Where is the center of 92L?

[jrod]

What center?

If a LLC does form just south of PR this thing has no chance, Hispanola will tear it appart. Maybe this system will split with part of it going west and the other NW. I still think the area to the north has the best chance for development in the long run, as long as it can find an area a little more favorable.

Right now all I see a tropical wave that if anything is becoming less organized.

[Sanibel]

Not to get off-topic, but, Sanibel, would you know if the TWC boards have been closed down for an extended period? I've been trying to access them since Monday, and receive a "closed for maintenance" message each time.

Frank

Someone who uses the name "trkpzl" was trolling the board. Eventually the non-present management reacted by shutting the board down.

[wxman57]

As I posted in another thread, I think the focus for possible development is much farther north and east, closer to 20N/60W. Typically, a wave slows, amplifies, and then "breaks". The cyclone develops from the top of the wave that breaks off, not the leading edge where the recon flew. Look at the big picture (literally) and you can see that most of the wave's energy is north and east of the Caribbean, not near St. Croix. The 18Z GFS may have the right idea in developing a low north of the Caribbean and carrying it to the north and out to sea.

[Brent]

Not to get off-topic, but, Sanibel, would you know if the TWC boards have been closed down for an extended period? I've been trying to access them since Monday, and receive a "closed for maintenance" message each time.

Frank

Someone who uses the name "trkpzl" was trolling the board. Eventually the non-present management reacted by shutting the board down.

There is a God!!!

He/she has been trolling over there for at least a year now...

[elysium]

There appears to be a new center forming approximately 150 miles east of the islands. Additionally, there seems to be something trying to form in the Leeward Islands. The old center, which crossed over Puerto Rico, looks like it has dissolved with areas trying to reform to the east. This could get interesting after all.

[HurricaneJoe22]

that TWC board is crap....I left that for this and never looked back....left it for dead, which apparently is what happened lol

[elysium]

Definate rotation noted approximately 150 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Unfortunately, I haven't been keeping abreast with old 93L which may have had its invest status discontiinued by the NHC. Still, a new center appears to be forming in the vicinity of 150 miles east of the Leewards, and wouldn't be too surprised if recon wasn't sent out to investigate if this new rotation persists for another 10 hours or so. Does anyone else see the area to which I'm referring? There appears to be outflow and rotation about 150 miles or so east of the northern Leewards. Looks like something trying to get started.

[HurricaneJoe22]

what the heck, it's Friday night:

BLACK EYED PEAS LYRICS

Let's Get It Started


Let's Get It Started, in here...

And the base keep runnin' runnin', and runnin' runnin', and runnin' runnin', and runnin' runnin', and
runnin' runnin', and runnin' runnin', and runnin' runnin', and runnin' runnin', and...

In this context, there's no disrespect, so, when I bust my rhyme, you break your necks.
We got five minutes for us to disconnect, from all intellect collect the rhythm effect.
Obstacles are inefficient, follow your intuition, free your inner soul and break away from tradition.
Coz when we beat out, girl it's pullin without.
You wouldn't believe how we wow poop out.
Burn it till it's burned out.
Turn it till it's turned out.
Act up from north, west, east, south.

[Chorus:]
Everybody, everybody, let's get into it.
Get stupid.
Get it started, get it started, get it started.
Let's get it started (ha), let's get it started in here.
Let's get it started (ha), let's get it started in here.
Let's get it started (ha), let's get it started in here.
Let's get it started (ha), let's get it started in here.
Yeah.

Lose control, of body and soul.
Don't move too fast, people, just take it slow.
Don't get ahead, just jump into it.
Ya'll here a body, two pieces to it.
Get stutted, get stupid.
You'll want me body people will walk you through it.
Step by step, like you're into new kid.
Inch by inch with the new solution.
Trench men hits, with no delusion.
The feeling's irresistible and that's how we movin'.

[Chorus:]
Everybody, everybody, let's get into it.
Get stupid.
Get it started, get it started, get it started.
Let's get it started (ha), let's get it started in here.
Let's get it started (ha), let's get it started in here.
Let's get it started (ha), let's get it started in here.
Let's get it started (ha), let's get it started in here.
Yeah.

Runnin' runnin', and runnin' runnin', and runnin' runnin', and runnin runnin' and...

C'mon y'all, lets get woohoo!
Lets get woohoo! (in here)
Lets get woohoo!
Lets get woohoo! (in here)
Lets get woohoo!
Lets get woohoo! (in here) Ow, ow, ow!
Ya, ya, ya, ya, ya, ya, ya, ya, ya, ya, ya, ya, ya, ya, ya, ya...

Let's get ill, that's the deal.
At the gate, we'll bring the bud top drill. (Just)
Lose your mind this is the time,
Ya'll test this drill, Just and bang your spine. (Just)
Bob your head like me APL de, up inside your club or in your Bentley.
Get messy, loud and sick.
Ya'll mount past slow mo in another head trip. (So)
Come then now do not correct it, let's get ignant let's get hectic.

[Chorus:]
Everybody, everybody, let's get into it.
Get stupid. (Come on)
Get it started (come one), get it started (yeah), get it started.
Let's get it started (ha), let's get it started in here.
Let's get it started (ha), let's get it started in here.
Let's get it started (ha), let's get it started in here.
Let's get it started (ha), let's get it started
(woah, woah, woah) in here.
Yeah.

