Official 93L Invest thread=93L is not anymore at NRL

#121 Postby **deltadog03** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 5:03 pm

one question....why do we all have to basically rip on the guy...he is there we are here....i think this has an excellent chance to develop.....if he is bullish who cares, if not, then well hey....lets just concentrate on the system plz......will all do respect...

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #122 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 5:05 pm

Looks at the shape of the system. Now if the convection starts forming near the center of that mass it should develop. I remember Charley starting out looking like this.

Thunder44 · #123 Postby **Thunder44** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 5:05 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I am not sure at all what Stewart is seeing in terms of increased organization. The bullish TWO doesn't surprise me in the least, however as his nature is to be bullish

I disagree. It looks like outflow is established on all quadrants, except maybe the south side. Convection is limited as he said, (maybe dirunal?) And there is now at least a broad surface circulation with falling pressures, support by surface obs. But I'm not pro, so what do I know?

#124 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 5:05 pm

if he says it has a chance of developing, then it does....anyway the models sure have shifted north...not good, but we shall see

TS Zack · #125 Postby **TS Zack** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 5:06 pm

Derek, what do you see that is inhibiting this system from developing?

I don't think it is a bright idea to go against the lead NHC forecaster.

Anonymous · #126 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 5:11 pm

Shear in the Central Caribbean has decreased rather dramatically:::

YESTERDAY:::

TODAY:::

Opal storm · #127 Postby **Opal storm** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 5:39 pm

The models have been pointing closer and closer to the Gulf.Not good.

Derek Ortt · #128 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 5:42 pm

the lead NHC forecaster? I'm sorry, but that is 100% from the truth. Mayfield has even stated many times that the one he trusts the most is Avila. I believe that Avila is the lead forecaster, if there is one there.

What has been causing this not to develop so far, despite the favorable UL winds, is what I have been stating for about 24 hours after viewing yesterday's QS pass, the low-level easterly wind surge on the eading edge of the SAL. It's what kept Helene from developing despite very favorable UL winds back in 2000, until it moved into the GOM.

Derek Ortt · #129 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 5:48 pm

also,

wasn't trying to drag stewart down. Just pointing out that he's the most aggressive of the forecasters. Franklin seems to be the most conservative, with the others in the middle

Thunder44 · #130 Postby **Thunder44** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 5:48 pm

This is a list of who works there and there titles. They are both under "Hurricane Specialists". Nothing about a "lead forecaster" there. Stewart seems to have another title though.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutstaff.shtml

National Hurricane Center
Hurricane Specialists
Dr. Lixion Avila
Dr. Jack Beven
James L. Franklin
Dr. Richard Knabb
Dr. Richard Pasch
Stacy Stewart -- Warning Coordination Meteorologist (WCM)

wxmann_91 · #131 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 5:53 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:the lead NHC forecaster? I'm sorry, but that is 100% from the truth. Mayfield has even stated many times that the one he trusts the most is Avila. I believe that Avila is the lead forecaster, if there is one there.

Though this could've been the truth in the past, this year has been quite different. He's written less advisories and TWO's. And do you not remember this discussion on Emily?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al052005.discus.019.shtml?

Instead of a borderline major hurricane, it became a borderline Cat 5. :eek:

IMO I wouldn't trust any one forecaster more than the others. They're all paid to do their jobs, and so, though mistakes are made once in a while, I trust them all equally.

Anonymous · #132 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 6:00 pm

Stacy Stewart is da bomb! 8-)

#133 Postby **Lowpressure** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 6:02 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:Stacy Stewart is da bomb!

Mike, like the shirt. I like your photo proof supporting your claims.

Derek Ortt · #134 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 6:04 pm

All od the data at the time indicated a marginal 3 at landfall on the Yucatan. Avila's forecast was quite similar to the nwhhc forecasts as well.

I've noticed that Avila usually doesn't do many of the TWO's, but more of the active storm products

Thunder44 · #135 Postby **Thunder44** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 6:05 pm

I remember Avila being a GFS model lover. Something about it being "an excellent model" last year?

#136 Postby **deltadog03** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 6:06 pm

ok, lets not argue about this.....its silly....some mets are conservative and some or not....lets just keep moving along...this system looks really good to me...i see this developing....

Anonymous · #137 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 6:06 pm

I always called for a Cat 4 in the NW Caribbean...never backed away from that.

Tropical Storm Emily
Unofficial Forecast # 2-Mike Naso
Tuesday July 12, 2005 5pm Eastern
USE NHC FOR OFFICIAL INFO

The reasoning behind this rather liberal forecast is due to the fact of Dennis bombing from a
Category One to a Category 4 in less than 24 hours last week, due to a very favorable upper level pattern.
With Emily having such a favorable upper level pattern, I would not be surprise to see such rapid increases
in intensity along the track through the Caribbean Sea. Should a landfall in Jamaica should not effect this
intensity forecast much, since Emily would move across the island in due time.

12 Hours: 11.9 N/ 55.1 W - 60 kt
24 Hours: 12.8 N/ 58.1 W - 70 kt
36 Hours: 13.5 N/ 61.2 W - 85 kt
48 Hours: 14.3 N/ 65.1 W - 95 kt
72 Hours: 15.7 N/ 71.1 W - 105 kt
96 Hours: 17.7 N/ 77.3 W - 115 kt
120 Hours: 20.1 N/ 83.0 W -115 kt

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #138 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 6:07 pm

I would like to see convection start poping near the center. Before I can call development.

#139 Postby **deltadog03** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 6:07 pm

and the carribean is becoming VERY favorable for development...those maps prove it and the discussion earlier confirms that a ridge is building....

#140 Postby **Lowpressure** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 6:08 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:I always called for a Cat 4 in the NW Caribbean...never backed away from that.

Tropical Storm Emily
Unofficial Forecast # 2-Mike Naso
Tuesday July 12, 2005 5pm Eastern
USE NHC FOR OFFICIAL INFO

The reasoning behind this rather liberal forecast is due to the fact of Dennis bombing from a
Category One to a Category 4 in less than 24 hours last week, due to a very favorable upper level pattern.
With Emily having such a favorable upper level pattern, I would not be surprise to see such rapid increases
in intensity along the track through the Caribbean Sea. Should a landfall in Jamaica should not effect this
intensity forecast much, since Emily would move across the island in due time.

12 Hours: 11.9 N/ 55.1 W - 60 kt
24 Hours: 12.8 N/ 58.1 W - 70 kt
36 Hours: 13.5 N/ 61.2 W - 85 kt
48 Hours: 14.3 N/ 65.1 W - 95 kt
72 Hours: 15.7 N/ 71.1 W - 105 kt
96 Hours: 17.7 N/ 77.3 W - 115 kt
120 Hours: 20.1 N/ 83.0 W -115 kt

Mike clearly called for cat 4 in NW Carib, I am backing that call 100%.

Official 93L Invest thread=93L is not anymore at NRL

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