Poll: Will a cat 5 hit the U.S in 2005

[Jim Cantore]

[WeatherEmperor]

I would say no. Not for a long long time.

<RICKY>

[Scorpion]

No. Strong Cat 4 maybe, but not a 5. Cat 5 landfalls are incredibly rare.

[Ivanhater]

No. Strong Cat 4 maybe, but not a 5. Cat 5 landfalls are incredibly rare.

so is having 2 cat 4s in july

[Astro_man92]

No. Strong Cat 4 maybe, but not a 5. Cat 5 landfalls are incredibly rare.

so is having 2 cat 4s in july

Still that does not mean that we are going to have a cat 5 landfall. We might not even get a cat 5 this year you never know. But I consider emily of being a weak cat 5. At one time

[Ivanhater]

i didnt say we would have a cat 5 hit the us, but this season has already proving to be "rare" so by saying no because its rare doesnt hold credible during this season

[BayouVenteux]

No. Strong Cat 4 maybe, but not a 5. Cat 5 landfalls are incredibly rare.

IMHO, they're not incredibly rare in the relative scope of natural phenomena, merely in the experience of recorded human history in the western hemisphere, which as hurricanes go, only extends back 100-150 years with much quantifiable certainty, and maybe another 300-500 years with any record at all. European seafarers (who dutifully recorded such things) were virtually nonexistent in the western Atlantic basin before the 1500's, so beyond that, we really can't say with any degree of confidence just how frequent or infrequent a category 5-type storm is in the grand scheme of things.

On the other hand, if 1935 (Labor Day) to 1969 (Camille) to 1992 (Andrew) is reflective of a typical span, perhaps a 20 to 35 year interval is a not unusually brief period of time between category 5 landfalls on the U.S. portion of the North American continent. If...emphasis on IF...that may be the case, you might expect the next to occur sometime between, say, 2015 and 2030.