so was Ivan really a Cat 3? at landfall

[Droop12]

I agree with Derek and the fact Dennis was stronger then Ivan at landfall. The eye of Dennis went right over my house (eastern Gulf Breeze area) the area everyone seems to think is unihabited, which in fact its not. Wind damage was much worse around here this time around. The thing is though, Dennis was small and Pensacola was spared the worst of the eyewall this time around, and there was no surge damage, so people automatically assume Dennis was a dud, which in fact he wasnt in a very small area. During Ivan, I bet over half of the homes that were destroyed, were destroyed by surge, not wind. If only some people could understand the simple concept that all storms are different! Heres a good example...Dennis - Compact, wind producer, quick mover. Ivan - Massive Cat 5 for 2 days, Very large in size, Slow mover. Its obvious which will do the most damage, but that doesnt mean Ivan was stronger. Its so simple to understand, but so hard to explain...Some people just need to understand that.

[Acral]

Correct me if I am wrong, but a fat, slow to idle CAT ONE will do more total damage than a compact 5 gripping and ripping it at say 25ish MPH

[beachbum_al]

I know all the reports of what NHC had with the winds but what was the highest winds recored? from what i read besides the tornadoes this storm did not do cat 3 damage.

I still cant find anywhere that winds outside of a tornado were over 100.

I have to disagree with you on this one. When it made landfall along the Alabama Gulf Coast it did major damage to coastal areas. The place looked like a bomb had gone off. Now when it got up toward Fairhope, Daphne area it might not had been 120mph winds but they were still strong enough to knock our fence down, tear shingles off of the roof, knock trees down, and take part of the metal stuff of our house. Oh and I forgot about my neighbor's chimney being in my backyard.

I think people along the Alabama and Florida Coast would disagree with you on this one. Especially those who lost everything!

[Acral]

I know all the reports of what NHC had with the winds but what was the highest winds recored? from what i read besides the tornadoes this storm did not do cat 3 damage.

I still cant find anywhere that winds outside of a tornado were over 100.

I have to disagree with you on this one. When it made landfall along the Alabama Gulf Coast it did major damage to coastal areas. The place looked like a bomb had gone off. Now when it got up toward Fairhope, Daphne area it might not had been 120mph winds but they were still strong enough to knock our fence down, tear shingles off of the roof, knock trees down, and take part of the metal stuff of our house. Oh and I forgot about my neighbor's chimney being in my backyard.

I think people along the Alabama and Florida Coast would disagree with you on this one. Especially those who lost everything!

Remember it's one thing for people to look at newscasts and reports, and quite another to realize that even now, as far inland as Spanish Fort Alabama and Cantonement Florida, there remains damage from Ivan.

[beachbum_al]

read this "Ivan was nowhere near as bad as Frederic — not even close," Mobile Police Chief Sam Cochran said, referring to the 1979 storm that devastated the Alabama coast. "I think we were really spared and blessed."

And it was a whole different ball game during Frederic. Mobile and Fairhope were on the bad side of the storm. Ivan went in along Gulf Shores and up HWY 59~Foley, Summerdale, Robertsdale, etc. Different areas. When Frederic hit in 1979 we were on the East side of the eye. The Bad side of it has people like to call it. Ivan we were lucky but I wouldn't based my information on that because you are talking about two different things here. Two different storms going into two different area. Now if Ivan had stayed on the path it was taking and had not made that slight jog to the east it would had been a different story for Mobile and surround cities on Mobile Bay.

[tropical]

Just a point of clarification, because I didn't see anyone else in this thread do so...

Andrew was reported a Cat 4 when it hit Florida, but a month or so later they called it a cat 5 hurricane. If they can higher the cat later down the road, I don't see why they can't lower the cat later after offical reports.

It wasn't a month or so later... it was a decade later.

The National Hurricane Center has had an ongoing program to review the historical record of all storms. Scientists and other researchers note that society needs an accurate account of the frequency and intensity of past catastrophic events to best plan for the future.

"We have recently completed a review of a re-analysis of storms from 1851 to 1910," said Colin McAdie, chairman of the National Hurricane Center's Best Track Committee. This re-analysis effort was undertaken by a team led by Dr. Chris Landsea of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (HRD) and supported by a grant from the NOAA Office of Global Programs (OGP).

Hurricane Andrew is one of the most significant cases studied. According to McAdie, scientific understanding of the wind structure in strong hurricanes has significantly increased since 1992. For Andrew, the Best Track Committee considered input from scientists at the HRD, including the "re-analysis team" and National Hurricane Center.

