What's up with the Tropics?!

[AnthonyC]

We went from a nonstop, active beginning of the season to nothing the past week/two weeks. What's up? It seems all atmospheric conditions around the tropics are unfavorable for any development. Actually, I don't see one region in the Atlantic favorable for any cycle development in the next 36-48 hours. What's the deal?

Anthony

[gkrangers]

The MJO is unfavorable. However, I do not know what that means.

[EDR1222]

Here is a thread posted by Don Sutherland with some really good information on the MJO.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=68766

[cycloneye]

And also here is what I and many members haved been discussing about MJO.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/posting.p ... t&p=977693

But things will heat up bigtime from mid august.

[skysummit]

This is the calm before the storm. June and July gave us a little practice, now things have calmed down for the sea to kick up its temperature a bit.

[Stormcenter]

This is the calm before the storm. June and July gave us a little practice, now things have calmed down for the sea to kick up its temperature a bit.

Unfortunately I think you are 100% correct skysummit.

[Brent]

This is the calm before the storm. June and July gave us a little practice, now things have calmed down for the sea to kick up its temperature a bit.

I agree.

[Steve]

What's up with the tropics? How about the NW Gulf SST's?

http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gm/05aug/ ... 2_0426.png



Steve

[Thunder44]

I think the better question to ask is why the season was so active so early. Atomspheric conditions are changing all the time. You can't expect the same pattern to continue throughout the season. We are just in a period when the atmosphere across the in the Atlantic Basin is generally not favorable for development. Something more typical earlier in the season.