92L A Florida Threat? See Model Plots; convection increasing

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #21 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 3:19 pm

Right now it's looking pretty weak but once ULL goes away development will be possible. How much it will develop is speculation, as an amateur I am full of speculation...

The models will likely shift left to favor a GOM system...

#22 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 3:21 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:Bet the south 40 92L will develop and threaten the east GOM.

Do you have a south 40???? :roflmao:

j/k. I hope you are wrong but time will tell.

Why aren't you on mtm's Google Earth map? I almost entered it for you but thought you might have a personal reason for not doing so. I'll PM later.

Lynn

Astro_man92 · #23 Postby **Astro_man92** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 3:24 pm

Just wondering this possibly isn't really the place but.... is any one else tracking the space shuttle on google earth???? :?:

clfenwi · #24 Postby **clfenwi** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 3:24 pm

deltadog03 wrote:yeah, ridge is building in...i would think this is still going through the FL straits and then moving WEST into the GOM..imo...also, look at the low in the gulf now, its moving or drifting WEST

the HIGH will be pushing Wstd, and building stronger....

Quite the opposite, the ridge has been forecast to retreat opening a northward path for the system if it were to develop:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

Hurricaneman · #25 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 3:25 pm

Thats an interesting idea

TheShrimper · #26 Postby **TheShrimper** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 3:26 pm

You want to bet your homestead in Levy Co. to mine down here in Lee Dixie? I will take that bet honey. Get your deed transfers ready.

TheShrimper · #27 Postby **TheShrimper** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 3:28 pm

..or is it Citrus?

#28 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 3:39 pm

HurricaneQueen wrote:
dixiebreeze wrote:Bet the south 40 92L will develop and threaten the east GOM.

Do you have a south 40???? j/k. I hope you are wrong but time will tell.

Why aren't you on mtm's Google Earth map? I almost entered it for you but thought you might have a personal reason for not doing so. I'll PM later.

Lynn

Not really, but I do have 2 acres to bet. Hope 92 won't affect your territory, Lynn.

#29 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 3:40 pm

TheShrimper wrote:..or is it Citrus?

That's closer, darlin' :wink:

boca · #30 Postby **boca** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 3:47 pm

92L is just an afternnon giant thunderstorm.

#31 Postby **deltadog03** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 3:51 pm

and what model is that based on?? GFS??

Astro_man92 · #32 Postby **Astro_man92** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 3:58 pm

deltadog03 wrote:and what model is that based on?? GFS??

What is GFS Gordons Food Services :lol:

#33 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 4:01 pm

Now....we all know those models really aint' worth dung right now.

elysium · #34 Postby **elysium** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 4:06 pm

It appears as though 92L is reforming its center just to the north of Purto Rico, although there is fairly strong convection on the northern coastline of Hispaniola. If the center is on the Hispaniola coast, 92L will not weaken significantly due to interaction with land, and there is no reason that we shouldn't expect robust development to begin in another 12 hours or so.

92L should maintain a heading of W.N.W. as it strengthens and heads toward the Florida penisula through the Bahamas. While there is a possibility of more northerly motion in 48 hrs, the ridge is forecast to build back in to a lesser or greater degree depending on which model guidance you are using. Much will depend on the strength or the ridge as well as the strength or weakness of the trough being forecast to arrive on the east coast. Does anyone have the today's prognostic on the ridge and trough placement for mid-week?

clfenwi · #35 Postby **clfenwi** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 4:07 pm

deltadog03 wrote:and what model is that based on?? GFS??

The forecast I linked to?

That is not a model forecast... that is a forecast prepared by an honest to goodness human being... questions about what it is based on would have to be directed to Martin Nelson of the Tropical Anlysis Forecasting branch...

Website · #36 Postby **Brent** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 4:22 pm

TheShrimper wrote:You want to bet your homestead in Levy Co. to mine down here in Lee Dixie? I will take that bet honey. Get your deed transfers ready.

LOL

#37 Postby **deltadog03** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 4:44 pm

clfenwi wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:and what model is that based on?? GFS??

The forecast I linked to?

That is not a model forecast... that is a forecast prepared by an honest to goodness human being... questions about what it is based on would have to be directed to Martin Nelson of the Tropical Anlysis Forecasting branch...

I know what map that is....im saying i wonder what model they are basing that on??

HouTXmetro · #38 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 4:48 pm

I know one thing, just checked out the radar and it appears most of the FLA penn is getting punded with Thunder storms.

#39 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 4:53 pm

Brent wrote:
TheShrimper wrote:You want to bet your homestead in Levy Co. to mine down here in Lee Dixie? I will take that bet honey. Get your deed transfers ready.

Seriously... thinking it'll develop(when it's pretty unlikely) and heading for where you will live, that reminds me of something...

Seriously... Brent, wish I had a dime for every time you've speculated that sentiment. Seems to be your mantra.

Website · #40 Postby **Brent** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 5:10 pm

Edited

92L A Florida Threat? See Model Plots; convection increasing

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