Official 93L Invest thread=93L is not anymore at NRL

[Brent]

Northward shift continues

[rockyman]

A little cluster of thunderstorms have developed now near the "presumed" center. Watch them grow overnight.

Yep...let's see what happens over the next few hours:

[Ivanhater]

the cloud pattern looks darn good

[gkrangers]

I wish we had visible...

[boca]

What site did you get the pic off of that's great.

[Ivanhater]

I wish we had visible...

aint that the truth

[rockyman]

What site did you get the pic off of that's great.

Just the good ole GOES site:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree, why the shift in the models? Yesterday at this time, this looked like a Mexico storm for sure(if it develops), but not anymore. Hmm, wonder why the drastic move up North?

[skysummit]

Well, we can prepare for many more shifts in the models to come.

[ConvergenceZone]

I also noticed that the GDFL model only goes out a little ways on the map. When you see that, does that mean that the model dissipates it?


They just showed it on the tropical update. It hardly looks like anything is left of it. The weather channel said no concern for development.

[clfenwi]

I also noticed that the GDFL model only goes out a little ways on the map. When you see that, does that mean that the model dissipates it?


They just showed it on the tropical update. It hardly looks like anything is left of it. The weather channel said no concern for development.

To answer the question, yes it dissipates it:

767
WHXX04 KWBC 312321
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUL 31

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.0 61.5 280./18.0
6 12.2 62.6 280./10.7
12 12.8 64.6 286./19.6
18 13.3 67.3 281./27.3
24 14.1 68.6 300./14.7

STORM DISSIPATED AT 24 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[skysummit]

I also noticed that the GDFL model only goes out a little ways on the map. When you see that, does that mean that the model dissipates it?


They just showed it on the tropical update. It hardly looks like anything is left of it. The weather channel said no concern for development.

There's where you went wrong. I wouldn't trust TWC if my life depended on it.

[Ivanhater]

I also noticed that the GDFL model only goes out a little ways on the map. When you see that, does that mean that the model dissipates it?


They just showed it on the tropical update. It hardly looks like anything is left of it. The weather channel said no concern for development.

There's where you went wrong. I wouldn't trust TWC if my life depended on it.

dont listen to anyone from the weather channel about the tropics unless its steve lyons, most of them are just tv personalities

[deltadog03]

yeah, i know....i was playin...but, yall have been hit very hard....heck who knows...

lol, no offense but if they were to go in the gulf i hope they keep going to texas, nothing big, im sure yall wouldnt mind taking a few off floridas hands, help your fellow gommers out

to be honest i would love to have a tropical system our way....we need the rain very badly....i wish no harm on anyone, its just the truth we need rain...

[wxmann_91]

They just showed it on the tropical update. It hardly looks like anything is left of it. The weather channel said no concern for development.

Don't trust TWC. Last year, as the tropical wave that eventually became Charley neared the Lesser Antilles, TWC said something along the lines that the wave wasn't at the right time or something and that because of that, it had little chance of development. An day later a special tropical disturbance statement was issued for the pre-Charley wave, and I think a few hours after that it was classified as a TD.

[Ivanhater]

yeah, i know....i was playin...but, yall have been hit very hard....heck who knows...

lol, no offense but if they were to go in the gulf i hope they keep going to texas, nothing big, im sure yall wouldnt mind taking a few off floridas hands, help your fellow gommers out

to be honest i would love to have a tropical system our way....we need the rain very badly....i wish no harm on anyone, its just the truth we need rain...

its weird how yall have have a huge deficit and we got a huge surplus, mainly from those april floods....i hope yall get rain soon...its just becoming ridiculous

[deltadog03]

yeah, i know....i was playin...but, yall have been hit very hard....heck who knows...

lol, no offense but if they were to go in the gulf i hope they keep going to texas, nothing big, im sure yall wouldnt mind taking a few off floridas hands, help your fellow gommers out

to be honest i would love to have a tropical system our way....we need the rain very badly....i wish no harm on anyone, its just the truth we need rain...

its weird how yall have have a huge deficit and we got a huge surplus, mainly from those april floods....i hope yall get rain soon...its just becoming ridiculous

Thanks...We will see...FWD keeps mentioning a weak cold front sometime late week...

[elysium]

93L just caught. We're past the first phase. Now, since 92L totally collapsed recently at this same jucture, not too far from where 93L is right now, it's tough to make too many assumptions. Conditions look a little better though. Not crazy about them. It looks pretty trecherous not too far to the west of 93L. If that can clear out of there, we have an open door this thursday through saturday for entry into the Florida Straits/ GOM. The models will be shifting right. The big question is whether or not 93L can get organized within the next 48 hrs. I think it can.

[clfenwi]

So... anyone buying the idea that the convection flare-up is the northern boundary of an llc (putting the 'center' at say 12.6 N 65W) ?

[gkrangers]

If there is a LLC, its probably south of those thunderstorms. Just too hard to tell without the visible shots.