95L Invest Thread

[SouthFloridawx]

Ridge to the north does not strengthen it looks like this could be a fish and some models have indicated that. GFS T=144 Hour but, it does not have it sharply moving to the nw. We will have to see what the ridge to the north does.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

[deltadog03]

actually they slow down if the ridge is strong....and yes, that ridge is staying put....should continue to move W or WNW...I think GFS is using its northerly biased card again...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Ridge looks pretty weak at 144 hr by the model, but ya never know...

[Andrew92]

But I think we're due for a fish "I" storm.....I hope this one hits absolutely nothing or anyone, yet still develops, just to kill the trend.

-Andrew92

[cycloneye]

It appears that behind the 95L circulation there is another one behind where all those black and violet barbs are located.

[deltadog03]

but, you have to understand the GFS bias'.....that model likes to eat ridges and over strengthen weakness...look at the upper level steering flow....its been the same the past 5-7 days...

[Coredesat]

here is the ukmet model run earlier today. The other models seem to move this thing due west or just north of west.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_50.gif

This was a while ago but, it was today and it's the only thing i can find.

That's the test run. Model runs haven't been posted for 95 yet.

[TS Zack]

It may miss the trough. It looks like the trough is already East of the system. I think it will get drawn Poleward then turn back West.

[SouthFloridawx]

it is a test run thanks for your input.

[LAwxrgal]

I think Cape Verde season is officially here.

[Anonymous]

It may miss the trough. It looks like the trough is already East of the system. I think it will get drawn Poleward then turn back West.

Agree...Virgin Islands, look out IMO. But, long way out.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Two areas of disturbed weather, one an invest...
Looks like our Lull is Long Gone Folks!!!!

[P.K.]

here is the ukmet model run earlier today.

This was a while ago but, it was today and it's the only thing i can find.

Here is exactly what it was saying:


TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 12.5N 27.8W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 03.08.2005 12.5N 27.8W WEAK

00UTC 04.08.2005 13.6N 28.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 04.08.2005 14.6N 31.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 05.08.2005 15.3N 34.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 05.08.2005 16.2N 37.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.08.2005 17.0N 39.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 06.08.2005 17.8N 40.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.08.2005 18.7N 41.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 07.08.2005 19.6N 43.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.08.2005 20.5N 45.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 08.08.2005 21.3N 47.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 09.08.2005 22.0N 48.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 09.08.2005 22.9N 50.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Very strong convection

[clfenwi]

Given the slow movement of both systems, development could take place quickly. How are the ssts around 95L?

I hadn't looked at this analysis

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/natl_sst_oper0.gif

until just now. It looks like there is a pool of warmer water in the immediate vicinity of 95L. Other analyses I had seen didn't show that pool, leading me to think that things wouldnt' start getting really interesting until after 40°-45° West. Didnt' realized that it would be in those kinds of temperatures right now.

[SouthFloridawx]

Those positions like that?

[cycloneye]

SAL imagery

[gkrangers]

COMPLEX E-CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 32W/33W SOUTH OF
19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE LOW CLOUD CURVATURE SUGGESTS THAT
THE WAVE HAS LEFT A 1008 MB LOW CENTER BEHIND THE WAVE NEAR
11N29W. TSTMS HAVE MARKEDLY INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY UNDER A
RATHER DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. MOST COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST A WNW TRACK OF THE LOW WITH RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE WAVE TRACKS WESTWARD AT
A SPEED SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE LOW. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
PICTURES SUGGESTED THAT BANDING FEATURES WERE TRYING TO FORM
CLOSE TO THE LOW THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN TONIGHT... WHILE
QUITE ACTIVE... DOESN'T APPEAR TOO ORGANIZED. HOWEVER QUIKSCAT
RECENTLY SHOWED A CLOSED LOW WITH UNCONTAMINATED 25 KT WINDS...
SIGNS OF A STRONG SYSTEM DESPITE THE DISHEVELED CLOUD PATTERN.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8.5N-13N BETWEEN
27W-33W.

[Javlin]

I thought that when lows moved through the vacant spot is filled by high pressure rather quickly.If that is the case would not the ULL to the WNW on it's current path create something of this manner?A ridge building to the N.

[deltadog03]

well the ridge is there...def...