Space Weather/Tropical Development Ahead

[Jim Hughes]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should NOT be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological dat. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2K.org. For official information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Some of you may have been readings some of the recent posts by both Steve and myself in reference to some increased solar activity overnight. I believe these events, and some other important space weather variables, that I have been talking about all week, should have a conducive effect upon tropical development during the next 24 hours or so.

A nice eruption off of the eastern limb can be seen in LASCO C3 images. This image at 30/0753 is an example.

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/rea ... 753_c3.gif

The LASCO images , and the time of the X1.3/2B flare lead me to believe that we should see a tropical depression develop by 7/31/21z

I currently have been unable to pinpoint developmental locations but I am looking into things like magnetic field vectors and the timing of the eruptional events. Of course the logical areas to watch would be any areas with strong waves - convection present.

[Steve H.]

Uhhhh, I don't mean to be disrespectful or anything, but maybe you can share some of what you're smoking?? First of all, what basin are you talking about when you say a TD by 21z tomorrow?? There is a fair chance that a TD may develop in the Atlantic tomorrow even before you announced your prophesy. If there is a correlation between solar activity and tropical activity, its effects would more than likely be out of phase with the flare. The idea that a TD will develop somewhere in 24 hours during the last week of July is like saying it may be below 32 degrees somewhere on earth between 35 and 40 degrees north in January. Let me know when the next alien grab is scheduled....cheers!!

[Aslkahuna]

He specifically means the ATL Basin. Never heard of a Tropical system developing between 35 and 40N in January perhaps you were referring to low WPAC latitudes or perhaps the Southern Hemisphere?

Steve

[Jim Hughes]

Uhhhh, I don't mean to be disrespectful or anything, but maybe you can share some of what you're smoking?? First of all, what basin are you talking about when you say a TD by 21z tomorrow?? There is a fair chance that a TD may develop in the Atlantic tomorrow even before you announced your prophesy. If there is a correlation between solar activity and tropical activity, its effects would more than likely be out of phase with the flare. The idea that a TD will develop somewhere in 24 hours during the last week of July is like saying it may be below 32 degrees somewhere on earth between 35 and 40 degrees north in January. Let me know when the next alien grab is scheduled....cheers!!

First question ..Atlantic...second....Yes I forecasted development for tomorrow, in tonights post , but this time frame, or there about, was actually given more than ten days ago in the TWC forum and also in this forum about five days ago in another topic thread.

Tampa Bay Hurricane Post 7/22 "When it could get busy : Tentative timeline for waves "

So I was actually forecasting _What has just OCCURRED_ ...space weather wise.....a long time ago....and my outlook for enhancement for 7/27/21z.... put out about seven days earlier..... occurred when Franklin finally strengthened .....after days of doldrum..

Could I be wrong about tomorrow? Of course just like the conventional methodology is wrong some times....but if you have followed my posts and you understand space weather...then I am actually just making a forecast off of what type of space weather events have occurred.

It would be hypocritical of me not to. I believe when I say this, that most people/models, feel that a depression will not form within the next 17 hours. The upper level environment of most areas is not favorable for this. So my forecast is actually going against the grain somewhat.

Do you think one is going to form ? If so please jump on board with me. I would like for someone else to be wrong with me if you think one is going to form. Are you in?


Look here's the bottom line...and my last comments to you on this in this context. Your point ... like many others over the years .... are that todays known relationships with tropical enhancement or any other weather related events are pretty much a proven science...... and my response would be that Yes they are... but that just says that we comprehend one simple relationship but we still lack the know how of another...more complexed one . Read the Baranyi paper.....than come back and talk about those variables and what they could mean to tropical enhancement and development.

[tropical]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should NOT be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological dat. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2K.org. For official information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Sorry, I know it's board policy, but I found that part hilarious!

Read the Baranyi paper...

Baranyi? Is that the same Baranyi with the hurricane-guiding laser?

