Wow- these are some warm waters

[hurricanetrack]

Look at this link- some of you may know it well- others may not. This is a great SST map showing the different areas of warm water and the various maximum potential winds/pressure. Just look at the extent of the 26.5 degree line and even more concerning- look how much 29C water there is out there...and finally, how much of the Atlantic is warm enough for a tropical cyclone right now. Yikes.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/atlpot.png

[Astro_man92]

WOW lakes michigan and huron could easily supot TS and cat 1 hurricanes

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Though I am shocked to the extent to which the temperatures in the Atlantic have risen, I am not surprised that they have risen, for a number of reasons:
1. Active Multi-Decadal Cycle in the Atlantic
2. Hydrocarbonic Molecular Exergonic Reaction Release which exacerbates temps as well as storm intensity during active cycles. Greenhouse gases in excess may play a part in this point.

[Astro_man92]

Though I am shocked to the extent to which the temperatures in the Atlantic have risen, I am not surprised that they have risen, for a number of reasons:
1. Active Multi-Decadal Cycle in the Atlantic
2. Hydrocarbonic Molecular Exergonic Reaction Release which exacerbates temps as well as storm intensity during active cycles. Greenhouse gases in excess may play a part in this point.

what is up with the HMERR(Hydrocarbonic Molecular Exergonic Reaction Release )

EDIT: what is it?

[Acral]

Speaking of greenhouse gases, how many really think that Global Warming is affecting weather cycles, specifically tropical cycles?

[baitism]

Speaking of greenhouse gases, how many really think that Global Warming is affecting weather cycles, specifically tropical cycles?

Not me.

[Astro_man92]

well I know that it is improving plant growth for ovios resons but I think it has at least a little.

[wlfpack81]

Interesting graphic. That area off the SC/NC coast concerns me since right now since it can support Cat 4 to 5 storms. Floyd, Fran, Bertha were bad enough but at least they were falling apart as they were nearing land. Would hate to think what a well developed Cat 4 (or even possibly Cat 5) would do to Wilmington and the surrounding areas.

[WindRunner]

Speaking of greenhouse gases, how many really think that Global Warming is affecting weather cycles, specifically tropical cycles?

its not effecting the tropical cyclones, but the heat is making it easier for them to develop

[gatorcane]

doesn't matter about any of this. SAL is too strong.

[EDR1222]

Speaking of greenhouse gases, how many really think that Global Warming is affecting weather cycles, specifically tropical cycles?

I am not buying it.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Once the SAL dimishes, the tropics could very well explode with activity. (But there will be a lull before this). In 2004, given the right conditions to develop, storms did not just develop, but exploded in a short time, Aug. 2004 was a record for number of storms.

My hydrocarbonics is just a theory, as of now I haven't found a whole lot of emperical evidence for it.

Anyhow, my theory on hydrocarbonic molecules states that when greenhouse gases (especially methane) react to form other gases such as carbon dioxide, a lot of heat energy is released (the potential energy previously stored in methane). That heat energy may increase surface warming as well as storm intensity- but this I cannot yet prove scientifically.

[Jim Cantore]

water temps are near 80 in Cape May New Jersey

The only other time that happened was last year but that was in late august

[WeatherEmperor]

SAL doesnt last forever....oh Im not gonna talk about SAL anymore.

<RICKY>

[drezee]

