Official 93L Invest thread=93L is not anymore at NRL

boca · #21 Postby **boca** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 1:20 pm

93L another Gomer what a surprise. Hopefully peninsula Florida will not have to deal with anything this year,so far so good, but we still have the meat and potato's of the season coming up.

WindRunner · #22 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 1:27 pm

They should do it tomorrow afternoon with the scheduled recon if this continues to organize.

#23 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 1:28 pm

I'm looking at a 48-hr water vapor loop and I do not see any sign of an upper-level low in the Caribbean ahead of 93L. All I see is a ridge centered along 65W. There's a sharp but weakening trof along 75W, but it's retreating westward very quickly. If any of the models are initializing any low there, then they are higly suspect. I never trust model projections of upper winds over the ocean. Water vapor tells the real story.

That said, I don't really see anything to inhibit development of 93L, except that convergence is limited by the fast movement. Once the wave slows down past the DR, there should be more opportunity for low-level convergence, which could lead to development.

Ola · #24 Postby **Ola** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 1:28 pm

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 11N52W.

Looking at the latest sat loops, I see the weak low being left behind with the convection racing westard.

wxwatcher91 · #25 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 1:30 pm

any chance 93L could become a TD at 5pm or 11pm tonight??? I want the streak to continue

lol

looks like it'll end at 27 days

#26 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 1:31 pm

Ola wrote:
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 11N52W.

Looking at the latest sat loops, I see the weak low being left behind with the convection racing westard.

Easterly shear.

Thunder44 · #27 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 1:32 pm

757
WHXX01 KWBC 301824
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20050730 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050730 1800 050731 0600 050731 1800 050801 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.7N 54.0W 10.9N 57.1W 11.3N 60.2W 11.9N 63.2W
BAMM 10.7N 54.0W 10.8N 57.1W 11.3N 60.1W 12.0N 62.9W
A98E 10.7N 54.0W 11.1N 57.7W 11.3N 61.3W 11.6N 64.4W
LBAR 10.7N 54.0W 11.0N 57.6W 11.5N 61.5W 12.2N 65.1W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS 50KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050801 1800 050802 1800 050803 1800 050804 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.6N 66.1W 14.1N 71.7W 15.3N 77.2W 16.5N 82.0W
BAMM 12.8N 65.6W 14.4N 70.6W 15.3N 76.1W 16.0N 81.8W
A98E 11.9N 67.3W 13.1N 72.2W 14.1N 76.5W 14.7N 81.2W
LBAR 13.0N 68.6W 14.9N 75.1W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 56KTS 67KTS 75KTS 78KTS
DSHP 56KTS 67KTS 75KTS 78KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.7N LONCUR = 54.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
LATM12 = 10.3N LONM12 = 50.1W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 10.3N LONM24 = 46.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

Derek Ortt · #28 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 1:34 pm

yeah, its favorable up to about 65-70W. Its going to reach that latitude in about 36 hours though.

However, if there is in fact a low-level surge, good night 93L. Often, a low-level easterly wind surgeis typical of a very destructive SAL event

stormandan28 · #29 Postby **stormandan28** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 1:35 pm

93L developes it looks like it will take a Emily track and leave us alone here in the us is this because the high is so strong :?:

boca · #30 Postby **boca** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 1:37 pm

Derek my money is on you. You've been very acurate so far in predicting these waves and their behavor.

Hurricaneman · #31 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 1:40 pm

Slight development for this invest, in my opinion it wont become much

Astro_man92 · #32 Postby **Astro_man92** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 1:45 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Slight development for this invest, in my opinion it wont become much

I agree with you. Because of this SAL and all of this dry air nothing seems to be developing and I don't think anything will develope untill the SAL starts to weaken and the dry air start to go away. So I don't think that 93L will develope.

EDIT: never mind I think it will develope

Opal storm · #33 Postby **Opal storm** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:03 pm

stormandan28 wrote:93L developes it looks like it will take a Emily track and leave us alone here in the us is this because the high is so strong

Looks like it.

Poor Mexico has been getting slammed this year.

#34 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:06 pm

Yucatan again.

Website · #35 Postby **Brent** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:19 pm

cycloneye wrote:Yucatan again.

Might be Belize, Honduras, or Guatemala. If it goes on that track it goes in south of Emily.

#36 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:22 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Ola wrote:
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 11N52W.

Looking at the latest sat loops, I see the weak low being left behind with the convection racing westard.

Easterly shear.

I don't know if I can agree about the shear. I kinda see a slight rotation at lower levels.

Astro_man92 · #37 Postby **Astro_man92** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:29 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Do you think this will become a depression

If 93L moves into a more favorable enviroment i'd think it might. I'm not saying that it isn't in a favorable enviromant right now or is it? what i'm getting at is if conditions are right for a fair amount of time yes I think it will form a TD.

#38 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 3:08 pm

http://atmos.uprm.edu:8080/imageloop.jsp?set=1

Good loop of 93L.But look at that NW shear in the westcentral caribbean.That is what 93L will have to contend with down the road unless the upper conditions get better in the westcentral caribbean area.

#39 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 3:48 pm

Shortly the 5:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook will be posted here.The wave looks better this afternoon although some easterly shear is not permitting it organize more.

#40 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 30, 2005 4:10 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 302100
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 MPH. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

The TWO for 92L is posted at the 92L thread.

Official 93L Invest thread=93L is not anymore at NRL

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