[Aslkahuna]

One thing I would like to point out. From observations, we know that big thunderstorms in the Tropics and over the Plains fire off electrical discharges into the Ionosphere. These observations offer an explanation as to why we see so much Summertime Nocturnal Sporadic E (Patchy Layers in the E Layer of the Ionosphere which affect long haul HF com and transionospheric signal propagation) in the wake of strong squallines and MCC's and MCS's in the Central US. Sporadic E also occurs in conjunction with Meteor Showers and Auroral activity. But the point is, if thunderstorms can affect a layer of the Ionosphere that's based at 85 km up, is it possible for something up there to affect things down here. Just something to think about.

Steve

[drezee]

I was hoping this stuff would not make it here from the Weather Channel Board. The TWC board is down so it was bound to happen....

[Jim Hughes]

One thing I would like to point out. From observations, we know that big thunderstorms in the Tropics and over the Plains fire off electrical discharges into the Ionosphere. These observations offer an explanation as to why we see so much Summertime Nocturnal Sporadic E (Patchy Layers in the E Layer of the Ionosphere which affect long haul HF com and transionospheric signal propagation) in the wake of strong squallines and MCC's and MCS's in the Central US. Sporadic E also occurs in conjunction with Meteor Showers and Auroral activity. But the point is, if thunderstorms can affect a layer of the Ionosphere that's based at 85 km up, is it possible for something up there to affect things down here. Just something to think about.

Steve

Hey do not worry about me being swayed or shaken up from any forum members posts. Even if my outlook for tropical development does not pan out ...Been doing this to long ..and thick skinned....My reply would be go do your homework around the Washington DC area and find out about all of my accuarate forecasts over the last decade ...call OCM's look at newspapers...Call radio stations etc...The joke would be on them not me.

[Steve H.]

Pretty condescending attitude Jim. And may I ask what is the value added here, or for humanity? Think you got too much time on yer hands there buddy.

[vbhoutex]

Whether we think Jim's views are bunk or reality they are his opinions/work and he is due his say here or elsewhere. Let's get away from the personal opionions about him and discuss the theories only please. As with anything on this site the same rules always apply with everyone. If you don't like what he says there is plenty of other information/posts on the site for your perusal.

[Jim Hughes]

Pretty condescending attitude Jim. And may I ask what is the value added here, or for humanity? Think you got too much time on yer hands there buddy.

Actually Steve I did not mean it that way and if it came across that way I am sorry.... I do not care to be around condescending people.... Actually I do not have much time on my hands and that is why I do not like to get into exchanges over the possible feedbacks etc...When people make certain jokes or comments about this being sci-fi it actually just shows me that they probably have never read into the subject matter.

And this is to be expected in a weather/climate forum for the most part.
So I am going to post a few URL's to some published papers later today. A couple of these papers have less complicated space weather details and they deal with things like atmospheric -oceanic teleconnections. Maybe this would be more to everyones liking and then it may lead people to think about what other kind of an effect space weather may be having.


Jim

[Javlin]

I actually think it's kind of interesting myself.Does it pan out I don't know.It is always interesting to see new work going on it's the expansion of the mind and the universe.To me just not so many years ago predictions to the number of canes in a season w/any accurracy was unheard of.Now we are to some degree with the bonus org. looking into landfalls.And it all started w/Gray's recognition of patterns.Now if I am not mistaken I thought there seems to be a cycle to the solar flares also hence did they not have an effect on the Dust Bowl possibily?Just thoughts.

[x-y-no]

OK, I've been keeping my nose out of this whole topic, but if this is going to go on than I'd like the proponents to answer some questions:

1) Given that the average solar radiation delivered to the Earth (normalized as a disk) is 1367 watts per square meter (of which approximately 1000 watts reaches the surface as direct radiation and a variable additional amount as diffuse radiation,) whilst the definition of an X-class flare (the most severe classification) is that it delivers on the order of 10^-4 watts per square meter of X-ray radiation to the Earth, what is the mechanism by which a flux variation seven orders of magnitude smaller than the average energy flux is supposed to influence the enormous energies involved in tropical cyclogenesis?

