lol @ MM5 120 hour MSLP...

[Steve]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... hour=120hr

A nice pear in the Gulf, maybe 6 closed surface rotations in the Basin. You've gotta be kidding. That's valid for Wed @ 7pm. Who wants to bet this verifies (I'm taking the /not gonna do it/ side).

Steve

[tailgater]

FSU nuff said

[dhweather]

I saw it this morning and thought "gee, time to retire that model"

[Brent]

[P.K.]

That looks like one of better runs to me.

[micktooth]

Just like their football programs. They like to talk the talk, but when you look closely, it's all a facade!

[wzrgirl1]

I second that!!

[jdray]

Just like their football programs. They like to talk the talk, but when you look closely, it's all a facade!

Yeah, kinda like how there is a 10 year record of increased hurricanes there was a 10 year+ dominance of college football.


Its funny when people say FSU has a horrible down year and they still win 10 games.

[WindRunner]

Looking at the cmc (different model), it seems to carry three storms by friday night
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005073000&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Even the GFS has come of its calm period call, it has two weak storms and one dying over canadian maritime by friday night

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2005073006&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

But eight at once is beyond pushing it

[Stormcenter]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc2.cgi?time=2005073000&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=120hr

A nice pear in the Gulf, maybe 6 closed surface rotations in the Basin. You've gotta be kidding. That's valid for Wed @ 7pm. Who wants to bet this verifies (I'm taking the /not gonna do it/ side).

Steve

[Derek Ortt]

i'll bet 25 million that the FSU version of the MM5 will never produce a meaningful forecast

[clfenwi]

Obviously, it is an experiment by the Psychology Department (with Dr Hart as a willing co-conspirator) to see how people react to computer models that generate hurricanes in excessive numbers and excessive strength.

Pretty interesting results so far...

[The Big Dog]

Obviously, it is an experiment by the Psychology Department (with Dr Hart as a willing co-conspirator) to see how people react to computer models that generate hurricanes in excessive numbers and excessive strength.

Pretty interesting results so far...

Yeah, he has Derek ready to set fire to Tallahassee.

[Astro_man92]

Looking at the cmc (different model), it seems to carry three storms by friday night
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005073000&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Even the GFS has come of its calm period call, it has two weak storms and one dying over canadian maritime by friday night

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2005073006&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

But eight at once is beyond pushing it

that cmc model says something is going to develope in the next week or so

[P.K.]

i'll bet 25 million that the FSU version of the MM5 will never produce a meaningful forecast

You never know, what is the probability of it producing a correct forecast by accident?

[WindRunner]

if it were one in 25 mil that would take 2852 years - some number

[wxwatcher91]

i'll bet 25 million that the FSU version of the MM5 will never produce a meaningful forecast

I take that bet... and add on 25 mil that we will have 4 hurricanes in 5 days.

lol nothing says "in debt" like betting in favor of a FSU MM5 model

[EDR1222]

I saw it this morning and thought "gee, time to retire that model"

Might be a good idea!

[Steve]

Of interest, the 18z run from (1pm central today?) develops a storm right over LA and MS. heh.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[dvdweatherwizard]

Folks, Dr. Hart's FSU MM5 is EXPERIMENTAL and of course is going to be prone to some mistakes. The websites where this model is posted say the model is EXPERIMENTAL. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/ and http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/. My goodness, give it some slack. It is ONGOING RESEARCH that you are talking about here, not something that is completely ready for operation that will always suddenly be as good or better than the current operational global models. Show some RESPECT for the people attempting this EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH that can be difficult and tedious by not being so critical of it right away or laughing at it when it looks bad to you. I would bet that MOST, but not all, of you have NO idea what kind of hard work and intelligence it takes to make one of these models work. I don't care what anybody says; this is NOT a good thread whatsoever.