OK so now the convection is in the GOM.

[Brent]

It looks as though GFS developes a weak low pressure in the N. GOM and moves it inland over the western Fl. Panhandle next Tues - Wed. and on the 19th it has a substantial system north of Hispaniola, in the Southern Bahamas and it appears to be heading in the direction of the east coast of FL ala Frances & Jean...I realize that this must be taken with a "grain of salt" this far out, but it still provides a little bit of insight as to what we can expect in the very near future...

How about a shaker of salt?

[N2Storms]

N2Storms wrote:
It looks as though GFS developes a weak low pressure in the N. GOM and moves it inland over the western Fl. Panhandle next Tues - Wed. and on the 19th it has a substantial system north of Hispaniola, in the Southern Bahamas and it appears to be heading in the direction of the east coast of FL ala Frances & Jean...I realize that this must be taken with a "grain of salt" this far out, but it still provides a little bit of insight as to what we can expect in the very near future...


Brent wrote:
How about a shaker of salt?


Yes definitely, strictly only looking at them for entertainment purposes that far out, but they're still fun to look at ...

[alicia-w]

duh, i thought we were talking about margaritas... hurricane party!!!

[Nimbus]

The last few days a majority of the convection from this
old trough was over land. Today we have building convection off the LA. coast. in the GOM. Should this be a concern?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

The trough has been slowly sinking south as you noticed but it is still half over land.
Winds are from the east on the north side of the trough and from the west on the south side.
Storms that form at the tail end of fronts can take days to develop.
The pressures at the buoys should YO-YO quite a bit lower than they have been.
There was a 1013 MB swing earlier this morning off Alabama.
When it gets down to 1011 MB let us know.

[CentralFlGal]

Nibblin’ on sponge cake
Watchin’ the sun bake
All of those tourists covered with oil
Strummin’ my six-string
On my front porch swing
Smell those shrimp they’re beginnin’ to boil

Wastin’ away again in margaritaville
Searching for my lost shaker of salt

Okay, I just realized we need a parody of this song here in Florida due to the events of last season and this year's as well. (An idea for a contest in the next S2K newsletter perhaps? )

[Frank P]

Looks like from this sat loop presentation that the center of the weak low is near the coast at the MS/AL line....

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... 16vis.html

last few loops almost hints of some banding in the southern half...

just pointing out some close-in home brewed weather features this afternoon...

[Steve]

>>Hey Dude, thanks for setting me straight on this...I apologize if I mislead anyone into thinking that I actually put stock in this but I apparently misled you...BTW, I'm probably old enough to be your father or grandfather, I doubt that you'd refer to me as "dude" if we were talking in person...

I would but that's just me dude.

Steve

[N2Storms]

>>Hey Dude, thanks for setting me straight on this...I apologize if I mislead anyone into thinking that I actually put stock in this but I apparently misled you...BTW, I'm probably old enough to be your father or grandfather, I doubt that you'd refer to me as "dude" if we were talking in person...

I would but that's just me dude.

Steve



From you I would expect nothing less...

[Stormcenter]

This is an excerpt from this (8-3-05) afternoon's NWS Mobile,AL
discussion

Marine...a weak surface trough and associated broad low level
circulation continues to be observed over coastal Alabama...the
Florida Panhandle and the adjacent coastal waters. GFS/NAM models
continue to basically wobble this weak area of low pressure around
the Alabama/northwest Florida Gulf coastal areas through the
upcoming weekend...with the GFS actually deepening it a bit. Took a
blend of NAM/GFS wind fields and tweaked them a bit to fit
observational trends for the first 24 hours or so...then leaned
towards GFS in later periods. Winds basically variable...with
offshore component overnight and onshore component during the
daytime hours. With little change in weather pattern through forecast
period...expect winds to remain below 10 knots. Seas will remain 1
to 2 feet through the period as well. 12/Shepherd
.

[N2Storms]

The Tallahassee NWS AFD said about the same thing, they mentioned the fact that they doubt the low will deepen as much as GFS is indicating but they do put a little bit of credence into it's solution...