2) Given that the majority of energy from a flare is diverted poleward by the Earth's magnetic field, why does the above mechanism (assuming you have supplied one) not result in far more dramatic effects on polar vortices than on tropical ones?

Tht'll do for a start.

Jan

[Aslkahuna]

In terms of X-ray Flux, the difference between background and X-class flares is about 4 orders or magnitude of more. Though low in terms of energy in comparison to the total Solar Constant, X-class Flares can have a very pronounced effect over the entire sunlit hemisphere of Earth when they occur. The CMEs from large flares affect the ENTIRE Magnetosphere when they impact though the visual impact is more notable in the higher latitudes. You have to understand that before you can know how the rapid random variations of the entire Geomagnetic field can pump energy into the upper atmosphere.

Steve

[wxwatcher91]

all this would be very interesting to read up on... I will when I have time... I can't say I've ever even looked into anything beyond the Tropopause... well I'm not ruling anything out and, Jim, don't be discouraged by anything anybody writes against your studies, forecasts, etc... everything is contraversial when it comes to weather... very few things are written in stone

[Thunder44]

No TD formed today in the Atlantic as you space weather people predicted in your first post on this thread. So what's the explaination for that?

[x-y-no]

In terms of X-ray Flux, the difference between background and X-class flares is about 4 orders or magnitude of more. Though low in terms of energy in comparison to the total Solar Constant, X-class Flares can have a very pronounced effect over the entire sunlit hemisphere of Earth when they occur. The CMEs from large flares affect the ENTIRE Magnetosphere when they impact though the visual impact is more notable in the higher latitudes. You have to understand that before you can know how the rapid random variations of the entire Geomagnetic field can pump energy into the upper atmosphere.

Steve

That's all very fine, but I was adressing the total energy flux, not just the X-ray flux. X-rays account for only a tiny portion of the sun's energy output, as I pointed out.

Yes, large flares have impact on the magnetosphere and on the ionization level of the upper atmosphere, but not the troposphere to any meaningful degree, and at energy levels many orders of magnitude lower than the total solar input.

I don't see that you've even begun to address either of my questions.

Jan

[Jim Hughes]

OK, I've been keeping my nose out of this whole topic, but if this is going to go on than I'd like the proponents to answer some questions:

1) Given that the average solar radiation delivered to the Earth (normalized as a disk) is 1367 watts per square meter (of which approximately 1000 watts reaches the surface as direct radiation and a variable additional amount as diffuse radiation,) whilst the definition of an X-class flare (the most severe classification) is that it delivers on the order of 10^-4 watts per square meter of X-ray radiation to the Earth, what is the mechanism by which a flux variation seven orders of magnitude smaller than the average energy flux is supposed to influence the enormous energies involved in tropical cyclogenesis?

2) Given that the majority of energy from a flare is diverted poleward by the Earth's magnetic field, why does the above mechanism (assuming you have supplied one) not result in far more dramatic effects on polar vortices than on tropical ones?

Tht'll do for a start.

Jan

Well it looks like you took a look at the Baranyi paper or at least the very beginning. This is a good start at least. Lets not just dwell on the solar radiation effect from X-Flares with tropical storms. When people start talking about watts per square meter,,...etc....we're hashing over old tunnel vision...pre-conceived perceptions of how the sun might be effecting us.

Many changes on the sun occur in tandem with major flaring ..changes in corona etc...the magnitude of this can change dramatically like I mentioned in an earlier post. Plus I have always contended that if the earth's environment is in a continual relationship-feedback with the solar IMF then the tables will already be set for certain weather to occur...dice get loaded... I have seen this time and time again with coronal holes.

As far as polar vortex..many papers written..more with winter though. Once again...probably magnetic field angle...

Space weather effects are in no way limited to just the higher latitudes because of our magnetic field ...check out ring current....DST...

If you read most well written space weather - climate paper now they almost always deal with the solar wind - magnetic field vectors in some way or another. I do not care if it's a day to day or week to week relationship. Some researches , in regards to longer time scale patterns , may be based on whether the solar cycle is parallel or antiparallel. (Odd/Even based on IMF-polarity direction.)

