We are in serious trouble if these reports pan out by the

[storms in NC]

I think everyone needs to keep one eye open this year. I do believe that NC will have there share this year. We are due Here. Our last one here where I live was Floyd. Lost my home to that one.

[jasons2k]

NOAA. Also, if Dr. Gray ups his report, then I think the worst of this season is upon us. I don't mean to sound dark, but I have a bad feeling about this and the report. I mean you could draw whatever conclusion you want or you can lessen the effects of the report, but the report is what it is, and that is what freightens me the most. I told my wife that if we get hit by mor canes here in Florida, my happy arse is outta here and moving back to Cali... THOUGHTS WELCOME...

I dunno that I'd move though. Cali = earthquakes, which are sudden and unpredictable. Some day CA will get theirs too...

Tampa = sitting duck IMO. I lived the 1st 10 years of my life there and I remember Roy Leep often talking about a 1921 or Donna setup (further west) would inundate downtown Tampa and downtown St. Pete and virtually all of both peninsulas. Well over a million people would be impacted by flooding alone, not to mention all the commerical development, plus MacDill, plus TIA. It's a worse setup than Miami IMO.

Also most of the glass in Houston was not a direct wind result; it was caused by rooftop gravel being picked-up which *supposedly* has since been fixed. But still, look at what happened to downtown Fort Forth in 2000 from an F2-F3 tornado...

[jdray]

Do you think the NE coast will still be safe this year? It has been a very long time since we had a direct hit. Debbie

Not enough history to acurrately say. There was some research though that shows that this area is hit a helluva lot more than people think.


No area is really "overdue" as mother nature doesn't keep tabs like this.

[wxmann_91]

Tampa is not the only sitting duck. According to one of those TWC specials, there are 5 places in the US that if a major hurricane hit, the damage could be double, if not triple, the damage caused by hurricane Andrew.

Tampa/St. Pete area
New Orleans
New York City
Miami
Houston/Galveston area

We were extremely luck with Andrew and in the 2004 hurricane season that these areas weren't hit. In fact, we've been extremely lucky. One day one of these cities will be wiped out. We won't be lucky forever.

And these areas aren't any more prone to wind; the catastrophe would be from the surge.

California is the same too with earthquakes, and we are overdue for one as well. Any moment Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, or even (yes) Seattle and Portland could be wiped out by an 8.0 or greater quake.

[sweetpea]

Tampa is not the only sitting duck. According to one of those TWC specials, there are 5 places in the US that if a major hurricane hit, the damage could be double, if not triple, the damage caused by hurricane Andrew.

Tampa/St. Pete area
New Orleans
New York City
Miami
Houston/Galveston area

We were extremely luck with Andrew and in the 2004 hurricane season that these areas weren't hit. In fact, we've been extremely lucky. One day one of these cities will be wiped out. We won't be lucky forever.

And these areas aren't any more prone to wind; the catastrophe would be from the surge.

California is the same too with earthquakes, and we are overdue for one as well. Any moment Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, or even (yes) Seattle and Portland could be wiped out by an 8.0 or greater quake.

Scary thought-At least with hurricanes we have enough warning to get out if we choose. People in California don't. Not sure if I could live there. Hubby's grandmorther moved here about 5 years ago from Cali, she said she would take hurricances any day. Even after last year. Debbie

[Derek Ortt]

had Charley have been alrger and came in at 130-135KT, Orlando may have been wiped out since Charley hit the center of the city. Instead of a cat 1, it may have still been a cat 3

[wxmann_91]

Tampa is not the only sitting duck. According to one of those TWC specials, there are 5 places in the US that if a major hurricane hit, the damage could be double, if not triple, the damage caused by hurricane Andrew.

Tampa/St. Pete area
New Orleans
New York City
Miami
Houston/Galveston area

We were extremely luck with Andrew and in the 2004 hurricane season that these areas weren't hit. In fact, we've been extremely lucky. One day one of these cities will be wiped out. We won't be lucky forever.

And these areas aren't any more prone to wind; the catastrophe would be from the surge.

California is the same too with earthquakes, and we are overdue for one as well. Any moment Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, or even (yes) Seattle and Portland could be wiped out by an 8.0 or greater quake.

Scary thought-At least with hurricanes we have enough warning to get out if we choose. People in California don't. Not sure if I could live there. Hubby's grandmorther moved here about 5 years ago from Cali, she said she would take hurricances any day. Even after last year. Debbie

Yeah, good point, but without the earthquakes in Cali there wouldn't be the spectacular scenery that we have here with the mountains and the ocean and the stunning cliffs in a few places. And the weather is almost never bad (boring for me, but some of you may want it), sunshine, not too hot, not too cold, and the white sandy beaches come without hurricanes. Hey, with the good comes the bad.

[baygirl_1]

My little humble opinion:
If NOAA's forecast is on target, then we'll be quite busy the next few months. But, we'll deal with it as we always do.
Weather is weather, wherever you live.
I have relatives in New England who call us to pity us when hurricanes hit, but they have blizzards every winter. I couldn't stand a blizzard. Shoot, I freeze when the temp goes below 50! I have friends from the Midwest who call to offer prayers when hurricanes threaten us, but they deal with snowstorms all winter and tornadoes during the summer. Again, wouldn't want that weather. Maybe it's because I was born and raised on the Gulf Coast, but I wouldn't want to live anywhere else. Yes, it's horrible when a 120+ mph nasty storm is bearing down on us and we're packing up, yet again, to head to the relatives' place upstate, but... it's home.

[RU4REAL]

baygirl,
No truer words have even been written, and your' right it is HOME.

[wxcrazytwo]

Tampa is not the only sitting duck. According to one of those TWC specials, there are 5 places in the US that if a major hurricane hit, the damage could be double, if not triple, the damage caused by hurricane Andrew.

