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clfenwi
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#101 Postby clfenwi » Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:38 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml

<i>More infomation on the Herbert-Poteat technique is found in NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS SR-83</i> (From the above site)


Thanks... I had tried a few combinations of different terms with 'HP method' but had come up dry.
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#102 Postby clfenwi » Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:46 pm

WHXX01 KWBC 021840
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (AL082005) ON 20050802 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050802 1800 050803 0600 050803 1800 050804 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.2N 68.8W 30.0N 68.2W 32.0N 66.7W 33.6N 64.1W
BAMM 28.2N 68.8W 29.7N 68.4W 31.2N 67.0W 32.1N 64.9W
A98E 28.2N 68.8W 30.1N 68.1W 31.8N 66.5W 33.4N 64.0W
LBAR 28.2N 68.8W 29.6N 67.8W 31.1N 66.6W 32.6N 64.8W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 48KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050804 1800 050805 1800 050806 1800 050807 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 35.2N 60.0W 41.0N 45.2W 50.1N 31.0W 54.7N 11.9W
BAMM 32.6N 62.3W 32.7N 56.6W 32.2N 55.3W 31.8N 54.9W
A98E 34.7N 60.4W 36.8N 52.7W 37.1N 46.6W 39.0N 44.4W
LBAR 34.4N 62.2W 39.4N 53.1W 43.9N 38.6W .0N .0W
SHIP 52KTS 53KTS 50KTS 44KTS
DSHP 52KTS 53KTS 50KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.2N LONCUR = 68.8W DIRCUR = 10DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 25.5N LONM12 = 69.4W DIRM12 = 8DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 23.4N LONM24 = 69.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#103 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:48 pm

Ok now that we have TD#8 I will lock this one.
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#104 Postby MWatkins » Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:49 pm

clfenwi wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:I'd much rather see this classified using the HP method, instead of the Dvorak method. Dvorak is not meant for these subtropical-type systems. HP is


Derek, do you know of a write-up of that method online? Or otherwise, a book that mentions it? Am mildly curious.

Meant to ask the first time I saw you mention it.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Obviously bored out of mind due to my two weeks of 'active' duty


Of course I'm not going to get into a debate on it's tropical characteristics in general...because this system clearly is getting some help from the ULL and is not even close to purely tropical...but I am OK with using Dvorak on the pattern...for now...even though I think both could be applied. HP could be used, sure, but the agencies responsible for making this determination aren't doing so.

The folks over at TAFB and SAB have been tagging this system with Dvorak classifications for some time now. While it may have some cold-core characteristics, they are probably thinking there is enough deep convection near the center, and banding features, to use the Dvorak method...perhaps using shear-pattern analysis...

MW
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