Since 1997, forecasters have used Global Positioning System dropwindsondes, a measuring device dropped from hurricane reconnaissance aircraft into the eyewall - the windiest part of the hurricane. The sonde system measures temperature, barometric pressure, water vapor and wind data every 15 feet on its way down.

This new method gave meteorologists an important glimpse into the true strength of these devastating storms. The analyses of the dropwindsonde data indicated that, on average, the maximum sustained surface-wind speed was about 90 percent of the wind speed measured at the 10,000-foot aircraft level flown as Andrew approached south Florida. In 1992, Andrew's wind speed was estimated at 75 to 80 percent of the aircraft observations. The research findings resulted in an increase in the estimated wind speeds of Hurricane Andrew from 145 mph to 165 mph.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/NOAA_pr_8-21-02.html



Sorry to nitpick, please carry on...

[Acral]

In either case, those that lost everything do not care what the storm was classified as. Gone is gone.

Oh and a quote on the building codes in Gulf Shores/Orange Beach Alabama:

Hurricane Ivan rampaged through the region inSeptember, leaving thousands homeless and causing an estimated $20 billion in damages. Despite the losses, building safety officials there were quick to praise the performances of stronger codes and standards during themajor hurricane.—It‘s obvious,“ remarked City of Gulf Shores Building Official Mike Terry. —You can see what‘s left and what‘s not.“Another example of newer, stronger building codes livingup to their worth could be found in the City of OrangeBeach, Alabama, which currently enforces the 2003 I-Codes. Next to a beachfront home that had been finishedtwo months prior to Ivan making landfall, was a pile ofrubble where an older home had been completely destroyedduring the storm.

Source: iccsafe.org
[/quote]

[Droop12]

Acral, I was comparing Dennis and Ivan, not a slow, idle Cat 1, and a fast moving Cat 5. It was obvious Ivan would do more damage because of his history as a Cat 5, he had already built up huge waves and surge. Dennis was stronger, but he hadnt built up 50-75ft waves and a 20ft surge. He was also much smaller meaing a very small area saw the worst winds. Just because his effects werent widespread and didnt cost 13 billion in damage, doesnt mean he was a dud. I was pointing out, that just because a storm isnt always a Cat 4 or 5, they still do tremendous damage. I know Derek harps on this all the time. I see why now.

[Normandy]

Correct me if I am wrong, but a fat, slow to idle CAT ONE will do more total damage than a compact 5 gripping and ripping it at say 25ish MPH

I disagree....because the Cat 1 only has winds of 75ish or 80ish mph, thats probably enough to do minor roof damage at best (not level structures unless the eyewall basically sat over you for three days). Frances pounded FLorida for a good while (Strong Cat 2), and theres a whooooooole bunch of levels between its damage and Andrews.

[Acral]

Correct me if I am wrong, but a fat, slow to idle CAT ONE will do more total damage than a compact 5 gripping and ripping it at say 25ish MPH

I disagree....because the Cat 1 only has winds of 75ish or 80ish mph, thats probably enough to do minor roof damage at best (not level structures unless the eyewall basically sat over you for three days). Frances pounded FLorida for a good while (Strong Cat 2), and theres a whooooooole bunch of levels between its damage and Andrews.

Very good point. I had not considered that. Learn something new everyday!

[Jim Cantore]

it was a cat 3 I heard though with winds at 130mph

[Derek Ortt]

Ivan only had official landfall winds of 120 m.p.h. (best track lowered the winds). The SFMR, as I previously stated, does not even justify 100KT 9which the intensity almost was lowered to). The SFMR is the best data that is currently available

[JTD]

Ivan only had official landfall winds of 120 m.p.h. (best track lowered the winds). The SFMR, as I previously stated, does not even justify 100KT 9which the intensity almost was lowered to). The SFMR is the best data that is currently available

So Ivan was falling apart fast before landfall? If it had been another 24 hours to landfall, would this have been Lili like in terms of degree of falling apart?

[EDR1222]

Although Frances did not do the type of damage that Ivan did, the fact that it was so large and lasted so long did cause some problems it might not have caused if it had passed through quicker.

The facts are that Ivan, Charley, Frances, and Jeanne are among the top 10 costliest hurricanes of all time. All very destructive in their own right.

[SouthernWx]

Ivan only had official landfall winds of 120 m.p.h. (best track lowered the winds). The SFMR, as I previously stated, does not even justify 100KT 9which the intensity almost was lowered to). The SFMR is the best data that is currently available

Yes, but let us remember.....the NOAA research P-3 left the eyewall region over an hour BEFORE landfall occurred. I was watching the recon data minute by minute that September night.....the last SFMR data from the eastern eyewall was about 90 minutes before landfall.

