92L Invest

[jrod]

The ULL to the WEST looks like it is pumping some dry air in. I expect the convection to diminish but not completly dissappear soon. If there is a tight LLC somewhere then that might help keep the convection firing up. I dont expect anything out of it for the next day. Too early to speculate on the track, I like to see where the center if first.


Just my opinion not an official forecast. See the latest from the NHC and NWS for all weather info.

[gkrangers]

There is an ULL on the western side. There was an LLC to the south of the whole mess that persisted all afternoon, not sure if its still there. No convection was associated with it.

I don't see how it could develop until the ULL weakens or vacates the area.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Check the 1km visible sat loop from 18z to about 2145z and you can see a tigh LLC close the convection. Earlier today it was under the convection but sheared. It will be interesting to see which LLC will persist with convection

Looking at the latest sat IR, it looks like the two centers are moving closer together, the N most one is moving W while the S one is moving N

[gkrangers]

Check the 1km visible sat loop from 18z to about 2145z and you can see a tigh LLC close the convection. Earlier today it was under the convection but sheared. It will be interesting to see which LLC will persist with convection

Looking at the latest sat IR, it looks like the two centers are moving closer together, the N most one is moving W while the S one is moving N

Your right....I see that now. As of last visible there was the one way to the south, and the one moving out from under the convection...upper level winds from the south are just gonna keep blowing the convection off.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 020229
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT MON AUG 01 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST FOR A FEW HUNDRED
MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION TO OCCUR...BUT THEY MAY GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

[jrod]

WHOOPS, I meant the ULL to the west. My mistake.

I think I can make out a LLC now. I am anxious to see what tommorow's visibles show.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yep, that dry air and shear. But I just thought of something...if the LLC holds the convection and somehow gets far enough N it could shoot into a low shear, high SST environment i.e. doe se doe around the ULL and keep the high to the NE. Sheesh I am getting tired and silly now....I'll laugh at that tomorrow.

NOT OFFICIAL, IN FACT DOES NOT RESEMBLE A FORCAST OF ANY KIND

[gkrangers]

Yep, that dry air and shear. But I just thought of something...if the LLC holds the convection and somehow gets far enough N it could shoot into a low shear, high SST environment i.e. doe se doe around the ULL and keep the high to the NE. Sheesh I am getting tired and silly now....I'll laugh at that tomorrow.

NOT OFFICIAL, IN FACT DOES NOT RESEMBLE A FORCAST OF ANY KIND

Well the "blob" should move north and the shear should lessen.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The enviroment is becoming more favable. The shear over the system is down to 10 to 15 knots. While to the southeast only 20 knots. That LLC is starting to push under the convection. This will likely form at this rate.

[gkrangers]

There is still considerable 200mb level shear over the west and northern sides. 30-40kts.

mid-low level shear isnt bad.

[Thunder44]

Floater 1 is on 92L now.





Looks like there there's one LLC circulating around a broader LLC.

[EDR1222]

Maybe there will be something to track if it can get more organized.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050802 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050802 1200 050803 0000 050803 1200 050804 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.6N 69.3W 28.3N 69.0W 30.2N 68.0W 32.1N 66.0W
BAMM 26.6N 69.3W 28.1N 68.9W 29.8N 68.0W 31.2N 66.0W
A98E 26.6N 69.3W 28.6N 68.8W 30.2N 67.6W 31.9N 65.5W
LBAR 26.6N 69.3W 28.2N 68.8W 29.7N 67.9W 31.1N 66.6W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050804 1200 050805 1200 050806 1200 050807 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 33.6N 63.1W 36.6N 53.0W 37.2N 42.5W 36.9N 44.2W
BAMM 32.1N 63.8W 32.9N 58.9W 33.1N 57.2W 33.9N 56.4W
A98E 33.3N 62.9W 34.8N 55.6W 35.8N 48.3W 37.2N 47.9W
LBAR 32.4N 64.9W 36.0N 60.3W 39.3N 53.3W 43.9N 46.1W
SHIP 43KTS 48KTS 49KTS 43KTS
DSHP 43KTS 48KTS 49KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.6N LONCUR = 69.3W DIRCUR = 10DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 24.4N LONM12 = 69.6W DIRM12 = 10DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 23.0N LONM24 = 69.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


12:00z run of the models.

[BensonTCwatcher]

The N-most center (broad) looks virtually stationary, while the smaller LLC (one that is more south and fired the convection) looks to be getting drawn in to the braoder circ.

yesterday big circ was at 25.7/68.7 and was the smaller ( or so it appeared since it was under the convection) while the smaller one was at 23.8/69.6 They have traded places and now the upper LLC looks broader and seems to be persistent.

This still looks like a fish long term but the thing that bugs me is the high which is blocking N movement and the wetter air that is finding it's way toward the SW quadrant. It could pull it's act together if it shakes the dry air and shear is less now.

[Derek Ortt]

this is not going to be a fish

this is going to impact Bermuda

[BensonTCwatcher]

this is not going to be a fish

this is going to impact Bermuda

Sorry, CORRECION not a fish. Thanks Derek, fish storms don't impact land. Long term my guess is after Bermuda it will follow model guidance.

[WindRunner]

Well, the LLC that disappeared yesterday is back, but the convection is still well seperated from it.

The QuickSCAT sat background showed the LLC the best, that's why it's here.

[Thunder44]

Well, the LLC that disappeared yesterday is back, but the convection is still well seperated from it.

The QuickSCAT sat background showed the LLC the best, that's why it's here.

Look at the dates on top. This image is from yesterday.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yes, this is differnt aminal this morning. If you check the latest vis loops the souther LLC is being drawn in the the broader LLC ( new center) and teh smaller one is elongated and collapsing. Also the ULL is almost on top of the LLC. Looks like one giant circulation on a angle no?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It looks to me that a new LLC has formed under the convectionl near 27.5 north/68 west. In which is some what broad. But at the same time it is drawing the weak LLC to the south in. The ULL is still to the west. I also think that this will quickly become oreganized over the next 24 hours.