92L Invest

[Derek Ortt]

this system looks a lot mroe organized than Gert was when it was first declared to be a TD

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree Derek. It looks alot better then alot of systems that where declared a tropical depression.

[Derek Ortt]

latest T numbers range from 1.0/1.0 to 1.5/1.5

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

NOUS42 KNHC 021430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 02 AUGUST 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z AUG 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-066

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR BERMUDA)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 03/1800Z A. 04/0600Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST B. AFXXX 0208A CYCLONE
C. 03/1330Z C. 04/0045Z
D. 31.0N 67.0W D. 32.0N 65.0W
E. 03/1700Z TO 03/2130Z E. 04/0500Z TO 04/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FIX AT 04/1800Z
IF SYSTEM HAS NOT PASSED BERMUDA

[DESTRUCTION5]

East bound storms are boring to track...unless your in Europe...

[Derek Ortt]

ABNT20 KNHC 021514
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF BERMUDA...WITH A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT SINCE
YESTERDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[WindRunner]

YEA, something to track - take that back, don't want to jinx it

[WindRunner]

The danger area graphic reads "tropical or subtropical development . . ."
why subtropical?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/danger_atl_latestBW.gif

[Stormcenter]

Well at least we use up another name. Say hello to Harvey everyone.

[wxwatcher91]

no recon???

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The LLC is reforming at 27 north/68 west. It is really starting to get its act together. These kind of storms are the ones that go from 35 knot tropical storms. Intill recon finds 50 or 60 knot systems 12 hours later.

[cycloneye]

no recon???

Tommorow afternoon at 18:00z.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NOUS42 KNHC 021430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 02 AUGUST 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z AUG 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-066

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR BERMUDA)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 03/1800Z A. 04/0600Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST B. AFXXX 0208A CYCLONE
C. 03/1330Z C. 04/0045Z
D. 31.0N 67.0W D. 32.0N 65.0W
E. 03/1700Z TO 03/2130Z E. 04/0500Z TO 04/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FIX AT 04/1800Z
IF SYSTEM HAS NOT PASSED BERMUDA

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

02/1145 UTC 25.5N 69.6W T1.0/1.0 92


The center is to the northeast. But here is the t number.

[Sanibel]

This system has a ULL developing over it as it tries to get itself together. The whole SW 1/3rd is ULL disrupted.

The LLC looks to be relocating under the convection.

[clfenwi]

Last night's GFDL was the first in awhile to not dissipate a system. Didn't do terribly much with it, but it did sustain it:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

The morning forecast track is out:
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05080217

but it hasn't hit the tcgengifs yet.

[cycloneye]

02/1745 UTC 28.0N 69.3W T1.0/1.0 92 -- Atlantic Ocean

[Derek Ortt]

I'd much rather see this classified using the HP method, instead of the Dvorak method. Dvorak is not meant for these subtropical-type systems. HP is

[clfenwi]

I'd much rather see this classified using the HP method, instead of the Dvorak method. Dvorak is not meant for these subtropical-type systems. HP is

Derek, do you know of a write-up of that method online? Or otherwise, a book that mentions it? Am mildly curious.

Meant to ask the first time I saw you mention it.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Obviously bored out of mind due to my two weeks of 'active' duty

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml

<i>More infomation on the Herbert-Poteat technique is found in NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS SR-83</i> (From the above site)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Whats your current thinking Derek?