Tampa/St. Pete area
New Orleans
New York City
Miami
Houston/Galveston area

We were extremely luck with Andrew and in the 2004 hurricane season that these areas weren't hit. In fact, we've been extremely lucky. One day one of these cities will be wiped out. We won't be lucky forever.

And these areas aren't any more prone to wind; the catastrophe would be from the surge.

California is the same too with earthquakes, and we are overdue for one as well. Any moment Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, or even (yes) Seattle and Portland could be wiped out by an 8.0 or greater quake.

Scary thought-At least with hurricanes we have enough warning to get out if we choose. People in California don't. Not sure if I could live there. Hubby's grandmorther moved here about 5 years ago from Cali, she said she would take hurricances any day. Even after last year. Debbie

I have been through my fair share of earthquakes, I have so many that my ceiling of my house was cracking, as well as the outside fascade. It comes with the territory yes.

[johngaltfla]

would be most concerned in MIA about a hit from the SOUTH

Honestly Derek, us coastal folks, East or West in Florida, should be more concerned about the coastal draggers. The ones where they eye remains 2-20 miles offshore and parallels the coast for hundreds of miles, pounding the coastlines and inland about 30-40 miles with hurricane force winds and rain for 18-20 hours. It's happened in our state's history and I dread it.

Imagine the implications of a Cat 3 or 4 moving due North along the West Coast of Florida at 5 knots from Fort Myers to the Big Bend.

Andrew might pale in comparison then.....

[EDR1222]

I agree, everyone has to pay attention. If we end up with those kind of numbers at the end of the season, there could be many different areas affected.

[johngaltfla]

hey you guys
don't forget a cane has to pass through us in the Caribbean before it ever gets to you!
We are under the gun first I think!
bottom line.. everyone watch very very carefully!

You won't get a cane because I'm willing it away. I want to go back where you live and spend a week there this time.

[johngaltfla]

Tampa is not the only sitting duck. According to one of those TWC specials, there are 5 places in the US that if a major hurricane hit, the damage could be double, if not triple, the damage caused by hurricane Andrew.

Tampa/St. Pete area
New Orleans
New York City
Miami
Houston/Galveston area

We were extremely luck with Andrew and in the 2004 hurricane season that these areas weren't hit. In fact, we've been extremely lucky. One day one of these cities will be wiped out. We won't be lucky forever.

And these areas aren't any more prone to wind; the catastrophe would be from the surge.

California is the same too with earthquakes, and we are overdue for one as well. Any moment Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, or even (yes) Seattle and Portland could be wiped out by an 8.0 or greater quake.

The big fear is a storm where the eye passes through Pinellas County (St. Pete) and drags the surge up from Longboat Key and Anna Maria Island (off Bradenton and actually at sea level for all intensive purposes) and brings a 15-20 ft surge on top of high tide. Tampa would experience water in the Southern Bay probably all the way to I-75 and in the city a good 10 plus miles inland.

Andrew would pale by comparison in deaths and dollar amounts.

[floridahurricaneguy]

Scary scary scary espically since I am moving there now! I am going to be 4.5 miles from the gulf at elevation of 2 feet. Its only a matter of time for Tampa I bet.

[jasons2k]

Tampa is not the only sitting duck. According to one of those TWC specials, there are 5 places in the US that if a major hurricane hit, the damage could be double, if not triple, the damage caused by hurricane Andrew.

Tampa/St. Pete area
New Orleans
New York City
Miami
Houston/Galveston area

We were extremely luck with Andrew and in the 2004 hurricane season that these areas weren't hit. In fact, we've been extremely lucky. One day one of these cities will be wiped out. We won't be lucky forever.

And these areas aren't any more prone to wind; the catastrophe would be from the surge.

California is the same too with earthquakes, and we are overdue for one as well. Any moment Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, or even (yes) Seattle and Portland could be wiped out by an 8.0 or greater quake.

The big fear is a storm where the eye passes through Pinellas County (St. Pete) and drags the surge up from Longboat Key and Anna Maria Island (off Bradenton and actually at sea level for all intensive purposes) and brings a 15-20 ft surge on top of high tide. Tampa would experience water in the Southern Bay probably all the way to I-75 and in the city a good 10 plus miles inland.

Andrew would pale by comparison in deaths and dollar amounts.

Yes, you are correct. And yes Tampa isn't the only sitting duck but the geography is unique setting up a huge storm surge. Altho NYC (as Derek pointed out) and the N.O. Fishbowl are bad spots too.

[Jim Cantore]

Mexico to new england?

that means me!

[wxwatcher91]

this is TOTALLY the year for New England! I can feel it

seriously though, the Gulf Stream has pulled SSTs up to 26-27 up to New Jersey and we havent even reached peak SSTs I dont believe... of course it really all depends on the track... If the Bermuda high would just give up for a bit... lol

[beachbum_al]

Where I live as been under the gun so many times and so many times we have spared. Even in Ivan Fairhope was spared from major damage. Same with Dennis. I am afraid that our luck might run out. But the way I see it is my house, my belongings, etc is material items. As long as I have my family and they are okay I will be okay.

[cajungal]

New Orleans got hit by Cindy this year. But, it has been a long time since it had anything major. Sept 9 will be the 40th anniversary of Betsy. I think New Orleans is even hosting a rememberance party in honor of her this year. Houma has also been dodging hurricane for quite awhile. Almost 13 years since Andrew roared through. It is almost a distant memory now. History shows that Louisiana tends to get hit in slower seasons for some reason. Look how busy 1933 was, yet, Louisiana did not get a scratch. And it got hit in slow seasons like Andrew and Betsy.