In 384 hours....

[hurricanetrack]

This is what we could see in the Basin....overall, not a bad prediction- just a matter of where these will be at that time....I think the "if" there will be anything is a foregone conclusion...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384m.gif

[gpickett00]

mmmmhmm

[gkrangers]

Oh come on...its the 384 hour GFS.....

[P.K.]

The GFS is good but I wouldn't trust it that far out, it usually changes from run to run.

[mtm4319]

So what's the average track error on this... 5000 miles?

[WindRunner]

It's interesting, but wxman91 beat you to it in here:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=69493

[Scorpion]

You shouldnt use the GFS to see where there will be TC's in the next 10 days, but rather see the trend. Looks like conditions will be more favorable during that timeframe so we might see a few systems form. Whether they are fish or not is still unknown.

[gatorcane]

384 hours or 2+ weeks? The GFS can't even get 2+ days right sometimes.

[The Big Dog]

Geez... why stop at 16 days? Why not 30 days? 60 days? How about the whole year?

[gkrangers]

Thats Mark Sudduth..I think...he's the "hurricane pervert".

He doesn't need to be educated on why the 384HR GFS is useless...I think he just posted it to show that by mid August, there should be considerable activity again

[Jim Cantore]

Hey Mark that one in the east cribbian dont look so great convection wise today and I cant see much of a spin

the one east of the bahamas is moving north and looks horribly disorginized

the wave east of the islands looks promising but not immedately

down the road though I can agree with that map

[Jim Cantore]

But on the other hand you cant really predict that far out the tropics as we know are exremely unpredictable

[HurricaneJoe22]

In 384 hours....we could all be dead

[hurricanetrack]

Just a little note to ask that we be careful about using the term "pervert" when refering to me. I get the idea- but it just rubs me the wrong the way....

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Would not be surprised to see multiple systems by Aug. 20

[gkrangers]

Just a little note to ask that we be careful about using the term "pervert" when refering to me. I get the idea- but it just rubs me the wrong the way....

I just remember hearing the term used on Radio NHCWX...maybe it was DT that said it? Sorry.

[sponger]

I think he would prefer hurrifreak. Or maybe weather obsessor or he who parks trucks in eyewall, Just a thought!

[hurricanetrack]

Jesse, my partnter in all of this, calls me "Yeti" or "Shrek". Anything but pervert....has a bad undertone to it....

[JTD]

Mark Sudduth, is that you???

You're the one that works with Jeff Flock, formerly of CNN right? What's he like? He seems to love hurricanes just as much as meterology buffs do.

I hope I'm not confusing you with the one Jeff Flock mentions. You were in Charley and Ivan with him right? And he interviewed you during Isabel?

[EDR1222]

That is a long way out for sure. I don't know if that is something I am going to buy into just yet.