Official 93L Invest thread=93L is not anymore at NRL

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cycloneye
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Official 93L Invest thread=93L is not anymore at NRL

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 30, 2005 10:29 am

ABNT20 KNHC 301506
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20-25
MPH. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Because 93L has made a comeback a new thread with all the information related to 93L will be posted here.

Image
Last edited by cycloneye on Mon Aug 01, 2005 10:54 am, edited 24 times in total.
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#2 Postby johngaltfla » Sat Jul 30, 2005 10:31 am

Intersting, this is our lull and this sucker won't die. Maybe 93L will be the one to become Harvey after all....
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 30, 2005 10:33 am



760
NOUS42 KNHC 301500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 30 JULY 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z JULY TO 01/1100Z AUG 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-063

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 31/2000Z A. 01/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST B. AFXXX 0208A CYCLONE
C. 31/1430Z C. 01/0400Z
D. 12.0N 59.0W D. 13.0N 63.0W
E. 31/1900Z TO 01/0030Z E. 01/0500Z TO 01/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.
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#4 Postby x-y-no » Sat Jul 30, 2005 10:38 am

Think we can run this thread up to 14 pages like we did the 92L thread? :lol: :lol:
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#5 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 30, 2005 10:56 am

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#6 Postby Frank2 » Sat Jul 30, 2005 11:00 am

If all the energy expended on 92L posts could have been harnessed, 92L would have been a hurricane!

Glad I stuck with my heart on that one...

Frank
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#7 Postby EDR1222 » Sat Jul 30, 2005 11:21 am

93 does look to be gaining more thunderstorm activity. I guess it depends on the shear it encounters.
Last edited by EDR1222 on Sat Jul 30, 2005 11:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#8 Postby WindRunner » Sat Jul 30, 2005 11:29 am

If this thing develops, it could easily hit 82 knots by the time it hits central carib. Low shear and high-heat water are the only things out there for 5-6 days.

They might have to classify it before the plane gets there tomorrow afternoon
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#9 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Jul 30, 2005 11:47 am

this is almost certain to be strongly sheared in the Carib. That trough is not going anywhere anytime soon.

We could get a TD or a weak TS out of this prior to reaching the islands, but then little change in intensity would likely occur in the Caribbean
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#10 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 30, 2005 11:52 am

Image

For those who may think this will crash into SouthAmerica no it wont happen.
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#11 Postby Anonymous » Sat Jul 30, 2005 11:54 am

We have to wait and see what the environment is like down the road.
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#12 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 30, 2005 12:07 pm

Image

This image is a shortwave one.
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#13 Postby weatherwindow » Sat Jul 30, 2005 12:18 pm

i think that the forward speed will be a limiting factor until it reaches 75deg w.........currently 22kts. then serious intensification......................rich
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Derek Ortt

#14 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Jul 30, 2005 12:24 pm

The UL wind forecast this time is fairly obvious. We really don't have to wait for anything to determine that there is going to be some shear in its path.

The trough is not going to be moving anywhere. This has about 36-48 hours left of favorable conditions, and as I said, even a weak TS would not be surprising, but then it is most likely going to struggle
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#15 Postby Derecho » Sat Jul 30, 2005 12:34 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:The UL wind forecast this time is fairly obvious.



The next UL wind forecast beyond 48 hours that I see that's "obvious" in the tropical Atlantic, will be the first one.

It's the main reason intensity can't be predicted.

FWIW, the shear forecasts from the 12Z models that are out so far have 93Ls little anticyclone moving along with it into the Caribbean. Of course, models routinely get rid of shear or move ULLs west far faster than reality.

But in no way, shape, or form would I call the upper level wind forecast "obvious."
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#16 Postby Astro_man92 » Sat Jul 30, 2005 12:36 pm

Frank2 wrote:If all the energy expended on 92L posts could have been harnessed, 92L would have been a hurricane!

Glad I stuck with my heart on that one...

Frank


lol :lol:
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#17 Postby hurricanefreak1988 » Sat Jul 30, 2005 12:38 pm

Argh. These Gulf storms are getting pretty annoying. This thing will probably be a near-exact clone of Emily, as far as track goes.
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#18 Postby clfenwi » Sat Jul 30, 2005 12:41 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:this is almost certain to be strongly sheared in the Carib. That trough is not going anywhere anytime soon.

We could get a TD or a weak TS out of this prior to reaching the islands, but then little change in intensity would likely occur in the Caribbean


(note that this draws on your comments in an earlier non-official Invest 93 thread as well)

I agree that the central Caribbean is currently inhospitable, but isn't the eastern Caribbean (east of 70°) reasonably favorable at the moment?

Do you disagree with that asessment or otherwise have clarifying comments?

SHIPS going 82 knots is a reach since it assumes something that happened yet. That said, I think that if something were to spin up in the next 24 hours or so, it would have a reasonable chance of getting towards 65 knots (its rapid forward progress is its enemy... doesn't get that much time in the favorable enviroment).

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A mildly ot and definitely lazy question for anyone who happens to know: SHIPS uses the LBAR model for track input. Correct or not?
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#19 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 30, 2005 1:14 pm

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W/53W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 20 KT.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS QUITE ACTIVE...WITH
HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 11N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 10N-14N ALONG AND W OF THE WAVE
AXIS TO 57W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE WAVE IS AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF A WIND SURGE...WITH WINDS OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THE
WAVE AND 10-15 KT WINDS AHEAD OF THE WAVE NEAR AND OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES. HOWEVER...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZATION IS
NOTED. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 16N52W. ON ITS
CURRENT MOTION...SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUN WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.




The above is from TPC discussion at 2:05 PM.
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#20 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Jul 30, 2005 1:18 pm

Do you think this will become a depression
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