92L Invest

[Frank2]

Re: jax's post

Yes, I know it's left the hangar, but, it's a long round-robin trip - don't be surprised to hear that the mission has been scrubbed at some point this afternoon. Chances are that they will fly the invest, but, there have been times when they've been enroute to a weak system, and the NHC has decided to release them from the tasking - it doesn't happen too often, but, it has happened.

Frank

[jax]

Re: jax's post

Yes, I know it's left the hangar, but, it's a long round-robin trip - don't be surprised to hear that the mission has been scrubbed at some point this afternoon. Chances are that they will fly the invest, but, there have been times when they've been enroute to a weak system, and the NHC has decided to release them from the tasking - it doesn't happen too often, but, it has happened.

Frank

looking at the current visable... it's becoming obvious to me that there is
a LLC southeast of the cluster of convection.. looks to be moving due
west (as the NHC mentioned in the TWO)... They are going... round
robin or no round robin.

[Thunder44]

Re: jax's post

Yes, I know it's left the hangar, but, it's a long round-robin trip - don't be surprised to hear that the mission has been scrubbed at some point this afternoon. Chances are that they will fly the invest, but, there have been times when they've been enroute to a weak system, and the NHC has decided to release them from the tasking - it doesn't happen too often, but, it has happened.

Frank

When has it happened for the reasons you suggest?

[clfenwi]

205 PM TWD

A tropical wave continues to move into the Caribbean and is
located along 58w/59w S of 22n extending SW to a 1012 mb low
pressure center near 17n62w and continuing south to 10n62w near
northeastern Venezuela. Scattered moderate convection is mainly
over the leeward island extending north to to near 22n58w
between 58w-64w. Wildly scattered moderate convection beginning
to make it way into the southern Windward Islands. Some slow
development is possible over the next 24-36 hours.

[bvigal]

Barometer readings here in BVI

11:00 am AST 29.99in / 1015.5hPa
2:20 pm AST 29.90in / 1012.4hPa

[deltadog03]

hmmm...pressure is droping...quite big too...thanks for the post... I think there is a LLC forming...

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050729 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050729 1800 050730 0600 050730 1800 050731 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.2N 64.5W 18.1N 66.6W 19.3N 68.7W 20.6N 70.5W
BAMM 17.2N 64.5W 17.8N 67.0W 18.8N 69.4W 19.9N 71.4W
A98E 17.2N 64.5W 17.7N 67.3W 18.2N 69.7W 19.0N 71.7W
LBAR 17.2N 64.5W 17.9N 66.9W 19.1N 69.3W 20.1N 71.4W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050731 1800 050801 1800 050802 1800 050803 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.9N 72.2W 23.8N 74.8W 25.2N 76.8W 26.5N 78.6W
BAMM 21.0N 73.2W 22.5N 75.7W 23.0N 77.5W 23.2N 79.4W
A98E 20.0N 73.7W 21.6N 77.5W 23.5N 80.7W 25.6N 82.8W
LBAR 21.3N 73.1W 23.2N 76.0W 24.6N 78.8W 25.8N 80.6W
SHIP 53KTS 61KTS 68KTS 73KTS
DSHP 53KTS 61KTS 68KTS 73KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.2N LONCUR = 64.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 16.7N LONM12 = 61.5W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 16.5N LONM24 = 59.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



18:00z Run of the model guidance.

[TS Zack]

STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W WITH EMBEDDED LOW PRES AT 17N62W
CONTINUE MOVING W-NW AT 15 KT. PLENTY OF CONVECTION AND MARKED
WIND SHIFT ALONG AXIS MADE THIS FEATURE A CANDIDATE FOR RECON
FLIGHT THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE THEN...UPPER ENVIRONMENT HAS
TURNED ADVERSE AND CHANCES OF INTENSIFICATION APPEAR DECREASED.
RECON MIGHT HAVE THE LAST WORD ON THIS. MOST MODELS HAD WAVE
STRENGTHENING TILL LAST 12Z RUN WHEN ALL BACK DOWN EXCEPT NAM
WHICH MOVE IT NW AS TROPICAL CYCLONE. TILL RECON GET THE WORD
OUT...WE WILL MAINTAIN IT AS STRONG WAVE.

[Frank2]

Re: Thunder44's post

It has happened when the flight hour budget is tight, and it's decided to cancel the tasking on weak systems (usually closer to the end of the fiscal year, which ends on September 30). It also happens when the season is expected to be busy (as it has been so far), and they need to stretch the hours as best they can - a budget is a budget.

And, it has happened numerous times over the years due to mechanical or technical problems with the aircraft.

By the way, that "round robin" trip is approximately 4,000 miles - I wouldn't want to be the one sitting there for close to 12 hours (I've done it for close to that length of time, and it's a long day's work).

Frank

[cycloneye]

Re: Thunder44's post

It has happened when the flight hour budget is tight and it's decided to cancel the tasking on weak systems (usually closer to the end of the fiscal year, when ends on September 30).

And, it has happened numerous times over the years due to mechanical or technical problems with the aircraft.

By the way, that "round robin" trip is approximately 4,000 miles - I wouldn't want to be the one sitting there for close to 12 hours (I've done it for close to that length of time, and it's a long day's work).

Frank

But after the mission is over they can stay in St Croix and not make that long trip.

[deltadog03]

so, whats up with the pressures falling then?? that makes me wonder a little bit....

[Frank2]

I'm not sure about this, but, I'm pretty certain that they have cut back their overnights down there...

Frank

[WeatherEmperor]

Re: Thunder44's post

It has happened when the flight hour budget is tight and it's decided to cancel the tasking on weak systems (usually closer to the end of the fiscal year, when ends on September 30).

And, it has happened numerous times over the years due to mechanical or technical problems with the aircraft.

By the way, that "round robin" trip is approximately 4,000 miles - I wouldn't want to be the one sitting there for close to 12 hours (I've done it for close to that length of time, and it's a long day's work).

Frank

But after the mission is over they can stay in St Croix and not make that long trip.

Yup. You guys over there give our air force boys a much easier time. Glad to have them.

<RICKY>

[stormandan28]

has the recon mission been cancelled

[bvigal]

I'm told they love to stay, too! Maybe they can have a nice overnight tonight, with a lovely restaurant meal, and some good rest... they deserve it!!!

[cycloneye]

has the recon mission been cancelled

Go to 92L recon thread.

[Brent]

[WeatherEmperor]

92L better and I mean better starting moving at a stronger WNW movement right away because if it doesnt, it will be destroyed by Hispanola if it wants to survive.

<RICKY>

[caribepr]

<---getting behind the bar and taking orders. I personally am ready for a drink after reading the SIX more pages of thoughts, comments and pretty pictures since last checking.
As someone mentioned, for something supposed to be nothing, this invest is sure interesting! Like one of those woman where you can't quite pinpoint WHY she is so appealing but something sure is there! (forgive the mixed gender metaphor if this meanders into becoming Harvey).
By the way...STX takes real good care of the Hurricane Crews when they are there...always have, always will. Look at what they do for us down here!

[bvigal]

I'm with you, caribepr!! After all, Since you're serving, may I please have a with lime?