92L is developing a LLC

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

People take a look at this in tell me I'm not crazy. I see a broad but defined LLC at 24 north/69 west. Which is moving slowly to the north. The convection maybe shearing to the north. But the LLC is becoming much better oreganized.

It sure looks like it is oreganizing. In if that shear weakens or lessens. Watch out.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

Floater one...

Please this is just my option...This could be a classic pop out of no where system.

[Normandy]

Dude its nighttime how can you possible tell if a LLC is developing.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Take a look at that looping. You will see it.

[Ixolib]

Dude its nighttime how can you possible tell if a LLC is developing.

But it's 5 o'clock somewhere!!

[Normandy]

I did and I still dont see it....most of the low level clouds i see are skooting westward under the convection.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't know what to say because its painfully visible.

[MortisFL]

Dude its nighttime how can you possible tell if a LLC is developing.

But it's 5 o'clock somewhere!!

It's always 5 o'clock in Margaritaville.

[thefixed]

Dude its nighttime how can you possible tell if a LLC is developing.

But it's 5 o'clock somewhere!!

It's always 5 o'clock in Margaritaville.

Haha!

[clfenwi]

Well, you're not completely crazy Matt; I do see what you are talking about it. Not sure I buy the idea of it being an LLC, though.

Worth mentioning that UKMET and Canadian models are still selling the idea of a system forming east of the Bahamas in the near future...

[gkrangers]

Well, you're not completely crazy Matt; I do see what you are talking about it. Not sure I buy the idea of it being an LLC, though.

Worth mentioning that UKMET and Canadian models are still selling the idea of a system forming east of the Bahamas in the near future...

NAM does too.

[clfenwi]

Well, you're not completely crazy Matt; I do see what you are talking about it. Not sure I buy the idea of it being an LLC, though.

Worth mentioning that UKMET and Canadian models are still selling the idea of a system forming east of the Bahamas in the near future...

NAM does too.

NAM has been embarassingly eager to get something going... that's why I neglected to mention it.

Canadian has been offering a consistent timeline (i.e. it isn't pulling the 'something will happen in 48 hours' trick for days on end). However, it has had a history of overzealousness as well.

UKMET had been onboard with the idea of something happening, but hopped off and as I've mentioned is back on again. It also likes the new tropical wave:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=072hr

How they get something going with the current shear enviroment is beyond me...

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't see the LLC, but it could just be my eyes

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its really broad area of low pressure. You can see it at around 24 north/69 west. It is not one of those tight ones.

[wayoutfront]

The closet I can see is about 63 W 20 N...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow it has become even tighter this morning. With even a area of convection trying to form over it. Centered at 24 north/68.5. Nice spin there!!!

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[wxman57]

Wow it has become even tighter this morning. With even a area of convection trying to form over it. Centered at 24 north/68.5. Nice spin there!!!

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

For the record, I actually DO see an apparent circulation in that area. I'm looking at an enhanced IR loop that makes low clouds show up better. I plotted surface obs and there is one ship with a NW wind on the western side of the area (no ships to the south). Good news is that it's heading north and will probably head safely out to sea should it develop (and there's no guarantee of development).

[EDR1222]

The NHC mentions that it is getting a little better organized on this mornings 5:30 a.m. discussion. They also mentioned conditions could become a little more favorable for some development during the next day or so.

The good news as WXMAN57 said, is that it is heading northward. All the models indicated it will continue northward then north-northeastward.

[drezee]

first good visible shows potential LLC: 23.2N 69.4W

[wxman57]

I have a sat pic with 1 degree lat/lon lines on it, and I'd estimate the little vortex at 23.2N/69.5W as of 11:54Z (new image). The vortex is moving to the WNW, perhaps around a larger area of low pressure centered near 23N/70W. High southwesterly wind shear is driving convection north and east of the exposed swirl. There's no guarantee the little swirl will survive the day, as the environment there is fairly hostile.

[WindRunner]

If it makes it to the gulf stream or anywhere near the bahamas, we should see some convection fire up, hopefully the LLC will still be there.