Question (Hurricane history, etc.)-Biggest 'dud' storm ever?

[Jim Cantore]

Lili was 145mph on the night of the 2nd of October 2002 supposed to be compareable to hugo

Made landfall the morning of the 3rd at 100mph maybe a billion dollars

[jrod]

Debby is the one that sticks out on my lifetime.

The biggest suprise storm for me was Irene in '99. It was suppose to move NE and leave CFL alone but it stayed close enough to give us near hurricane force winds for at least 6 hours. We didnt have any watches/warnings until after the winds got here and some of the local causeways were underwater.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Hurricane Felix in 1995 and Hurricane Edouard in 1996 were both huge duds for the Northeast.


Hybridstorm_November2001

[Andrew92]

Hurricane Felix in 1995 and Hurricane Edouard in 1996 were both huge duds for the Northeast.


Hybridstorm_November2001

I agree that Felix is another good example of a dud. I remember the media was all over that one....even though it was just barely a hurricane off the East Coast. And then it veered away without making landfall.....

-Andrew92

[Jim Cantore]

Felix got me looking at hurricanes vaugely after it ruined my beach day with rip currents off Ocean City NJ

Edouard I was also in Ocean City and I'll tell you the waves were HUGE 15-20 feet high

[EDR1222]

Debby is the one that sticks out on my lifetime.

The biggest suprise storm for me was Irene in '99. It was suppose to move NE and leave CFL alone but it stayed close enough to give us near hurricane force winds for at least 6 hours. We didnt have any watches/warnings until after the winds got here and some of the local causeways were underwater.

I remember what your talking about with the lack of warnings regarding Irene. It was a Saturday Morning and it caught people by surprise. It was suppose to stay on the western side of the state if I remember correctly but passed just offshore within 25 miles of the coastline here in Brevard County. I think there was some 70 mph gusts at Patrick Air Force Base.

[NCHurricane]

The biggest suprise storm for me was Irene in '99. It was suppose to move NE and leave CFL alone but it stayed close enough to give us near hurricane force winds for at least 6 hours. We didnt have any watches/warnings until after the winds got here and some of the local causeways were underwater.

Irene gave us a slight scare as well. We had a bad enough shot with Dennis 1 & 2 and Floyd. Even staying offshore, Irene gave us enough rain to temporarily level off (and in a few cases reverse) the dropping water levels of local rivers here in eastern NC. If she had come ashore, or even closer than she did, it would have already made a bad situtation much worse. So not neccesarily a dud, but it could've been worse.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Lili was a big dud!!!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Felix and Edouard (especially the later) could have been terrible storms for New England (both were large storms in terms of size). If they hadn't both kind of got stuck off the coast for about a week and then swerved out to see, after weakening quite a bit.


Hybridstorm_November2001

[BayouVenteux]

Lili was a big dud!!!

I guess if you define a "dud" as a storm that doesn't maintain the strength necessary to fulill your expectations of catastrophic damage at landfall, then Lili was definitely that. Thank God! Ask anybody in the area of Iberia, Vermilion, and Lafayette Parishes in SW Louisiana and they'll tell you that, while weakened from the frightening category 4 Lili was 24 hours prior to landfall, the storm still packed a decent enough punch to fell massive oak trees, down many power lines, and leave people without power for a up to a week or two.

[The Big Dog]

The biggest suprise storm for me was Irene in '99. It was suppose to move NE and leave CFL alone but it stayed close enough to give us near hurricane force winds for at least 6 hours. We didnt have any watches/warnings until after the winds got here and some of the local causeways were underwater.

I remember that -- they never raised the hurricane warning in Palm Beach, even though the center came right through here. NHC later claimed that the hurricane winds remained offshore, far away from the eye. That was a CYA job if there ever was one. Every other hurricane, it's "hurricane force winds extend xxx miles from the center." Oh no, not Irene. Yeah. Right.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Emily for the Yuctan. Here is my reasoning, a day in a half before it had 153 knot flight level winds reported by recon. With 136 knots Hrd surface winds. Which makes it very close to being a cat5. The data shown it to be a cat4 into the Yuctan. Then when we get the reports out of there we find that there is only cat1 or maybe cat2 damage??? It was a big suprize. I don't know if I should call it a dud at this landfall. But nowhere near what I was expecting. Over northern Mexico different story.

