Question (Hurricane history, etc.)-Biggest 'dud' storm ever?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Hurricane Luis in 1995 was a major dud (except for the Islands of course). It was first hyped (mind you a week out) to maybe hit Florida, then the SE, and finally NE, and of course it was a monster, but it veered out to sea smashing only south New Foundland Island (still as a cat. 0ne 'til it was off southern Greenland mind you). At one point (when it was slicing through the Virgin Islands) early in it's life many TV weather men, and News casters, dubbed it "Andrew and Hugo's big brother", and seemed to salivate over the damaged caused when it would hit the SE, or East Coast, the following week


Hybridstorm_November2001

[jimvb]

I remember in 1985 that the local media mets were saying things like "We're watching Gloria for you." and on the hour between programs showing radar maps from the Outer Banks. Hype, hype, hype. This is probably when the Age of Hype began.

[Jim Cantore]

IF you think about it the Labor Day storm of 1935 was a BIG dud

It blasted the keys with 200mph winds but went on to hit north of Cedar Key at 85mph

Rapid weakening to follow it's rapid strengthing

[Normandy]

IF you think about it the Labor Day storm of 1935 was a BIG dud

It blasted the keys with 200mph winds but went on to hit north of Cedar Key at 85mph

Rapid weakening to follow it's rapid strengthing

Dude no landfalling 200 mph hurricane is a dud.

[Derek Ortt]

Isidore also was a media myth

No NHC forecast had Isidore making landfall above cat 3, most at the very low end of cat 3. I've went through the 5 days that weren't released to the public at the time and saw that the landfall forecasts consistently were between 100-110KT

[jabber]

Hurricane Debby in 2000 was all but going to wipe out S Fla., but fell apart almost overnight.

\

I would vote for this one... we all thought it was going to be the big one..... Floyd was scary but the NHC stuck with the curve and they were right.

[Buck]

ill vote for opal.

Opal was one of the most memerable storms of it's generation.

[Jim Cantore]

Dude no landfalling 200 mph hurricane is a dud.

A dud to northwest Florida

[Ixolib]

Seems I remember a storm in the early-mid 80's coming straight up the Gulf toward the Mouth of the MS on an almost due north track. It was forecast to track across Breton Sound, and finally make landfall somewhere on the MS coast just east of the border with LA. Anyway, everybody was "hunkered" down and all, plywood was up, and then suddenly it seems, it just petered out into nothing more than a good summer-time Tstm. Anybody remember the name or the event?

[Derek Ortt]

sounds like Florence, 1988

[smashmode]

Well Hurricane Lili was going to destroy NOLA with cat 5 winds..but we know how that turned out.

[gilbert88]

Dude no landfalling 200 mph hurricane is a dud.

A dud to northwest Florida

Just like Gilbert was a dud to New England, right?

[Derek Ortt]

the keys cane weakened so much when it hit cedar key because it rode the entire WC of Florida. Caused decent damage to Tampa

[The Big Dog]

I remember in 1985 that the local media mets were saying things like "We're watching Gloria for you." and on the hour between programs showing radar maps from the Outer Banks. Hype, hype, hype. This is probably when the Age of Hype began.

Hunter S. Thompson had a good piece about the Gloria coverage in Fear and Loathing '88. The line that stuck with me goes something like, "Everyone from Palm Beach to Boston is staring down the barrel of a loaded gun."

[Ixolib]

sounds like Florence, 1988

Wow Derek - You must be a walking, talking, head full of instant recall!! I believe you are right. She hung a quick left and downgraded very quickly. How do you do that?? Ever thought about counting cards in Vegas?

[pcolaguy]

Easy decision, Dennis of course. We got power back THE NEXT DAY. Compared to Ivan, where it took 2 weeks. And don't even say "well Navarre got it alot worse", people in Navarre got power back within the week. Some people didn't get power back for over 2 months after Ivan. Also, the winds were way overstated for Dennis. MAYBE there was a gust or 2 to major hurricane force, certainly no sustained winds. Sure maybe it impacted some people on the beach, but it didn't impact as widespread an area as Ivan, after it was forecasted to be WORSE than Ivan. CNN the day before and of, calling for a Cat 4, only to have it weaken to a Cat 2... biggest dud ever.

[wxmann_91]

Easy decision, Dennis of course. We got power back THE NEXT DAY. Compared to Ivan, where it took 2 weeks. And don't even say "well Navarre got it alot worse", people in Navarre got power back within the week. Some people didn't get power back for over 2 months after Ivan. Also, the winds were way overstated for Dennis. MAYBE there was a gust or 2 to major hurricane force, certainly no sustained winds. Sure maybe it impacted some people on the beach, but it didn't impact as widespread an area as Ivan, after it was forecasted to be WORSE than Ivan. CNN the day before and of, calling for a Cat 4, only to have it weaken to a Cat 2... biggest dud ever.

