OK so now the convection is in the GOM.

[Stormcenter]

The last few days a majority of the convection from this
old trough was over land. Today we have building convection off the LA. coast. in the GOM. Should this be a concern?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Rashid]

considering the current organization, this area will take a few days to consolidate and develop. I wouldn't be worried about anything other than rain right now.

[Stormcenter]

This excerpt is from the Mobile, AL NWS 8-3-05 am discussion.

Long term...for Thursday and Friday will continue to lean towards
persistence resulting in likely to categorical probability of precipitation for most of the
County warning forecast area. Weak shear axis aloft combined with deep tropical moisture and
a developing broad area of low pressure near the surface over the
adjacent Gulf waters will continue to set the stage for widespread showers and thunderstorms over much of the County warning forecast area especially during
the late morning and afternoon hours. Over the weekend both the GFS
and NAM depict weak area of low pressure near the surface to drift slowly
west allowing deep moisture to continue to advect inland across much
of the region. Current forecasts continue to show weak forcing aloft
also possibly setting the stage for more widespread showers and
thunderstorms through Sunday. By Monday broad area of low pressure
begins to lift out to the north possibly setting the stage for some
drying for the first part of next week. Will stay close to current
mav/mex MOS temperatures through the period.

[Dean4Storms]

It is becoming an area to keep a wary eye on with high pressure built in at upper levels and lowering shear, sst's in the mid to upper 80's and convection along an old frontal boundary. The only fly in the ointment is the proximity to land but have noted a slight rotation with the convection on radar off the panhandle coast this am. If the convection can consolidate and persists in one area at least 100 miles out it could slowly evolve into something, but it wouldn't be much.

[Dean4Storms]

From Mobile Discussion......

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WE WILL BE KEEPING POPS IN THE
HIGH RANGE TODAY GIVEN A CONTINUED PERSISTENT PATTERN. ALOFT WE
CONTINUE TO SEE A BROAD WEAKNESS/TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WE CAN SEE A WEAK/BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE NEXRAD IMAGERY CENTERED ABOUT 40 MILES
SOUTH OF FORT MORGAN. THIS WEAK SURFACE LOW HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT
PLAYER IN OUR WET WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

[Dean4Storms]

Radar from NW Florida showing the weak circulation just offshore.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kevx.shtml

[PTrackerLA]

I wouldn't be too concerned about it as it's just a trough of low pressure along the gulf coast. If we were to see a big blowup of convection that was consolidated offshore then I'd be more concerned.

[Stormcenter]

I wouldn't be too concerned about it as it's just a trough of low pressure along the gulf coast. If we were to see a big blowup of convection that was consolidated offshore then I'd be more concerned.

The NWS discussions this morning out of Mobile and N.O. do mention the possibility of a surface low forming somewhere in the region.

[Frank P]

Interesting little twist of the low from viewing the radar loop... appears to be heading off to the SE at the moment...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/mob_N0Z_lp.html

[pcolaguy]

Yeah, all the rain for it is offshore and moving ESE.

[EDR1222]

There is something there, by looking at the Radar.

[HouTXmetro]

Didn't we go through this last week with this same system?

[Stormcenter]

Actually it was late last week.


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

[jasons2k]

Didn't we go through this last week with this same system?

Yes we did. It's the bob that won't go away...

[Thunder44]

There are often little low pressure areas and convective clusters in the GOM. Many of them don't even come close to developing TC's.

[alicia-w]

but some of them do.

[N2Storms]

It looks as though GFS developes a weak low pressure in the N. GOM and moves it inland over the western Fl. Panhandle next Tues - Wed. and on the 19th it has a substantial system north of Hispaniola, in the Southern Bahamas and it appears to be heading in the direction of the east coast of FL ala Frances & Jean...I realize that this must be taken with a "grain of salt" this far out, but it still provides a little bit of insight as to what we can expect in the very near future...

[shaggy]

It looks as though GFS developes a weak low pressure in the N. GOM and moves it inland over the western Fl. Panhandle next Tues - Wed. and on the 19th it has a substantial system north of Hispaniola, in the Southern Bahamas and it appears to be heading in the direction of the east coast of FL ala Frances & Jean...I realize that this must be taken with a "grain of salt" this far out, but it still provides a little bit of insight as to what we can expect in the very near future...

dude the 19th isn't even close to the very near future.Thats 2 weeks away so impossible to tell what might happen with the tropics that far away in that amount of time one could form right off shore and bust somebody up so take it with a HUGE grain of salt

[TS Zack]

As I was making my forecast for the next couple of day I came across both the GFS & NAM forming a low. The NAM shows more of a tropical feature with the comma shaped precipiation, but the GFS forms is mainly inland.

Definitely an area to watch. Very Light Shear and Very Warm Waters!

[N2Storms]

dude the 19th isn't even close to the very near future.Thats 2 weeks away so impossible to tell what might happen with the tropics that far away in that amount of time one could form right off shore and bust somebody up so take it with a HUGE grain of salt



Hey Dude, thanks for setting me straight on this...I apologize if I mislead anyone into thinking that I actually put stock in this but I apparently misled you...BTW, I'm probably old enough to be your father or grandfather, I doubt that you'd refer to me as "dude" if we were talking in person...