Official 93L Invest thread=93L is not anymore at NRL

[Astro_man92]

that is a crude weather map the clouds are drawn in

[clfenwi]

that is a crude weather map the clouds are drawn in

Oh, I thought those were puffs of smoke from the sea dragon...phew (j/k)

[cycloneye]

Thanks dixie.

[clfenwi]

17Z obs

Grenada
TGPY 311700Z 27007KT 9999 -RA SCT014 SCT038 BKN260 26/24 Q1013


Altimeter dropped a millibar ... special advisory!

Tobago

St Vincent

TVSV 311700Z 08010KT 9999 -TSRA BKN010 SCT012CB BKN03227/25 Q1014, CB ALL QUADS=

St Lucia

TLPL 311700Z 08023KT 8000 TSRA FEW009 BKN015CB BKN080 25/22 Q1014=

Martinique

TFFF 311700Z 08006KT 050V130 9000 -RA SCT013 SCT020 OVC100 26/24Q1015 TEMPO
5000 SHRA=

METAR... not as good as recon but when you have a nasty fever it helps...

Since it was mentioned below, here's the last few hours from Barbados

TBPB 311100Z 09003KT 9999 FEW012CB SCT035 BKN100 27/25 Q1013 RERA/DIST CB NW/N AND W=

TBPB 311200Z 12010KT 9999 SCT012CB SCT035 28/25 Q1014 RMK CBE TRU S,JP-S=

TBPB 311300Z 11009KT 5000 -SHRA SCT010CB SCT014 27/25 Q1014 RMK CB E-SE=

TBPB 311330Z 11014KT 1500 SHRA SCT010CB BKN012 27/24 Q1014 RMK CB E-S=

TBPB 311400Z 10015KT 9999 FEW010CB SCT035 BKN100 26/25 Q1014 RMK CB SE,SW=

TBPB 311500Z 03004KT 9999 SCT010CB SCT035 BKN100 25/24 Q1014=

TBPB 311600Z 36005KT 9999 -RA SCT010CB SCT035 BKN100 25/24 Q1014=

TBPB 311610Z 35007KT -TSRA SCT010CB SCT035 BKN100 25/24 Q1014 RMK CB ALL QUADS=

TBPB 311637Z 03005KT 9999 -RA SCT010CB SCT035 BKN100 26/24 Q1014=

TBPB 311700Z 02005KT 9999 SCT010CB SCT035 BKN100 26/24 Q1014=

[Thunder44]

The only thing inconsistent with this is that Barbados is reporting a NNE for that last few hours. You would expect more of an east to SE wind out there now, if there was a closed surface circulation center to the WSW.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It could be slightly enlongated. It looks that way on satellite. But is is getting more oreganized by the frame.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

You can see a cirualtion. It is elongated from southwest to northeast. http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[stormchazer]

that is a crude weather map the clouds are drawn in

Straight from the NHC...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/CAR_00Z.gif

Its their crude map. I guess they are not a good source.

[drezee]

[Thunder44]

000
WHXX01 KWBC 312025
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20050731 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050731 1800 050801 0600 050801 1800 050802 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.5N 61.5W 13.1N 64.4W 14.0N 67.1W 15.1N 69.7W
BAMM 12.5N 61.5W 13.0N 64.4W 13.9N 67.1W 14.8N 69.5W
A98E 12.5N 61.5W 13.1N 65.0W 13.6N 68.2W 14.3N 71.1W
LBAR 12.5N 61.5W 13.1N 64.8W 14.0N 68.1W 15.0N 71.3W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 40KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 40KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050802 1800 050803 1800 050804 1800 050805 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.0N 72.0W 17.5N 76.3W 19.0N 79.9W 20.3N 83.0W
BAMM 15.6N 71.9W 16.6N 76.8W 17.6N 81.6W 18.2N 86.5W
A98E 14.8N 73.7W 16.6N 78.0W 18.3N 81.9W 19.9N 85.6W
LBAR 15.8N 74.2W 17.2N 79.1W 19.9N 82.3W 23.0N 84.2W
SHIP 58KTS 72KTS 81KTS 85KTS
DSHP 58KTS 72KTS 81KTS 85KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 61.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 57.9W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 54.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[clfenwi]

If it were to close off it would have an easy time of it, but as we've seen that is a big if...

