want to know now!! :grrr:

lol

Website · #138 Postby **Brent** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 9:01 pm

Andrew92 wrote:Well, Franklin and Gert occurred at the same time.

I said 2 at a time... that would be 2. :lol:

#139 Postby **deltadog03** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 9:04 pm

Steve H. wrote:Delta Dog is correct. Harvey and the trailing trough will be long gone by the time 95L gets near that longitude, and we should get ridge handover on this one, with the ridge building in the central and western Atlantic, while a somewhat retreating ridge in the eastern north atlantic. This could follow a path similar to Isabel, but its way early. I wouldn't bet on a fish just yet.

Thanks Steve, I appreciate it...I think the models are either pushing the system too quickly or holding the trof too far east...It looks like the trof is really hightelling it out to the west and the ridge is building...like i said time will tell!!!

#140 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Aug 03, 2005 9:07 pm

Folks, one thing for sure, we have plenty-o time to see what 95L will do. I'm amazed at all the conjecture of whether a fish or not, right now your guess means absolutely nothing to the weather patterns that will unfold to determine what exactly 95L ends up doing. Be patient, lets give the models a couple of days to see what consistancy develops and even after that it might take the G-IV Jet sampling the atmosphere out around 95L way down the road to actually have the models get a grip on what will take place. We saw the models continually forecast fish turns for Francis and Jeanne last year and we know they were underestimating the strength of the ridge just east of Florida, it is entirely possible that they will do it again, then again they may be right by forecasting 95L a fish, TIME WILL TELL.

Patience is a virtue and lowers blood pressure!

95L Invest Thread

GFS

here is

sorry

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