How much faith should we have.....

[NCGal]

In the Farmer's Almanac???? They are predicting a hurricane for the Southeast Region for sometime between September 4-7. I remember in 1996 when they predicted a hurricane around the same time and here in Raleigh NC, we got slammed by Hurricane Fran.
What are your thoughts on the Farmer's Almanac?

[beachbum_al]

I don't know.

[WindRunner]

They also called a TS for a good bit of the east 7/21-7/25. Though Franklin came along, it wasn't much.

[wxman57]

Farmers Almanac = junk science. Read it like you would read your daily horoscope in the paper. Forecasts are generally written so vaguely that they could claim verification if just about anything happened.

[wxmann_91]

They called for a tornado outbreak in late April, never happened. Good read though.

[wxmann_91]

Though I don't trust in these forecasts, this is what it says:

For Florida:

Watch for a hurricane in early September.

Southeast coast (GA to NC):

Expect a hurricane in early September.

Atlantic corridor (Boston to VA):

A hurricane will threaten or strike the coast in early September.

New England:

Heavy rain from a tropical storm will occur in early September.

2005's Hurricane Floyd? Time will tell.

[wxwatcher91]

Farmers Almanac is science fiction. In 1999 it forecasted the 1999-2000 winter to be the worst winter ever in New England. It WAS the worst winter ever but not the way they thought... 11 snow "storms" and a total of 30 to 50 inches over southern New England (which, for you southern folk, is about 30-40 inches below average)

[Astro_man92]

nahh.........

[dixiebreeze]

In the Farmer's Almanac???? They are predicting a hurricane for the Southeast Region for sometime between September 4-7. I remember in 1996 when they predicted a hurricane around the same time and here in Raleigh NC, we got slammed by Hurricane Fran.
What are your thoughts on the Farmer's Almanac?

That's a pretty safe time to predict a hurricane, since there has traditionally been tropical action over Labor Day weekend. Just good guessing with the odds stacked in favor of the date.

[EDR1222]

It is entertaining to read, but it is not based on science or meteorological data.

[WeatherEmperor]

lets just say that if people really could predict exactly where a tropical cyclone will make landfall, there would be alot of millionares by now.

<RICKY>

[Astro_man92]

K here is a very weird question


If we could perfectly predict hurricanes how would that be an advantage????

I have an Idea of the advantages but I would like to know what you think???

[WeatherEmperor]

K here is a very weird question


If we could perfectly predict hurricanes how would that be an advantage????

I have an Idea of the advantages but I would like to know what you think???

well it could be an economic advantage. Im not gonna get into that because you already know where that would go.

<RICKY>

[djtil]

how much faith?

a little more than in joe b.
a little less than in santa.

[dhweather]

In the Farmer's Almanac???? They are predicting a hurricane for the Southeast Region for sometime between September 4-7. I remember in 1996 when they predicted a hurricane around the same time and here in Raleigh NC, we got slammed by Hurricane Fran.
What are your thoughts on the Farmer's Almanac?

An integer value between -1 and 1.

[jrod]

I like the alamanac but I also like to read the horoscopes so go figure.

[Jim Cantore]

they nailed the Blizzard of 2003 right on

I think theres some truth to it

[Air Force Met]

they nailed the Blizzard of 2003 right on

I think theres some truth to it

A blind squirrel finds an acorn every once in a while...

A broken clock is right twice a day...

If you really want to find out if there is some truth in it...verify "EVERYTHING"...not just the things that are right. If you verify EVERY forecast for EVERY place...you will easily see that the odds are about the same as you would find in a random number generator. You can't just say "It got this one thing right so there is some truth in it..." when it gets much more wrong.

I was supposed to be 2" above normal for rainfall in June. Do I need to remind you (or anyone else) about the drought over Texas during that period? I got NO rain in June...and I was supposed to be 2" above normal.

I am supposed to be 1" BELOW normal for July. I had over 10"...which is NOT normal.

Out west it was supposed to be about normal temp wise....they set records for how hot it was. Where is the prediction for Hurricane Dennis, TS Cindy and Arlene?

You get better odds from a dart board.

[skysummit]

It's like the National Enquirer of the future.

[tallywx]

"Our weather forecasts are determined by the use of a secret formula (devised in 1792 by the founder of this Almanac, Robert B. Thomas), enhanced by the most modern scientific calculations based on solar activity, particularly sunspot cycles. "

Boy, if they're using a formula developed in friggin 1792 to predict the weather in 2005. Need I remind people what the state of science was in 1792? The lightbulb would take another 100 years to come about.

In 1792: "Cartwright invents a machine for making rope "
"John Prince is the first to build a microscope in the United States"

And yet using all knowledge available at the time, some farmer was able to come up with a weather prediction method that belies even those most advanced of present-day models?

Enjoy your pleasure reading.