92L Invest

[JamesFromMaine2]

Ok Recon is on its way to 92L right now so they won't cancel Recon once they are already on their way! And The NHC is still saying this could become a TD later today or tomorrow. So if they are saying that then there is still a chance. IMO alot of people write storms off before they are even giving a chance! Lets just watch this over the weekend and see what happens!

[Thunder44]

Guys,I don't think they would send recon out there for nothing.

the nhc dosnt perposely waste us the tax payers money for nothing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yep and they wouldn't say a TD could form later today, if they didn't they think they would find one.

[Frank2]

Don't forget that the NHC stated that recon is "scheduled" to investigate the area this afternoon, so, the flight is still up in the air at this time (oops), and subject to cancellation - I've seen this happen before, even when they were en-route.

I still find the TWO hard to understand - if I wasn't looking at the satellite loop, I'd be upset at their wording, which makes the system sound much more than it is.

Frank

[jax]

Don't forget that the NHC stated that recon is "scheduled" to investigate the area this afternoon, so, the flight is still up in the air at this time (oops), and subject to cancellation - I've seen this happen before, even when they were en-route.

I still find the TWO hard to understand - if I wasn't looking at the satellite loop, I'd be upset at their wording, which makes the system sound much more than it is.

Frank

plane has already left the hanger... she's airborn.

[Ivanhater]

i think were gonna have a depression..jmho

[Thunder44]

The recon schedule just came out for tomorrow, they plan six-hourly fixes, if it develops. They are no notes saying that they flight has been cancelled. They are going out and I doubt the plane will turn back, unless there are mechanical problems:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 291600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT FRI 29 JULY 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z JULY 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-062

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 30/1800,31/0000Z A. 31/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 02FFA INVEST B. AFXXX 0308A CYCLONE
C. 30/1245Z C. 31/0230Z
D. 20.0N 69.0W D. 21.0N 71.0W
E. 30/1700Z TO 31/0030Z E. 31/0500Z TO 31/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.

[wxmann_91]

Ok Recon is on its way to 92L right now so they won't cancel Recon once they are already on their way! And The NHC is still saying this could become a TD later today or tomorrow. So if they are saying that then there is still a chance. IMO alot of people write storms off before they are even giving a chance! Lets just watch this over the weekend and see what happens!

I'm not writing this one off. It probably won't develop today or tomorrow because of the shear from the ULL's and land interaction from Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. And even if it does become a TD, it can't strengthen much today and tomorrow. At day 3, the environment could get a bit more favorable, but at that time it would already be too close to land to develop any more. That's why I said it probably won't be anything more than a TS.

Why did I say that this probably won't develop? Well, perhaps I was exaggerating there, but there is a 50-50 chance that it won't. Look at the environment that is surrounding it. If the thunderstorms don't make it to day 3, then there is no chance of this developing.

But time will tell. Perhaps I'll be proven wrong Monday when a Cat 5 is bearing down on Miami!

[wxman57]

The night before, I doubted Franklin's formation because there was nothing to him. All it took was a few large burst of thunderstorm activity overnight.

By morning he was certainly a depression. This thing has scattered convection with nothing concentrating in a blob. Doesn't look good at all.

I didn't think the Reconn was necessary either but the NHC has alot more imagery than us, so they must see something we don't.

Franklin sure developed quickly, I'd agree. The key was the persistent "blob" of convection, something this wave lacks. It certainly could develop over the weenend IF it consolidates. But certainly no development today.

And I have the same imagery and model data as the NHC. There is no evidence of an LLC forming, and pressures across the NE Caribbean are actually relatively high (1015-1017mb).

[wxman57]

I'm not writing this one off. It probably won't develop today or tomorrow because of the shear from the ULL's and land interaction from Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. And even if it does become a TD, it can't strengthen much today and tomorrow. At day 3, the environment could get a bit more favorable, but at that time it would already be too close to land to develop any more. That's why I said it probably won't be anything more than a TS.

Why did I say that this probably won't develop? Well, perhaps I was exaggerating there, but there is a 50-50 chance that it won't. Look at the environment that is surrounding it. If the thunderstorms don't make it to day 3, then there is no chance of this developing.

But time will tell. Perhaps I'll be proven wrong Monday when a Cat 5 is bearing down on Miami!

Yep, I'd agree. It'll be interacting with PR and the DR the next few days. I think we may have to wait until Monday for a better shot at developing.

[x-y-no]

If there's any northerly component to the movement of this system. I can't see it. At this point, I'm starting to think it's going to pass mostly south of Puerto Rico. Who knows, it may even pass mostly south of Hispaniola, even. (actually, I see small prospect of that - a track across Hispaniola looks more likely)

It's firing up some good convection on the south side now, and that may assist in actually closing off the circulation. If it does manage to keep tracking west far enough to pass south of Hispaniola, then it's a different ballgame.

A lot still depends on that ULL to the north and just how fast and how far south it progresses. A more southerly track for 92L would improve prospects for development, but the ULL could still come far enough south to tear it apart, or a passage over the heart of Hiapianiola could do that job.

Jan

[gpickett00]

this has to be the most active thread on an INVEST!

[Thunder44]

If there's any northerly component to the movement of this system. I can't see it. At this point, I'm starting to think it's going to pass mostly south of Puerto Rico. Who knows, it may even pass mostly south of Hispaniola, even. (actually, I see small prospect of that - a track across Hispaniola looks more likely)

It's firing up some good convection on the south side now, and that may assist in actually closing off the circulation. If it does manage to keep tracking west far enough to pass south of Hispaniola, then it's a different ballgame.

A lot still depends on that ULL to the north and just how fast and how far south it progresses. A more southerly track for 92L would improve prospects for development, but the ULL could still come far enough south to tear it apart, or a passage over the heart of Hiapianiola could do that job.

Jan

Yes, I agree you can see low clouds moving from north to south, on the north side, and on the south side some clouds moving from south to north. I think people are looking too far north.

[Derek Ortt]

if anything is going to form, it will probably be closer to 15N and 66W

[wxmann_91]

A more southerly track for 92L would improve prospects for development, but the ULL could still come far enough south to tear it apart, or a passage over the heart of Hiapianiola could do that job.

A more southerly track won't necessarily improve prospects for development. Shear has gripped the entire Atlantic basin, and the western Caribbean is no exception. In addition, the SAL is still there, though it is weakening. Truth is, August is apt to start out more like a lamb then a lion thanks to the plentiful shear across the entire Atlantic. On the other hand, some models develop an entity just off the coast of North Carolina and New Jersey, so we'll wait and see.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8g10split.html

[swimaster20]

At times, this thread is worse than a wobble-watchers thread.

[Anonymous]

This thing should eventually have an anticyclone on top of it, which will improve outflow.

[Derek Ortt]

wehn will this anti-cyclone form and why do you think this way? The UL is moving in tandem with the wave, which is causing the shear over it.

This does remind me somewhat of Barry 2001 as it had the same pattern. A candidate for development that struggled in the Carib due to shear when the models said there would be none (what a surprise), and eventually formed in the GOM, but could never really get going due to the shear

[gkrangers]

This thing should eventually have an anticyclone on top of it, which will improve outflow.

I'm waiting for the hurricane north of PR.

[deltadog03]

its not shearing the system....its venting it on the northern side...im not a professional yet, but look and read the NHC/TPC discussions....ULL will move in tandom and enviroment will be favorable

[Brent]

This thing should eventually have an anticyclone on top of it, which will improve outflow.

I'm waiting for the hurricane north of PR.

LOL LOL LOL