[EDR1222]

Floyd was another one. It did cause significant damage in North Carolina, but they initially thought it was going to be a nighmare scenario for Florida. Sitting off the coast with 155 mph winds, many of the forecasts had it coming ashore before turning north.

Again, not trying to minimize what it did in North Carolina, but at the time, some mets were drawing comparisons to the 1928 Hurricane that came ashore near Palm Beach as a Category 4 and also the Hurricane of 1947 that was very large and intense.

[jax]

Why hasn't anybody mentioned Hurricane Ethel in 1960?



Don't worry, as I mentioned in another thread, it couldn't have been a Cat 5 and then suddenly weakened to a TS. Still, even if it strengthened to a Cat 2, that would still be quite a dud.

There has got to be something wrong with this... Acording to this... Ethel
went from a TD to a Cat5 and back down to a Cat 1 in less than 24 hours!

WHAT?
Hurricane Archive
Tracking Map



Tracking info for Hurricane ETHEL
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
12 GMT 9/14/60 23.9N 90.6W 45 -999 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 9/14/60 25.6N 89.7W 85 -999 Category 1 Hurricane
0 GMT 9/15/60 27.0N 89.1W 125 981 Category 3 Hurricane
6 GMT 9/15/60 28.1N 88.9W 160 -999 Category 5 Hurricane
12 GMT 9/15/60 29.1N 88.9W 90 -999 Category 1 Hurricane
18 GMT 9/15/60 29.9N 89.0W 70 -999 Tropical Storm
0 GMT 9/16/60 30.7N 89.0W 50 -999 Tropical Storm
6 GMT 9/16/60 31.3N 89.0W 40 -999 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 9/16/60 32.0N 88.9W 40 -999 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 9/16/60 32.9N 88.5W 35 -999 Tropical Depression
0 GMT 9/17/60 33.9N 88.1W 30 -999 Tropical Depression
6 GMT 9/17/60 35.0N 88.0W 25 -999 Tropical Depression
12 GMT 9/17/60 36.0N 87.6W 15 -999 Tropical Depression
18 GMT 9/17/60 36.8N 87.0W 15 -999 Tropical Depression

[recmod]

I agree with a couple previous posts that Floyd was one of THE big duds (only as far as FLORIDA is concerned). The media hype for that storm was incredible. Just a week earlier, Hurricane Dennis had brushed up the coast, far enough offshore to cause little effects in Florida...but close-enough to prime the hurricane-hype media engine.

As Floyd approached with winds at 155mph, the media was predicting winds in excess of 100 mph as far inland as ORLANDO! While the storm was never predicted to actually make landfall, it was forecast to pass extremely close to the East coast. Floyd's immense size would result in hurricane-force winds reaching far inland. Living in Orlando, I was quite scared. Everything shut down in preparation for the impending doom.

The next day, Floyd had turned north much earlier than thought, and the most we got was some rain and a few 45 mph gusts.

--Lou

[angelwing]

My vote goes for hurricane Gloria in September 1985...

I've never seen such media hype....after recon reported back 150 mph winds (later reduced to 145) and a central pressure of 919 mb. Everyone believed it was going to level the entire east coast from North Carolina to New England; I heard comparisms to the 1938 and 1944 hurricanes....that New York City, Providence, possibly even Atlantic City and Norfolk were about to be destroyed.

It quickly became apparent that Gloria's bark was worse than her bite....and most post storm surveys now believe Gloria was not even a major hurricane when it struck the U.S.....but instead a 90 kt cat-2 at Cape Hatteras (gusts to 104 kt at Diamond Shoals Light) and no stronger than a 75-80 kt cat-1 at Long Island, NY landfall (peak wind gusts on Long Island were around 85-90 kt; gusts reached 80 kt at Bridgeport, CT).

Another much-hyped hurricane that turned out to be a "dud" was Belle in 1976. Hurricane Belle was a formidable hurricane south of North Carolina (958 mb/ 100-105 kt), but her slow movement (20-25 mph) northward offshore allowed cooler waters to drastically weaken the storm before striking Long Island (near NYC).....Belle was barely a hurricane at landfall.

