so was Ivan really a Cat 3? at landfall

[SouthernWx]

Ivan's winds were officially lowered in the best track to 120 mph.

Yes my friend....but that doesn't mean it is correct. NHC had Andrew officially listed as 145 mph on the best track, and they were waaay off the beam.

While I don't believe Ivan was 130 mph or stronger at landfall....I do firmly believe intensity was in the 125 mph range.....

Here's a passage from the NHC Ivan preliminary report:


Within the outer eyewall existed several 1-2 n mi2 patches of 120-122 kt inbound Doppler velocities (some individual gates contained 123.4 kt velocities) at around 6,000 ft ASL. Using 122 kt as being representative of a smoothed peak and applying a reduction factor of 0.85 (standard reconnaissance flight-level reduction for 6000 ft) yields a surface estimate of 104 kt. In addition to the Doppler radar velocity data, a 700 mb flight-level wind of 120-kt was observed just south of Gulf Shores, AL at 0724 UTC 16 September (Figure 2c) in the same general area where the aforementioned maximum Doppler radar velocities were observed. The 120-kt flight-level wind converts to approximately a 108-kt surface wind using the standard 0.90 reduction factor from the 700 mb-level. A blend of those two equivalent surface wind values yields an intensity of 105 kt Ivan's first U.S. landfall. This intensity estimate is also consistent with the 99-kt SFMR surface wind data that was collected by a NOAA WP-3 aircraft more than 6 h before landfall.



I was wrong...the final NOAA SFMR surface wind report was over SIX hours before landfall...IMO making it even LESS reliable.

Let's face it....Derek has his professional opinion of 115 mph at landfall. Stacy Stewart has his professional opinion of 120 mph at the same time. I have my professional opinion that intensity was around 125 mph at landfall. They aren't about to change their mind or revise their analysis...and hell will freeze over in block ice a yard wide before I change mine.

I respect both Derek's and Stacy's analysis....but believe mine also deserves the same respect. For over nine long years I was scoffed at by Atlanta area meteorologists for believing Andrew was a category 5 hurricane at Florida impact.....and in the end it turns out I was right (and NHC's cat-4 estimate wrong).

PW

[Jim Cantore]

Some say 130 others say 120

lets say 125

[Normandy]

You think Andrews winds were ONLY 160 mph? I would beg to differ (More along the lines of 175 ish)....thats just my thoughts though.

NO my friend. That (140 kt) was my INITIAL estimate in late 1992/ 1993 after viewing the damage firsthand, analyzing radar data, and analyzing the pressure/ wind relationship of a 926 mb hurricane (the pressure given as "official" in the preliminary NHC report; later revised to 922 mb). The pressure gradient gave an estimate of 141 kt (162 mph).

In early 1993, I told a couple forecasters at the Atlanta WSFO my theory that Andrew was much more intense than the 120-125 kt estimate of NHC and they scoffed at me. While admittedly my 1992-93 estimate was too low....I was a helluva lot closer to the true intensity than NHC at that time (who claimed Andrew as a cat-4 hurricane until 2002).

I today believe Andrew's true intensity at landfall may have been closer to 155 kts (175-180 mph)....because I strongly suspect winds continued to increase AFTER the last recon pass an hour before landfall measured of 162 kts at 700 mb flight level (IMO flight level winds at landfall were 170 kts.....and surface sustained winds in then north eyewall 150-155 kts).

PW

Agreed.
While most Camille survivors and fanatics wont like what im saying, I think Camille and Andrew were in the same range windwise (Maybe Camille was a bit stronger but not much). Of course Camille was a far more brutal storm due to its 25 foot record storm surge, something Andrew DID NOT have.

I dont know how on earth the NHC figured it wasnt a Cat 5 after the damage was seen....No hurricane had ever done that to any infrastructure and most tornados fail to cause the destruction that Andrew did (minus the F5's). It truly boggles me.

[senorpepr]

Ivan's winds were officially lowered in the best track to 120 mph.

Yes my friend....but that doesn't mean it is correct. NHC had Andrew officially listed as 145 mph on the best track, and they were waaay off the beam.

