Official 93L Invest thread=93L is not anymore at NRL

[clfenwi]

205 TWD

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20
KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE SE CARIBBEAN AND IS INTERACTING
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 13N FROM
62W-66W.

[elysium]

93L is finished. The same conditions that scuttled 92L have also done away with 93L. Until the surrounding environment improves, we can forget about development in the Caribbean. But yeah, 93L was looking good for a while there, iit just raced forward at about 25 mph into trecherous conditions. It's gone. Conditions in the Caribbean will take at least a week to improve up to the level of being able to support tropical development. Anything coming in there now will suffer the same fate as 93L.

[Thunder44]

93L is finished. The same conditions that scuttled 92L have also done away with 93L. Until the surrounding environment improves, we can forget about development in the Caribbean. But yeah, 93L was looking good for a while there, iit just raced forward at about 25 mph into trecherous conditions. It's gone. Conditions in the Caribbean will take at least a week to improve up to the level of being able to support tropical development. Anything coming in there now will suffer the same fate as 93L.

93L is not finished. 92L was under strong shear. The conditions are not nearly as hostile as was with 92L. In fact, they more favorable.

[elysium]

No, this one's dissipated. 93L is gone. Things may pick-up again in a couple weeks, but then a fish pattern will in all liklihood set in. It may be a while before we see the type of conditions we had earlier in the month. The over-all l Atlantic season should last a lot longer than times past, so it's highly likely that we will eventually have a lot of strong storms to track.

Hurricvane Camille would fall apart under the conditions in the Caribbean now. That has to change.

[caribepr]

No, this one's dissipated. 93L is gone. Things may pick-up again in a couple weeks, but then a fish pattern will in all liklihood set in. It may be a while before we see the type of conditions we had earlier in the month. The over-all l Atlantic season should last a lot longer than times past, so it's highly likely that we will eventually have a lot of strong storms to track.

Hurricvane Camille would fall apart under the conditions in the Caribbean now. That has to change.

When I managed a hotel on St. Croix and it would start to rain, it was not uncommon for guests to ask me, how long will this last? The first time I was asked I just sort of looked stunned and said...I don't know! Then I would say - Well, God forgot to call me and let me know. Finally I would say, Nine minutes. It will rain nine minutes. And THAT was the answer people really seemed to want. The above strikes me somewhat the same and is my first grin of the day.

[Thunder44]

Apparently TPC thinks it's still alive!

554
ABNT20 KNHC 010924
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON AUG 01 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA...IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN INCREASING...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

[Hunter74]

Honestly, this place is becoming a joke.. To many rookies spouting out when they really should just chill and wait...

[Frank2]

Gee, I can't help notice that you are a newbie, too. Here is the current visible photo - sorry, but I don't see anything here worth mentioning (and I worked in the business for quite a few years)...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

Frank

[skysummit]

No, this one's dissipated. 93L is gone.

It's definately not dead. Give it a while...just sit down and relax.

Things may pick-up again in a couple weeks, but then a fish pattern will in all liklihood set in. It may be a while before we see the type of conditions we had earlier in the month. The over-all l Atlantic season should last a lot longer than times past, so it's highly likely that we will eventually have a lot of strong storms to track.

What exactly are you basing this on?

Hurricvane Camille would fall apart under the conditions in the Caribbean now. That has to change. I would not call this "trecherous" conditions as in an earlier post. The conditions are not great, but they're really not bad either.

This was really not called for. You really should give Camille a little more respect.

[rockyman]

Anyone know why the 6z tropical models did not run? Also...the 12z tropicals are late, too. I've noticed that the model runs the last few weeks have been running slower than normal...last season the tropical suite is always so prompt (even with everyone hitting the "refresh" button around 7:30 and 1:30 twice a day).

[bvigal]

When I managed a hotel on St. Croix and it would start to rain, it was not uncommon for guests to ask me, how long will this last? The first time I was asked I just sort of looked stunned and said...I don't know! Then I would say - Well, God forgot to call me and let me know. Finally I would say, Nine minutes. It will rain nine minutes. And THAT was the answer people really seemed to want. The above strikes me somewhat the same and is my first grin of the day.

That is a great one, I love it!!

[Dean4Storms]

You guys have got to learn to play the waiting game with these waves/disturbances. There is NO LLC with 93L or 92 for that matter, they are just waves. You must learn to give these systems time to show convective consistancy with deep convection refiring over the same area usually for a full day or longer before you get any organizing low at the surface. We have a long season ahead.


93L must show some convective consistancy and will be moving into a somewhat more favorable enviro. over the next couple of days. It MUST become more organized and develop more convection. No matter the outcome, most of the global models do not develop it right now, so I wouldn't stay to frantic over it.

[Brent]

Recon will be cancelled today... but it's far from dead. I've seen countless systems in the Eastern Caribbean become named in the Western Caribbean.

[Thunder44]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 011300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT MON 01 AUGUST 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z AUG 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-065

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. NOTE: ALL TASKING ON THE SUSPECT AREA WAS CANCELED BY NHC AT
01/1115Z.

[GalvestonDuck]

Honestly, this place is becoming a joke.. To many rookies spouting out when they really should just chill and wait...

Just a reminder since you are new here -- We are all here to learn, teach, and discuss the weather (pros, amateurs, aficionados, and target-residents alike). If you disagree with someone's forecast or thoughts, please explain why you think they are wrong instead of dismissing them as "rookies" and telling them to "chill and wait."

Part of the challenge of watching the tropics is figuring out what blobs will or won't develop and WHY. If you'd like to offer a bit more evidence to this "rookie" and others about why YOU think 93L won't develop, please do so.

[Brent]

11:30 TWO: *yawn*

SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
HAS DIMINISHED...AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

93L is history.RIP.