92L A Florida Threat? See Model Plots; convection increasing

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92L A Florida Threat? See Model Plots; convection increasing

#1 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:30 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

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JUST Imagine- those hot SSTs off FL's west coast 93 F at the surface at clearwater beach...--this could blow up when it hits the E. GOM...

Breezy conditions next week for Tampa Bay?
Interesting....Imagine the possibilites...
this needs to be watched by ALL in S. FL. or West Coast FL as well as those on the Gulf Coast- keep your eyes open....

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Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:43 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#2 Postby skysummit » Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:31 pm

Which runs are these? Are these from today?

Nevermind...they are from today. The plots just came out :D

My GE just updated too.

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Last edited by skysummit on Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:34 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#3 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:31 pm

thats a dramatic shift right than this morning.....we will see...there is no telling where this is going yet...or heck if any development is possible...so, now the highs not gonna build in or what?
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#4 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:38 pm

Let's hope 92L becomes a bust....
what??? it's really bursting even near land!
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#5 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:38 pm

I think it will get sheared by the ul now, but may have a chance later on, even that doesnt seem likely
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#6 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:45 pm

345 pm Update: There is a lot more convection. This thing does not want to die. :eek:

What happened to the Bermuda High? That was supposed to steer it south of FL??
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#7 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:46 pm

The high seems to have slightly weakened
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#8 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:47 pm

yeah, ridge is building in...i would think this is still going through the FL straits and then moving WEST into the GOM..imo...also, look at the low in the gulf now, its moving or drifting WEST


the HIGH will be pushing Wstd, and building stronger....
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#9 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:47 pm

The high seems to have slightly weakened


NOT good.... :eek:
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#10 Postby Astro_man92 » Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:48 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:345 pm Update: There is a lot more convection. This thing does not want to die. :eek:

What happened to the Bermuda High? That was supposed to steer it south of FL??


WOW if it has a lot more convection and that strong ULL is there just imagin if it wasn't :shocked!: :shocked!: :shocked!: :shocked!:
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#11 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:48 pm

How is it moving now? Due West?
EDIT: Yes it's drifting west- I did not see earlier post
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#12 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:49 pm

what?? i am talking about the surface low in the gulf...its forecasted to move or drift WEST...sorry...
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#13 Postby Astro_man92 » Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:58 pm

Q: Is 92L a threat to SE FL

My A: as of right now I wouldn't say it is a threat just a bunch of thunderstorms 8-)
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#14 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Jul 30, 2005 3:03 pm

Right now it's not in a threatening state- but those warm GOM temperatures are what strike me as fuel for intensification in 2-3 days.
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#15 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Jul 30, 2005 3:09 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My amateurish forecast: This will move into a more favorable environment in a couple of days...Once it gets away from the ULL...

Once it moves off of land:
Day two may see depression at 35 and later 40 mph TS
I'm forecasting a strong TS with 60 mph in three days...based on reduced convection since ULL moves away and warm water to fuel it.
Day 4: Strong TS 70/Weak Hurricane 75 mph winds if it stays off land
Day 5: if it encounters no land strength will increase to strong cat 1 potentially.
Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Sat Jul 30, 2005 3:17 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#16 Postby dixiebreeze » Sat Jul 30, 2005 3:11 pm

Bet the south 40 92L will develop and threaten the east GOM.
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Opal storm

#17 Postby Opal storm » Sat Jul 30, 2005 3:15 pm

If the ridge is strong enough might push it all the way to Texas and could possibly be a much stronger system than what it is now.Just my opinion.
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#18 Postby Patrick99 » Sat Jul 30, 2005 3:16 pm

It looks like a load of you-know-what....seems way too close to that upper level low. I don't think it will develop.
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#19 Postby Astro_man92 » Sat Jul 30, 2005 3:17 pm

Patrick99 wrote:It looks like a load of you-know-what....seems way too close to that upper level low. I don't think it will develop.


Agreed
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#20 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Jul 30, 2005 3:18 pm

I agree...I think imo...i would have a much better idea of where this might go after seeing what happens with the low in the gulf...cuz, models prog the high to build in nicely...so, we will see...
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