While I don't believe Ivan was 130 mph or stronger at landfall....I do firmly believe intensity was in the 125 mph range.....

///
PW

You're right, but I'm not saying that the NHC is or is not correct. I was simply telling Hurricane Floyd that although the NHC advisories said 130 mph at landfall, the NHC later reduced that to 120 mph in the best track.

As for the actual intensity, I've seen a good chunk of data over the past few months, but when weighing in the accuracy of the data coupled with the missing data, I'm still a bit unsure. Personally, I've been thinking 120-125 for a while now, but I do feel those professional opinions that you mentioned, including your own, deserve the respect they've earned.

[ericinmia]

To the people looking at the destruction....
You can't compare popcorn to apples! Houses for instance in dade county must withstand winds of cat4 which entails CBR walls, and certain roofing styles. You CANNONT compare this to match stick houses built in the panhandle and alabama. I feel no pitty for someone that builds like that on the ocean. You were asking for it.
-Eric

Friend.....take it from someone who began researching hurricanes, tornadoes, and wind damage before many on this forum were even born. If and when a hurricane of Ivan's landfall intensity slams into the city of Miami and northern Dade county, Florida.....there will be damage beyond imagination.

If you truly believe it will take a cat-4/5 hurricane to devastate Miami/ Fort Lauderdale....you are only fooling yourself. IMHO a hurricane the size and intensity of Ivan at landfall would cause a full scale disaster down there. The damage toll and IMO death toll would be even greater than what we witnessed in the Pensacola area last September.

The city of Miami, Miami Beach, northern Dade county, and Broward county were all very lucky in 1992....lucky again last year. Sooner or later, that good fortune will end...and when it does, those areas will be devastated....will resemble a war zone.

PW

Thank You for explaining that to him...

First of all... I NEVER said that it would not cause damge in the greater miami area. Obviously it would.

Simply put though... Dade county code is the strongest code in the world, thus because of this we would have faired better on a building by building basis. Obviously we are more dense so more destruction would occur.

Also i don't appreciate you all that attempt to degrade and put me down. Especially when not a one of you all know me. My family (great grandfather) wrote the FIRST hurricane building code in the world. It was passed to counties, cities, and countries all around. He was the head building inspector of miami beach durring the 30's+, and has recently been honred (post mortem) by the city of miami, miami beach and dade county as one of the most influencial south floridians. My family has to this day stayed in that same business field. Hence, I beleive I have quite the background necissary to make a judgement on such ideas.

I have family that lives on miami beach on oceanfront property, and i don't believe they should recieve aid. They choose to live on a man made island in the middle of the bay. However, i guarantee you their houses are quite above code.

That is all, this is not meant as a fight. Simply clearing up your misconceoption on my knowledge and history.
-Eric

[Derek Ortt]

I'll have to check the flight again to see when the NOAA place left, exactly. if it was right at landfall, I'd be more inclined to support a 105-110KT intensity than I would if it left 90 minutes before landfall as the pressure was rising at about 3mb/h in that final hour

[Jim Cantore]

sure living on the ocean comes with risks you must accept but they by no means deserve it.

[vbhoutex]

I have a question about a comparison between Camille and Andrew. For the sake of this comparison let's assume that both had the same possible 175-180 mph winds at landfall.

Why was there apparently very little storm surge associated with Andrew and the HUGE storm surge with Camille? Were they that much different in size or was it the profile of the ocean floor or what? One might think that Andrew had time to build a surge as big as Camille's considering his straight run to the coast from out past the Bahamas, so what was the difference?

[wxmann_91]

I have a question about a comparison between Camille and Andrew. For the sake of this comparison let's assume that both had the same possible 175-180 mph winds at landfall.

Why was there apparently very little storm surge associated with Andrew and the HUGE storm surge with Camille? Were they that much different in size or was it the profile of the ocean floor or what? One might think that Andrew had time to build a surge as big as Camille's considering his straight run to the coast from out past the Bahamas, so what was the difference?