at 22z, coolest SST in GOM was 86.0F

Offshore Data at 22Z Aug 01
DAY/ ID Latit Longit Temp Dewp Wind Gust MaxGst Press PTend SeaT Wvht WvPd FULLID
HOUR (-degrees-) (---C---) (---degr/knots---) (millibars) (C) (m) (s)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
01/22 41550 25.4 -88.9 1016.1 -0.2 31.6 41550
01/22 41550 25.4 -89.0 1016.1 0.0 31.4 41550
01/22 42001 25.8 -89.7 29.9 23.0 100 2 G 4 130 4 1013.9 -3.5 33.4 0.0 0 * 42001
01/22 42002 25.2 -94.4 29.8 22.4 350 2 G 4 030 4 1015.2 -1.6 30.5 0.0 0 42002
01/22 42003 26.0 -85.9 29.5 24.4 080 2 G 4 030 6 1015.1 -1.2 30.7 0.5 8 42003
01/22 42013 27.2 -82.9 320 31.6 42013
01/22 42014 25.2 -82.2 31.6 1015.2 -1.1 31.2 42014
01/22 42019 27.9 -95.4 29.0 23.1 040 6 G 8 040 8 1013.9 -1.8 30.1 0.5 3 42019
01/22 42020 26.9 -96.7 29.2 22.2 070 6 G 6 070 8 1014.6 -1.8 30.0 0.0 0 42020
01/22 42021 28.3 -83.3 1016.1 -1.3 32.1 * 42021
01/22 42035 29.2 -94.4 29.7 24.1 120 6 G 10 1014.3 -1.9 31.3 0.5 3 42035
01/22 42036 28.8 -84.7 29.4 22.2 290 4 G 4 310 4 1015.9 -1.5 31.5 0.5 8 42036
01/22 42038 27.4 -92.6 30.4 23.3 000 0 G 2 130 4 1014.7 -1.6 31.9 0.0 0 42038
01/22 42039 28.8 -85.6 27.5 22.5 150 4 G 6 1016.0 -1.3 29.8 0.5 9 42039
01/22 42040 29.2 -88.2 28.4 22.9 190 4 G 4 180 6 1015.3 -1.3 30.5 0.5 5 42040
01/22 42055 22.0 -94.0 29.6 23.1 070 4 G 6 070 6 1014.4 -1.2 32.7 0.0 0 * 42055
01/22 42067 30.0 -88.6 28.0 28.0 040 4 G 6 42067
01/22 42361 27.6 -92.5 29.0 22.0 210 4 1015.9 42361
01/22 42361 27.6 -92.5 30.0 22.0 210 4 1015.9 42361
01/22 42361 27.6 -92.5 30.0 22.0 210 4 1015.9 -1.7 42361
01/22 42362 27.8 -90.7 32.0 24.0 070 8 1016.3 30.4 42362
01/22 42362 27.8 -90.7 32.0 24.0 080 6 1015.9 30.3 42362
01/22 42362 27.8 -90.7 32.0 24.0 090 10 1016.3 -1.3 30.4 42362
01/22 42363 28.2 -89.2 000 0 42363
01/22 42363 28.2 -89.2 130 2 42363
01/22 ARPF1 28.4 -82.6 31.0 320 4 G 8 1013.7 -1.5 31.2 ARPF1
01/22 BURL1 28.9 -89.3 30.1 150 3 G 4 180 5 1015.5 -1.2 BURL1
01/22 CDRF1 29.1 -82.9 30.0 23.3 300 4 G 7 330 10 1016.3 -1.5 CDRF1
01/22 DGNB 29.7 -95.0 32.1 25.4 1015.2 -2.8 32.2 * DGNB
01/22 DPIA1 30.3 -88.0 28.0 22.8 320 6 G 6 280 8 1015.6 -0.7 31.4 DPIA1
01/22 GDIL1 29.3 -89.9 30.0 23.3 130 5 G 7 170 11 1015.7 -1.0 32.8 * GDIL1
01/22 HSSF1 28.8 -82.6 30.7 330 8 G 10 1015.2 -1.5 31.9 HSSF1
01/22 ILDL1 29.0 -90.4 30.6 160 5 G 7 1016.4 33.0 0.0 0 * ILDL1
01/22 KTNF1 29.8 -83.5 28.2 23.8 290 5 G 7 290 7 1016.3 -1.9 KTNF1
01/22 LUML1 29.3 -90.6 30.5 23.9 160 6 G 9 1014.7 -1.6 33.8 * LUML1
01/22 MRSL1 29.4 -92.0 31.2 190 3 G 7 1014.9 0.0 0 MRSL1
01/22 PCNT2 28.5 -96.3 160 8 35.2 * PCNT2
01/22 PCNT2 28.5 -96.3 160 8 G 12 35.2 * PCNT2
01/22 PTAT2 27.8 -97.0 29.5 22.5 130 9 G 10 120 10 1014.2 -1.9 31.4 PTAT2
01/22 PTRF1 28.3 -82.6 31.7 330 6 G 8 33.9 * PTRF1
01/22 RTOT2 27.8 -96.9 120 8 G 10 RTOT2
01/22 SANF1 24.1 -82.0 29.7 100 8 G 9 100 11 1014.5 -1.6 30.4 SANF1
01/22 SGOF1 29.4 -84.8 27.6 22.4 100 2 G 3 060 7 1016.2 -1.6 30.6 SGOF1
01/22 SHPF1 30.1 -84.2 27.3 1016.4 -2.4 SHPF1
01/22 SLPL1 29.5 -91.5 31.2 180 6 G 8 1015.2 33.6 0.0 0 * SLPL1
01/22 SPLL1 28.9 -90.4 31.2 130 4 G 7 1015.6 33.0 0.0 0 * SPLL1
01/22 SRST2 29.7 -94.0 30.5 20.6 140 7 G 9 130 11 1014.7 -1.6 SRST2
01/22 TAML1 29.2 -90.6 30.5 23.6 170 6 G 8 1015.0 -1.5 34.7 * TAML1
01/22 TARF1 28.1 -82.6 32.7 330 4 G 8 TARF1
01/22 VENF1 27.1 -82.4 29.9 23.9 290 9 G 11 280 13 1014.8 -1.4 VENF1

[Swimdude]

WOW lakes michigan and huron could easily supot TS and cat 1 hurricanes

Despite how horrifying it would be to see a hurricane form over the Great Lakes, I would probably enjoy it thoroughly.

[Huckster]

The Great Lakes are not warm enough for a true hurricane to form over them. There is some warm water there now, but it's just not warm enough. The only place where there are waters that seem nearly warm enough is the far southern part of Lake Michigan, but that's a rather small spot, near shore, and there's not the necessary heat potential there.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Man that's funny. A cat 1 in Chicago!

[angelwing]

:hehe: Man that's funny. A cat 1 in Chicago!

Well it *is* the windy city

[Derek Ortt]

I believe Bertha underwent RI just before landfall, going from 70KT to 90KT