[clfenwi]

18-20Z surface obs

Barbados

TBPB 311800Z 03008KT 9999 FEW010CB BKN100 27/25 Q1013=
TBPB 311900Z 04010KT 9999 FEW010CB BKN100 27/25 Q1012=
TBPB 312000Z 04009KT 9999 FEW010CB SCT100 BKN300 28/25Q1011=

Tobago

TTCP 311800Z 32005KT 8000 VCSH FEW010CB SCT012 BKN035 28/24 Q1013 TEMPO TSRA=
TTCP 311900Z 03004KT 5000 VCSH FEW008CB SCT012 SCT035 28/23 Q1013 TEMPO SHRA=
TTCP 312000Z 00000KT 9999 SCT012 SCT035 BKN100 26/24 Q1012 NSW=

Grenada

TBPB 311800Z 03008KT 9999 FEW010CB BKN100 27/25 Q1013=
TBPB 311900Z 04010KT 9999 FEW010CB BKN100 27/25 Q1012=
TBPB 312000Z 04009KT 9999 FEW010CB SCT100 BKN300 28/25Q1011=

St Vincent

TVSV 311900Z 0910KT 99 -RA FEW008 SCT032 OVC070 25/23 Q1011=
TVSV 312000Z 08010KT 9999 BKN010 SCT032 OVC070 26/24 Q1011=

St Lucia

TLPL 311800Z 04011KT 9999 -RA FEW009 SCT015CB OVC080 25/24 Q1013=
TLPL 311900Z 08016KT 9999 -RA FEW015CB SCT017 BKN080 25/23 Q1011=

Martinique

TFFF 311800Z 11003KT 9999 FEW013CB SCT020 BKN090 27/24 Q1013 TEMPO 40 0 0 TSRA=
TFFF 311900Z 09005KT 070V140 9999 FEW020 BKN100 27/24 Q1012 TEMPO5000 SHRA=

[elysium]

While the season has slowed down a little; I think that this is now the second or possibly third straight day we have had now without a named storm to track; 93L and a strong wave exiting the african coast, along with a strong wave getting ready to roll off the african coast, promises to quicken the tropical pace somewhat over the next 5 to 10 days. It is not clear whether we will see the heavier type activity that we had throughout the first half of july, however if 93L can make it into the GOM, there would be ample opportunity for it to develop further.

The high pressure ridge is forecast to retreat and this would allow for GOM entry sometime late next week with the outside possibility of additional tropical activity approaching the windward islands in this same time slot. Depending on how far back the ridge pulls over the next several days, Florida may have to keep a close eye on 93L. Haven't done my homework on 93l yet so estimates on intensity would be little more than guesses at this point in time. The GOM sst's aren't unsupportive for continued development and 93L may get interesting next week.

[WeatherEmperor]

Its way too far out to make any prediction on where this thing is going. It hasnt even been declared a TD yet.

<RICKY>

[Thunder44]

ABNT20 KNHC 312115
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA...IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES.
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE SLOWLY FALLING AND THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...EVEN THOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS CURRENTLY LIMITED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH IN
SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH.

[Hurricanehink]

Looks like it has potential.

[deltadog03]

oh boy, 18z models are further north...maybe the ridge will be drifting Eastward...anyone know where the Western edge of the ridge MIGHT be?

[Derecho]

Not sure if the actual sfc center is as far west as NHC had it for the 18Z run; I think they're using the mid-level center.

There is indeed a weak surface circ (the rapid motion west means the west winds to the S of the center are quite light) but I think it's lagging behind the mid-level center (which has that blob of convection.); something that's common with these fast-moving waves. Fast motion per se has absolutely nothing to do with something not developing - what happens is you have easterly surface winds and faster easterly winds at mid-level, so there's a TAD of easterly shear meaning the sfc and mid-level centers are a bit misaligned.

Overall the upper level winds seem great for development, and looks like they will remain so for at least a couple of days. Was a bit befuddled at the over-confident assurances of some that it would be badly sheared in the Carribean.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

100 percent agree Derecho. The LLC is broad an appears to be a little enlongated from southwest to northeast. Over all tih stands a chance at develping.

[Derek Ortt]

I am not sure at all what Stewart is seeing in terms of increased organization. The bullish TWO doesn't surprise me in the least, however as his nature is to be bullish