Invest 96E at EPAC

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cycloneye
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Invest 96E at EPAC

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 31, 2005 5:26 pm

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EPAC is turning more favorable now that the wet phase of MJO is already at that basin.
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#2 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Jul 31, 2005 5:34 pm

good point! I noticed that on your previous map which outlined the dry air. I think this is proof that you know what you are talking about, as the pacific has been pretty dead the last couple of weeks. Looks like it's about ready to get active again.
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 31, 2005 6:40 pm

ABPZ20 KNHC 312300
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM PDT SUN JUL 31 2005

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 31, 2005 8:11 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (EP962005) ON 20050801 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050801 0000 050801 1200 050802 0000 050802 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.0N 105.0W 10.7N 106.8W 11.4N 108.4W 12.3N 110.1W
BAMM 10.0N 105.0W 10.9N 107.1W 11.6N 108.9W 12.4N 110.8W
LBAR 10.0N 105.0W 10.4N 107.0W 11.2N 109.1W 12.2N 111.3W
SHIP 20KTS 28KTS 36KTS 42KTS
DSHP 20KTS 28KTS 36KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050803 0000 050804 0000 050805 0000 050806 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.3N 111.8W 15.7N 115.4W 18.7N 119.6W 21.6N 123.2W
BAMM 13.4N 112.8W 15.5N 116.6W 17.7N 120.2W 19.8N 123.6W
LBAR 13.5N 113.5W 17.2N 117.5W 21.9N 120.3W 25.3N 122.0W
SHIP 47KTS 51KTS 46KTS 37KTS
DSHP 47KTS 51KTS 46KTS 37KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 105.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 9.7N LONM12 = 103.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 9.5N LONM24 = 101.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 130NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 31, 2005 10:51 pm

Image

Another common EPAC system!
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#6 Postby EDR1222 » Sun Jul 31, 2005 11:18 pm

It definately looks more promising in the EPAC now then it has for a while. Looks like it is their turn to get in on the action.
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#7 Postby Aquawind » Mon Aug 01, 2005 6:55 am

Nice signature on the old Qscat...

Image

Paul
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#8 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 01, 2005 1:58 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (EP962005) ON 20050801 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050801 1800 050802 0600 050802 1800 050803 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.9N 109.0W 11.8N 110.9W 12.7N 112.4W 13.8N 113.8W
BAMM 10.9N 109.0W 11.7N 111.1W 12.6N 113.0W 13.5N 114.8W
LBAR 10.9N 109.0W 11.7N 110.9W 12.8N 112.8W 14.1N 114.7W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050803 1800 050804 1800 050805 1800 050806 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.9N 115.0W 18.0N 117.8W 21.3N 120.3W 24.0N 121.7W
BAMM 14.5N 116.4W 16.9N 119.4W 19.4N 122.5W 21.5N 125.1W
LBAR 15.5N 116.6W 19.0N 119.6W 22.6N 122.1W 24.9N 123.7W
SHIP 48KTS 52KTS 45KTS 29KTS
DSHP 48KTS 52KTS 45KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.9N LONCUR = 109.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 10.3N LONM12 = 107.1W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 9.8N LONM24 = 104.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 130NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

The 18:00z run for 96E.
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