As we learned with Jeanne a few days later, sometimes intensity can come up dramatically at time of landfall....due to frictional effects and other factors. In the 11 p.m. advisory just before Jeanne made landfall on Florida, specialist Pasch speculated Jeanne might not be a major hurricane....but only a few moments later NOAA SFMR recorded 110-115 kts in the northern eyewall just offshore the beaches.

If the NOAA SFMR data from Ivan was at time of landfall and indicated 100 kts....I'd have no problem accepting it. However, since it wasn't flying in the eyewall at landfall, and since I've seen Nexrad data suggesting 104-108 kts at the surface AND a 126 kt peak gust report from near Perdido Pass...I stand by my estimate of 110 kt and 946 mb; and feel just as confident as Stacy Stewart does about his 105 kt estimate (and just as confident as my analysis that Andrew was a 140 kt cat-5 in 1993...when no one I told believed me....but now we know my estimate was much closer to reality than either NHC's or HRD's at that time

PW

[Normandy]

You think Andrews winds were ONLY 160 mph? I would beg to differ (More along the lines of 175 ish)....thats just my thoughts though.

[Ivanhater]

Ivan only had official landfall winds of 120 m.p.h. (best track lowered the winds). The SFMR, as I previously stated, does not even justify 100KT 9which the intensity almost was lowered to). The SFMR is the best data that is currently available

Yes, but let us remember.....the NOAA research P-3 left the eyewall region over an hour BEFORE landfall occurred. I was watching the recon data minute by minute that September night.....the last SFMR data from the eastern eyewall was about 90 minutes before landfall.

As we learned with Jeanne a few days later, sometimes intensity can come up dramatically at time of landfall....due to frictional effects and other factors. In the 11 p.m. advisory just before Jeanne made landfall on Florida, specialist Pasch speculated Jeanne might not be a major hurricane....but only a few moments later NOAA SFMR recorded 110-115 kts in the northern eyewall just offshore the beaches.

If the NOAA SFMR data from Ivan was at time of landfall and indicated 100 kts....I'd have no problem accepting it. However, since it wasn't flying in the eyewall at landfall, and since I've seen Nexrad data suggesting 104-108 kts at the surface AND a 126 kt peak gust report from near Perdido Pass...I stand by my estimate of 110 kt and 946 mb; and feel just as confident as Stacy Stewart does about his 105 kt estimate (and just as confident as my analysis that Andrew was a 140 kt cat-5 in 1993...when no one I told believed me....but now we know my estimate was much closer to reality than either NHC's or HRD's at that time

PW

i tell ya, i agree with you, 60 to 80 percent of the tree canopy was stripped from ivan and thousands of trees down, and i live in a strong sturdy house and that night the winds were busting the door in and we had to move the couch infront of it, the winds were stronger

[Jim Cantore]

There was also a gust of 141mph recorded on a boat in Orange Beach Alabama which took really the worst of the winds

all the data I read says 130 at landfall in fact heres a quote right off the 2am advisory on the 16th almost right at landfall

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 130 MPH

and heres the link to the whole thing

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/pub/al092004.public_b.055.shtml?

[senorpepr]

There was also a gust of 141mph recorded on a boat in Orange Beach Alabama which took really the worst of the winds

all the data I read says 130 at landfall in fact heres a quote right off the 2am advisory on the 16th almost right at landfall

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 130 MPH

and heres the link to the whole thing

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/pub/al092004.public_b.055.shtml?

Check out http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004ivan.shtml?

Ivan's winds were officially lowered in the best track to 120 mph.

[SouthernWx]

You think Andrews winds were ONLY 160 mph? I would beg to differ (More along the lines of 175 ish)....thats just my thoughts though.

NO my friend. That (140 kt) was my INITIAL estimate in late 1992/ 1993 after viewing the damage firsthand, analyzing radar data, and analyzing the pressure/ wind relationship of a 926 mb hurricane (the pressure given as "official" in the preliminary NHC report; later revised to 922 mb). The pressure gradient gave an estimate of 141 kt (162 mph).

In early 1993, I told a couple forecasters at the Atlanta WSFO my theory that Andrew was much more intense than the 120-125 kt estimate of NHC and they scoffed at me. While admittedly my 1992-93 estimate was too low....I was a helluva lot closer to the true intensity than NHC at that time (who claimed Andrew as a cat-4 hurricane until 2002).

I today believe Andrew's true intensity at landfall may have been closer to 155 kts (175-180 mph)....because I strongly suspect winds continued to increase AFTER the last recon pass an hour before landfall measured of 162 kts at 700 mb flight level (IMO flight level winds at landfall were 170 kts.....and surface sustained winds in then north eyewall 150-155 kts).

PW