The latter , may deal with decadal GCR changes, and how it might also have an effect upon the earth' electrical circuit...and Forbush decreases also may have an effect .... Some others deal with the possibility of gravity waves eventually propagating downward from the thermosphere thereby effecting atmospheric circulation patterns.

They are all just a hypothesis right now but I do not think that we can just disregard them because of this. All research stages start out like this.

Here are two papers you may want to look at . I know it's tough for anyone to find time to read these things but these are some of the things out there that lend credence to space weather effects.

This first research paper by Boberg & Lundstedt" deals with the solar wind and it's components and it's relationship with the NAO phases...I also have talked about the importance of the solar wind speed.....as well as flux levels. They can be influenced with bz and other changes.

"Solar wind electric field modulation of the NAO: A correlation analysis in the lower atmosphere"

http://sunspot.lund.irf.se/NAO_article2.pdf

I happen to find this one yesterday and it caught my attention immediately. It may be about a different part of the world but I liked what I was reading. I just glanced through it though so I do need to read over it again more thoroughly. The delayed wave patterns that they talk about in relation to geomagnetic activity are some of the ones that I have noticed over the years in both the Washington DC region and Atlantic storms.

You have to remember I have always been looking for an edge when forecasting events way out.....That is what I used to do for the most part in my early forecasting years...I considered anything less than 15-20 days out a short term forecast.

I was talking to Mike Doran and others over in the TWC forum a couple of weeks back about Forbush decreases. (Oulu neutron monitor) and the approximate 10 day lag of tropical formation...I also have noticed a 22-23 day lag in repeatable patterns in the tropics...

Rapid developmental stages seem to be followed 22-23 days later with more tropical development or enhancement. You can see this somewhat this year already. Up until yesterday that is.... Granted this July was very active so of course there was bound to be a lag/increase but I have notice this in other years.

http://www.terrapub.co.jp/journals/EPS/ ... 100959.pdf

[sertorius]

Mike:

I'm going to take a stab and see if I understand what you are saying-I qualify this by saying that this will be, in your eyes, the response of a 5 year old. I readily admit that I do not possess the scientific or mathmatic skills in which to debate this. However, I would like to see if I am on the right track and then I have two questions. Here it goes-be gentle.

Your thesis/hypothesis is that the earth's climate and weather is heavily driven/influenced by electorical discharges and build up. This process is one of the main driving forces of our weather and based on this you can look at electorical build up in the atmosphere and see where storms will form. Again, a five year old's summary, but this does make sense to me. So given i buy your ideas, I also believe that from your posts, you also see this force out of balance due to increased carbon levels. Most of these carbon levels are produced by our mechanized society. Again, I can also buy into that theory. My two questions are these:

1. if this system is out of balance and having a negative affect on the erth's climate/health and that society has provided a big part of thisa imbalance, how do you propose that we put it into balance.

2. how does your theory/hypothesis account for other warm periods in the earth's history-one no less than 600 years ago where by some researchers ideas the earth was 2-4 degrees warmer than now. Can your theory show how the earth put itself into balance then or how the electorical force was affected by the warmer climate.

Again, I can see, on a very low level, how your ideas can work and how they can be out of balance in a warmer earth with more conductive elements. If my summary is totally off base, then i will leave this thread alone becuase I could read all the urls for years and never understand fully. Have a good day.

Jim Hughes:

Great posts-I def. do not have the back ground to enter this debate, but again, like with Mike's, they do make sense to me-I mean the sun is the driving force in many respects to this planet so I could see the influence for sure.

These are great threads-and even if you don't agree with Mike or Jim, they offer great avenues to rethink one's own ideology which is what forums are really supposed to be about.

Have a great day.

[x-y-no]

Well it looks like you took a look at the Baranyi paper or at least the very beginning. This is a good start at least.

Actually, I hadn't looked at it at the time I posted, but I did skim through it last night.