Don't tell that to people who lost their homes...IMO any hurricane that destroys someone's property and/or life isn't a dud even if it weakens from Cat 5 to Cat 1.

But hey, don't take my word for it. Look at the damage survey from NWS Mobile!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/0705Dennis/survey_images.shtml

[SouthernWx]

IF you think about it the Labor Day storm of 1935 was a BIG dud

It blasted the keys with 200mph winds but went on to hit north of Cedar Key at 85mph

Rapid weakening to follow it's rapid strengthing

In all honesty....it's my opinion the Labor Day hurricane was much stronger at second landfall near Cross City, Florida than it's given credit for.

In September 1935, there were no weather stations anywhere near the impact zone of the Labor Day hurricane along the Florida west coast. In fact, that region of Florida (Cross City to Cedar Key) is still a very sparsely populated area....in 1935, it was mostly uninhabited.

In researching all available weather data....its likely IMO the Labor Day hurricane was at least of cat-3 intensity. Even though of extremely small diameter, Cedar Key observers reported the highest tides at that location since the 1896 hurricane (a 110 kt cat-3)...and the 1935 hurricane passed 30-40 miles west of Cedar Key...so it likely wasn't inside the core region.

In addition, I've seen reports of severe wind damage...trees down, homes damaged in southern Georgia near and just right of the hurricane path inland. Even well inland over the Carolinas, there were still tropical storm conditions. Once the Labor Day hurricane reached the Atlantic waters offshore North Carolina and Virginia, it quickly regained hurricane intensity, and apparently became quite intense....with ship reports of central pressure in the 940-950 mb range as it crossed the shipping lanes.

This type of information tells me the Labor Day hurricane didn't just likely fall apart as it passed parallel and just offshore the Florida west coast. At Boca Grande, winds were estimated well in excess of 100 mph by lighthouse observers. In downtown Tampa, sustained winds reached 86 mph with gusts to 100; 15-20 miles to the west (and in the eyewall) IMO it's likely Pinellas county beaches experienced major hurricane conditions (111+ mph sustained winds).

The Labor Day hurricane is another example of a small but extremely intense hurricane which was "underestimated" in intensity due to it striking unpopulated coastal areas. Even today, Unisys lists the peak intensity of this mini-monster at "only" 140 kts (160 mph) as it crossed the middle Florida Keys; an insult to those hundreds that perished. It's more likely the Labor Day hurricane possessed sustained winds near 200 mph....with gusts of 230-250 mph...wind speeds of F4 tornado intensity. That explains the incredible damage and phenomena rescuers and storm surveyers discovered after the hurricane's passage.

PW

[SouthernWx]

Easy decision, Dennis of course. We got power back THE NEXT DAY. Compared to Ivan, where it took 2 weeks. And don't even say "well Navarre got it alot worse", people in Navarre got power back within the week. Some people didn't get power back for over 2 months after Ivan. Also, the winds were way overstated for Dennis. MAYBE there was a gust or 2 to major hurricane force, certainly no sustained winds. Sure maybe it impacted some people on the beach, but it didn't impact as widespread an area as Ivan, after it was forecasted to be WORSE than Ivan. CNN the day before and of, calling for a Cat 4, only to have it weaken to a Cat 2... biggest dud ever.

Both the Nexrad velocity data and NOAA SFMR data indicated sustained surface winds near 105 kt (120 mph) over a small area as Dennis made landfall.....an area only 5 to 7 miles wide located west of Navarre and east of Gulf Breeze. There's no doubt in my mind...nor the minds of NHC forecasters that hurricane Dennis was a major hurricane as it crossed the coast. Fortunately the beachfront and coastal area which experienced major hurricane conditions was exceedingly small...and mostly unhabitated.

You can refer to Dennis as a dud if you wish....but it will go down on record as the most intense landfalling hurricane to ever impact the U.S. during the month of July (105 kt/ 946 mb).

PW

[cajungal]

Isidore. They were not expecting Isidore to go over the Yucatan. When it went over the Yucatan, it tore it up. And was only a TS. For days they expected it to hit southeast Louisiana as a major hurricane. We boarded our home. And Wal-mart was nuts. Everything on the shelves were cleared out. The center of Isidore went right over my house. We just got some heavy rain and gusty winds. We did loose power for a few hours. And the Levee did break below Houma in Montegut. And Montegut was under a lot of water. But, it was not as nearly as bad as it could of been.