PW

I recall that Gloria was the first storm to be given wall-to-wall coverage by the then-fledgling Cable News Network (CNN). I found the amount of hyperbole they were giving it -- on-air "experts" suggesting New York City residents perform vertical evacuations due to the possibility of a substantial storm surge in midtown Manhattan -- rather amusing even back then. I can only imagine what kind of media frenzy a storm on that path would create today...there wouldn't be a single loaf of white bread or pack of D batteries left from Wilmington, NC to Brunswick Nova Scotia!!!

I remember driving thru Gloria trying to get to work over the Roosevelt Blvd Extension (for the philly people)was a mess and my mom didn't want me to drive as it was a brand new car, lol, think I was 18 or 19 at the time

[OuterBanker]

Floyd a dud? Gimme a break, it was the largest natural disaster in NC's history. Next time you guys are welcome to it.

I would vote for Felix also. It was approaching us at the worse possible angle with media hype you wouldn't believe. Then screeched on the brakes, turned tail and ran.

[BayouVenteux]

Emily for the Yuctan. Here is my reasoning, a day in a half before it had 153 knot flight level winds reported by recon. With 136 knots Hrd surface winds. Which makes it very close to being a cat5. The data shown it to be a cat4 into the Yuctan. Then when we get the reports out of there we find that there is only cat1 or maybe cat2 damage??? It was a big suprize. I don't know if I should call it a dud at this landfall. But nowhere near what I was expecting. Over northern Mexico different story.

No. You really shouldn't call it a "dud". Part of the reason the damage was less than many people expected was that Emily had quite a small area of sustained hurricane winds, and while it did not maintain the intensity it achieved in the western Caribbean, it was still a potent system when it made landfall on the Yucatan coast.

IMHO, we really should save the "dud" designation for the Debbys and Earls of the hurricane world, not cat 4's and 5's that "only" came in as cat 2's or low 3's at landfall.

[jasons2k]

The biggest "dud" IMO was Debby. I remember calling my father in Big Pine Key pleading with him to evacuate. People in the keys were very concerned that they were going to get a direct hit from a Cat. 3.

And then, poof - nada; nothing. Quite different than a storm "turning away" from Florida such as Floyd IMO. Debby just disintegrated.

The biggest "surprise" could be any number of storms. Charley, Opal, Irene, even Alicia could be on that list. But my nomination is either Galveston in 1900 or the Indianola hurricanes that wiped-out the once thriving seaport.

For me, the biggest surprise was in Kate 1985. I lived in Savannah, GA and Kate made landfall in the FL Panhandle. We were just supposed to get some minor squalls. At about 4 AM I was awakened by falling trees in our yard and one landed in my bedroom (I was only 11 at the time). All the schools were "suddenly" closed and I went to the office with my Dad. The official track shows the center went well NW of Savannah but I would argue that's incorrect. I was in downtown Savannah and I distinctly remember the eye (or what was left of it) go directly overhead at midday. The wind died and the sun came out, then after about 20 minutes we got the backside. Probably not a huge surprise compared to the Charley's out there, but it was a memorable shocker for me.

[BayouVenteux]

The biggest "dud" IMO was Debby. I remember calling my father in Big Pine Key pleading with him to evacuate. People in the keys were very concerned that they were going to get a direct hit from a Cat. 3.

And then, poof - nada; nothing. Quite different than a storm "turning away" from Florida such as Floyd IMO. Debby just disintegrated.

The biggest "surprise" could be any number of storms. Charley, Opal, Irene, even Alicia could be on that list. But my nomination is either Galveston in 1900 or the Indianola hurricanes that wiped-out the once thriving seaport.

For me, the biggest surprise was in Kate 1985. I lived in Savannah, GA and Kate made landfall in the FL Panhandle. We were just supposed to get some minor squalls. At about 4 AM I was awakened by falling trees in our yard and one landed in my bedroom (I was only 11 at the time). All the schools were "suddenly" closed and I went to the office with my Dad. The official track shows the center went well NW of Savannah but I would argue that's incorrect. I was in downtown Savannah and I distinctly remember the eye (or what was left of it) go directly overhead at midday. The wind died and the sun came out, then after about 20 minutes we got the backside. Probably not a huge surprise compared to the Charley's out there, but it was a memorable shocker for me.

Adding to the suprise for many was the fact that Kate was a fairly potent mid-November storm that made a northern Gulf landfall. With it's rapid forward speed and direction, it's quite possible that you did indeed experience hurricane conditions in the Savannah area, as you would have been in the right front quadrant of what was still a category 1 storm as it raced across SE Georgia.