Lets not just dwell on the solar radiation effect from X-Flares with tropical storms. When people start talking about watts per square meter,,...etc....we're hashing over old tunnel vision...pre-conceived perceptions of how the sun might be effecting us.

I'm sorry, but if we're going to do science, we have no choice but to deal in quantifiable, measurable phenomena.

Many changes on the sun occur in tandem with major flaring ..changes in corona etc...the magnitude of this can change dramatically like I mentioned in an earlier post. Plus I have always contended that if the earth's environment is in a continual relationship-feedback with the solar IMF then the tables will already be set for certain weather to occur...dice get loaded... I have seen this time and time again with coronal holes.

Feedback? You're claiming the Earth's climate affects solar activity??? I hope not.

Just explain the mechanism by which you claim these relatively tiny fluctuations can affect tropical cyclogenesis.

As far as polar vortex..many papers written..more with winter though. Once again...probably magnetic field angle...

The reason I brough up the polar vortex is because any effect of high-energy electromagnetic and/or plasma flux phenomena would be expected to be far larger in the polar regions than in the tropics. If you have read the Baranyi paper yourself, then you know that they make precisely this point as justification for why one might expect localized weather effects in the polar regions.

So once again, I'll ask why, if there were such a large effect in the tropics as to influence cyclogenesis in the face of far higher ambient energy levels, is there no corresponsingly larger effect in the polar regions where most of the energy from these events is concentrated?

Space weather effects are in no way limited to just the higher latitudes because of our magnetic field ...check out ring current....DST...

I didn't say they're limited to the polar regions, I said they're concentrated in the polar regions. And at the same time, the direct radiative flux is far lower in the polar regions than in the tropics. So in all respects, this would argue for a far more pronounced effect at high latitudes than in the tropics.

If you read most well written space weather - climate paper now they almost always deal with the solar wind - magnetic field vectors in some way or another. I do not care if it's a day to day or week to week relationship. Some researches , in regards to longer time scale patterns , may be based on whether the solar cycle is parallel or antiparallel. (Odd/Even based on IMF-polarity direction.)

The latter , may deal with decadal GCR changes, and how it might also have an effect upon the earth' electrical circuit...and Forbush decreases also may have an effect .... Some others deal with the possibility of gravity waves eventually propagating downward from the thermosphere thereby effecting atmospheric circulation patterns.

They are all just a hypothesis right now but I do not think that we can just disregard them because of this. All research stages start out like this.

I'm asking you to propose a mechanism. I have given qualitative arguments as to why I think this hypothesis is unreasonable. I have seen nothig to counter those arguments.

I was being kind to your argument in only saying the relative energies we're taking about here differ by seven orders of magnitude. In fact, the polar bias of flare related flux, as well as the fact that stored energy play a big role in tropical cyclogenesis (as evidenced by the fact that the season peak lags the radaitive influx maximum by about two months) suggests that it's really more like ten orders of magnitude.

You are the one making the extraordinary claim that such a relatively tiny forcing factor could be decisive in tropical cyclogenesis. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.

...

I'll take a look at the papers you cite. I'm not holding my breath that they'll support your thesis any more than the Baryani paper does, though (which is to say hardly at all).

Jan

EDIT:

OK, the Boberg/Lundstedt article is an interesting result, but it deals with a far longer term effect, correlating the 12-month moving average of the NAO with solar wind. That's a bit surprising, but far less so than your claimed effect would be, because the NAO is a pressure gradient phenomenon involving the polar region, and for much of the year the direct radiative influx in that region is small (or even zero north of the arctic circle) which would allow for the smaller plasma flux to have influence.

This really doesn't address the issues I raised.

Second EDIT:

The Bowman/Mortimer paper needs some more careful reading than I can give it just now, but skimming it, their argument appears to be that there is a coupled resonance of geomagnetic activity and solar activity, and that the geomagnetic activity influences the amplitude of circumpolar Rossby waves.

At first glance, some of the correlations presented look a little weak to me, but let's grant their hypothesis. It still seems to be quite a leap to go from this to tropical cyclogenesis. I await your proposed mechanism for that effect.