Another check on the thoughts of the season

[wxwatcher91]

right now Harvey is looking pretty likely in the near future
here's the standings right now (supposing Harvey has already formed) with 2005 and 1933:

2005: August 3rd: 8/2/2
1933: August 3rd: 5/2/0; 8 named storms: August 17

at the end of September 1933, 17 named storms had formed..
2005: ???

[Frank2]

I wouldn't usually hazard a guess, however, I think that NOAA's forecast (made public just yesterday) is a bit overdone (since I worked for NOAA, I say this with respect for them).

Based on what has been happening in the tropics over the past several weeks, I'll make a guess to say that I think their totals for the remainder of the season could be cut by at least one-third.

Frank

[Rashid]

I'm with you Frank - I can't believe that we'll see 21 storms, maybe 16 or 17 but not 20+.

[wxwatcher91]

First of all, we have Harvey now

now back to topic:

I havent decided yet but here's another little full-around with stats:

7 NSs by the end of July and then considering in 2004 we had 11 in August and September that is 18 for this year if it follows the same trend

[Frank2]

Rashid, I agree with you - even last season, as busy as it was for 6 weeks, did not approach these high numbers.

The pattern over the past several weeks has included a weak subtropical ridge, strong SAL outbreaks, and a negative MJO, and even increased shear at latitudes below 30N, so, I really have to disagree with their totals.

By the way, the attached is a track chart of last season, which really points out how much worse it could have been, if it had not been for a trough that helped to recurve several systems in the eastern Atlantic:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

Frank

[beachbum_al]

I have to go with 20.

[wxwatcher91]

bump

[EDR1222]

I'm with you Frank - I can't believe that we'll see 21 storms, maybe 16 or 17 but not 20+.

This has been my thinking too. Interestingly, as soon as the SAL started to lift out we saw much more action along the ITCZ and sure enough, as of the 11:30 a.m update Aug 3, they are saying the wave out there may slowly develop, so the tropics don't appear to be wasting any time getting going again. I still say under 20 though.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'll go will 17; even though that was my whole season prediction in early June


Looking like an historic season more and more everyday


Hybridstorm_November

[wxmann_91]

17, gut feeling.

[wxwatcher91]

bump= anyone else?

[WeatherEmperor]

That number "20" is looking awfully more and more possible.

<RICKY>

[cinlfla]

I voted 17, As much as I love to track these storms, I don't even want to think about 20.

[Normandy]

20 easily...especially if the NHC names the every Gert that comes about.