Camille had been a major hurricane ever since it was just south of Cuba, while Andrew was a tropical storm for most of its life before undergoing rapid intensification. More importantly, though, Camille was moving at a slower rate, allowing the surge to build up, but Andrew moved more quickly. Size also is important. Camille was larger than Andrew; its surge inflicted damage over a larger area. It's like comparing Ivan and Charley, and the reason why Ivan's surge was devastating, and Charley had little surge.

But hey, I may be wrong. Just a newbie answering here. You'll need to ask a pro met to verify if I'm correct. Ocean floor could have an impact on surge.

[Jim Cantore]

These are opinions

Name/Year Winds at landfall

Andrew 1992 170mph
Camille 1969 200mph
Charley 2004 145mph-155mph (I've toyed with it possibly being another Andrew scnario gusts in Punta Gorda of 173 and several over 160)
Ivan 2004 125mph (With people going with ether 130 or 120 i've changed my opinion to be in the middle)
Jeanne 2004 120mph
Ethel 1960 70mph (Couldn't of been cat 5 no way it weakened that fast)
Isidore 2002 65mph (I've toyed with it being a minimal hurricane seeing an eye forming and hearing a few hurricane forse gusts)
Claudette 2003 95mph (gusts over 100 rapid strengthing before landfall leads to this)
Isabel 2003 105mph (gusts more then the official 100 at landfall and a weakening storm rarely has that)
Floyd 1999 115mph (gust to 140 at wrightsville beach and a few more around 115-120 lead to this)
Opal 1995 (duh the only opal 120mph (nothing gusted over that that I know of)
Frances 2004 100mph (as far as I know no official reports over 100mph)
Dennis 1999 75mph (Or very very close several reports over hurricane forse)
Fran 1996 120mph (damage in that area and gusts the same)


Please dont call me crazy

[Jim Cantore]

Ivan may have been a cat 3 but the combo of wind and a surge 10 times worse then Opal made it look like strong cat 4/cat 5 damage

[Derek Ortt]

Andrew produced a 16.9 ft storm surge, one of the highest eevr produced in the USA. That is not well known because the worst of the surge did not hit the center of Miami (though Coconut Grove had about 10, with significant damage

[Jim Cantore]

Of course the highest surge title goes to Camille which I think was 33 feet

[Derek Ortt]

Camielle was about 24 feet.

Ivan was about 15 feet, significantly lower than Andrew's. Ivan's surge hit a populated area

[Astro_man92]

I thought Ivan was a cat 4 at landfall??!?!?!??

[wxmann_91]

I read that Camille's surge at Pass Christian, Mississippi was about 26.5 ft.

Interesting how Andrew produced a 16.9 ft surge. I saw somewhere that said Andrew's surge was only about 9-10 ft. Guess they were WAY off.

[Astro_man92]

Camielle was about 24 feet.

Ivan was about 15 feet, significantly lower than Andrew's. Ivan's surge hit a populated area

I heard the reason why andrews was ONLY 19 feet (or was it the waves)was because it was in deep water. just imagin if it was in shallow water

i'd say possiblt 28 feet easy

[Normandy]

If Camille's surge was due to its incredible size (And with the wind readings ive heard from it it seems as if it was massive) than that in my opinion there is no way it was a 200 mph cane with a 909 pressure at landfall....none of the large hurricanes have ever peaked at 200 mph, and the ones that came close were all sub 900 (Gilbert, Allen, Typhoon Tip, Etc).

[jax]

If Camille's surge was due to its incredible size (And with the wind readings ive heard from it it seems as if it was massive) than that in my opinion there is no way it was a 200 mph cane with a 909 pressure at landfall....none of the large hurricanes have ever peaked at 200 mph, and the ones that came close were all sub 900 (Gilbert, Allen, Typhoon Tip, Etc).

Camille was if fact a very small compact storm...

[Normandy]

If Camille's surge was due to its incredible size (And with the wind readings ive heard from it it seems as if it was massive) than that in my opinion there is no way it was a 200 mph cane with a 909 pressure at landfall....none of the large hurricanes have ever peaked at 200 mph, and the ones that came close were all sub 900 (Gilbert, Allen, Typhoon Tip, Etc).

Camille was if fact a very small compact storm...

If thats the case, then people who live 50 to 60 miles from the center reporting 100 mph winds are mistaken.