Lets get woohoo!
Lets get woohoo! (in here)
Lets get woohoo!
Lets get woohoo! (in here)
Lets get woohoo!
Lets get woohoo! (in here) Ow, ow, ow!
Ya, ya, ya, ya, ya, ya, ya, ya, ya, ya, ya, ya, ya, ya, ya, ya...

Runnin' runnin', and runnin' runnin', and runnin' runnin', and runnin' runnin'
[fade]

[Brent]

that TWC board is crap....I left that for this and never looked back....left it for dead, which apparently is what happened lol

Yep...

[elysium]

Just checked the latest readings in the area and all indications are that the center is still over Puerto Rico, and will skim the northern coast of Haiti over the next 24 hours. It looks like, if there is going to be a center, it will be located just to the north of Haiti in the southern Bahamas. I guess the circulation over the Leewards is just related thunderstorm activity. Anyway, since 92L is not going to cross the mountainous regions of Hispaniola and Haiti, and the pressures are lowering within what appears to be the center of circulation trying to form, we cannot write off 92L just yet. My biggest worry was that it would have to cross over the mountains of not only Hispaniola, but also Cuba, but since we're getting a little more northward movement, and conditions will improve for development, possibly becoming very good as it nears the Florida penisula, there is some hope that 92L will be able to survive if not thrive once over the open water and heading for the coast. I don't think we need to put up shutters just yet (lol).

[Acral]

One of the other posters mentioned that it has all the bearings of becoming a "weak sister". Based on my un-professional eye, I am not seeing this thing become much more that a TS at best.

Of course, all things change.

[elysium]

O.K. boys and girls, we're back in business. Huge flare up over Puerto Rico. We have a storm. The pressures are dropping through the roof and we should see the upgrade to depression status by this A.M.

The primary obstacle, the trecherous mountain region of Hispaniola, is now behind us. As far as development, all I can say is 'WOW'. 92L is on the way up in a big way. While I still don't think that Florida should board up, you like to check that plywood about now. 92L has pulled through. Just incredible.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It appears to be that the center is near the southwest coast of PR. It is moving westward. There is no tropical depression or cyclone devleoping at all. That flare up is likely caused from the ULL to the north forming wind shear over the system while convection is forced upwards.

[MortisFL]

It appears to be that the center is near the southwest coast of PR. It is moving westward. There is no tropical depression or cyclone devleoping at all. That flare up is likely caused from the ULL to the north forming wind shear over the system while convection is forced upwards.

Agreed, unless the shear weakens where the convection is north of PR, I don't see anything developing right away.

[elysium]

What you are seeing is 92L relocating the center north of Puerto Rico. It could be forming right on the coastline of P.R., but it's moving W.N.W., so any interaction with land will be minimal.

It looks spectacular. This system has blue star potential. There is a little ULL just to the north, but that's quickly being evacuated. I will double check what you're telling me Matt at the radar site. By the way, have you seen the latest model projections on the location of the ridge 92L will be traveling under as it heads toward florida? Strong enough to easily punch this system across the penisula and into the GOM. That could change, however. Should be enough to get it across as current model guidance forecasts. We will have to wait and see.

What do you think the storm will do Matt? Do you see it any differently than this?

[MortisFL]

What you are seeing is 92L relocating the center north of Puerto Rico. It could be forming right on the coastline of P.R., but it's moving W.N.W., so any interaction with land will be minimal.

It looks spectacular. This system has blue star potential. There is a little ULL just to the north, but that's quickly being evacuated. I will double check what you're telling me Matt at the radar site. By the way, have you seen the latest model projections on the location of the ridge 92L will be traveling under as it heads toward florida? Strong enough to easily punch this system across the penisula and into the GOM. That could change, however. Should be enough to get it across as current model guidance forecasts. We will have to wait and see.

What do you think the storm will do Matt? Do you see it any differently than this?

If it's going to develop north of PR, its going to have to persist...something that hasn't happened with 92L yet.

[MortisFL]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR FROM PUERTO RICO INDICATE THAT INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICALDEPRESSION HAS DISMINISHED...SQUALLS PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHERTERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Scott_inVA]

What you are seeing is 92L relocating the center north of Puerto Rico. It could be forming right on the coastline of P.R., but it's moving W.N.W., so any interaction with land will be minimal.

It looks spectacular. This system has blue star potential. There is a little ULL just to the north, but that's quickly being evacuated. I will double check what you're telling me Matt at the radar site. By the way, have you seen the latest model projections on the location of the ridge 92L will be traveling under as it heads toward florida? Strong enough to easily punch this system across the penisula and into the GOM. That could change, however. Should be enough to get it across as current model guidance forecasts. We will have to wait and see.

What do you think the storm will do Matt? Do you see it any differently than this?

Surface obs...much more reliable than naked eye and sat imagery...indicate nothing closing off anywhere there.

Concerning models: "hurricane" models initialized nothing at SA 6Z while the GFDL disipates after 6 hours. Even the GFS can't hold anything at 925mb.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

[wxman57]

Yeah, Scott, surface obs indicate that we have nothing but a wave there. As I pointed out last evening, the wave's energy seems to be re-focusing north of 20N between 60-65W. There's no circulation there at all, but the thunderstorms are becoming just a little more concentrated.

Here's a 12Z sfc plot. As you can see, just a wave with the axis passing through eastern Puerto Rico, and pressures aren't that low:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/harvey5.gif">

[rockyman]

The 12z tropicals are finally in...they initiate the "center" just south of the eastern tip of Hispaniola: