92L Invest

[Thunder44]

I will admit that this one had me going for a while. When you study the satellite imagery carefully, though, you realize that whoever listed this as a strong tropical wave has a very broad interpretation of the word 'strong'. This thing is in about the worst shape that it could be in and still be a wave, IMO.

This is a dud. It's better to realize it early. Even if it holds together (highly unlikely), this thing will never extract itself from the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba. It's moving dead west. You can forget it.

I hate to be the one to break this to everyone here. 92L did look promising, but this one's over. This is when you kiss them goodbye and.....move on to the next one. It isn't so much that it's in poor condition, it's rather because it will never get a chance to develop. This one is making a bee line into the mountains, and there is nothing that can be done about that. 92L is a waste of time.

Here come the naysayers

[x-y-no]

I will admit that this one had me going for a while. When you study the satellite imagery carefully, though, you realize that whoever listed this as a strong tropical wave has a very broad interpretation of the word 'strong'. This thing is in about the worst shape that it could be in and still be a wave, IMO.

This is a dud. It's better to realize it early. Even if it holds together (highly unlikely), this thing will never extract itself from the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba. It's moving dead west. You can forget it.

I hate to be the one to break this to everyone here. 92L did look promising, but this one's over. This is when you kiss them goodbye and.....move on to the next one. It isn't so much that it's in poor condition, it's rather because it will never get a chance to develop. This one is making a bee line into the mountains, and there is nothing that can be done about that. 92L is a waste of time.

It's a "strong" wave not because of convection but because of the surface wind signature.

I do agree that it has been moving west, and neeeds to acquire a NNW motion quickly in order to avoid crossing directly over Hispaniola.

I can't agree that it's a dead issue yet, however.

Jan

[cycloneye]

I will admit that this one had me going for a while. When you study the satellite imagery carefully, though, you realize that whoever listed this as a strong tropical wave has a very broad interpretation of the word 'strong'. This thing is in about the worst shape that it could be in and still be a wave, IMO.

This is a dud. It's better to realize it early. Even if it holds together (highly unlikely), this thing will never extract itself from the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba. It's moving dead west. You can forget it.

I hate to be the one to break this to everyone here. 92L did look promising, but this one's over. This is when you kiss them goodbye and.....move on to the next one. It isn't so much that it's in poor condition, it's rather because it will never get a chance to develop. This one is making a bee line into the mountains, and there is nothing that can be done about that. 92L is a waste of time.

It's a "strong" wave not because of convection but because of the surface wind signature.

I do agree that it has been moving west, and neeeds to acquire a NNW motion quickly in order to avoid crossing directly over Hispaniola.

I can't agree that it's a dead issue yet, however.

Jan

Jan I think looking at it it well may cross Puerto Rico first or pass just south.

[x-y-no]

Jan I think looking at it it well may cross Puerto Rico first or pass just south.

Yes, certainly. But even though Puerto Rico has some mountainous territory, crossing there as a TD with a broad circulation isn't going to do the system a tremendous amount of damage. The spine a Hispaniola is different matter.

You're certainly in for a ton of rain, whatever happens.

Jan

[elysium]

No, not really a naysayer as such. I just think it's better to put 92L into the proper perspective instead of wasting time watching something that won't develop. Of course, there are some who find these type systems interesting from a meteorolical viewpoint, and that's fine. Just don't take time away from something else more important under the assumption that you will benefit in the long run by being fully prepared for a possible tropical event evolving out of 92L. This one's a dud not only in terms of organization, but also directional heading. It can be interesting from a meteorological perspective, however. It is interesting sometimes to watch one of these undeveloped systems run aground. Some people like to watch that type of thing, and to them, all I can say I suppose is by all means do watch. Even at this late stage of his career, Franklin stills attracts a few diehard fans. People do like to watch. There's certainly nothing wrong with that

[Derek Ortt]

the UL ahead of it is diving SW. Models cannot forecast upper winds over the ocean with any level of accuracy due to the lack of obs, and the poor weighting of satellite data (which must be higher for regions where there are no obs)

This one is probably not going to develop, and IMO, there is no reason at all to waste a recon flight on this system.

Entire basin is starting to become hostile, much more in line with climo for this type of year

[Stormcenter]

I think 92L is far from dead and we ALL know things can change in an instant in the tropics.

[x-y-no]

the UL ahead of it is diving SW. Models cannot forecast upper winds over the ocean with any level of accuracy due to the lack of obs, and the poor weighting of satellite data (which must be higher for regions where there are no obs)

This one is probably not going to develop, and IMO, there is no reason at all to waste a recon flight on this system.

You don't think there's any prospect of that ULL staying far enough ahead to ventilate it instead of tearing it apart?

Entire basin is starting to become hostile, much more in line with climo for this type of year

It does look that way.

[Derek Ortt]

the UL already appears to be too close.

With this pattern, except for the tropical Atlantic, which has SAL issues, it is going to be extremely hard to get any type of cyclon for a few days or a couple of weeks. Seems to be shaping up somewhat like 2003 in that regard

[ThunderMate]

This system has plenty of life left and is looking like a southeast coast hit due to the ridge being blocked from rebuilding by the trough over the southeast. And if won't be a waste of a recon flight because every model is developing this system.

[ThunderMate]

Derek where did you get your degree? how can no system develope for a couple of weeks THIS season?

[Frank2]

Re: Thunder44's post

Naysayers, no - commenting on what is there, yes.

Looking at this photo, does anyone see a "vigorous tropical wave"?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/VIS/20.jpg

There appears to be scattered strong convection in several areas, but, nothing else.

Frank

[Derek Ortt]

but they aren't developing it until it reaches the Bahamas, and that is looking less likely as the UL is not moving out of the way and this may cross Hispaniola

[Derek Ortt]

University of Miami, got my degree in Meteorology and Applied mathematics

The pattern is not likely to change quickly, just as the favorable pattern from a couple of weeks ago didn't change. Plus, as has been stated in the analysis forum, we are on the less favorable phase of the MJO right now

[elysium]

Not this one stormcenter. This one's pretty washed-out. There will be better systems to track a little later on in the season. I think that the fast pace so far this season has just about everyone thinking that every single system will develop (lol). 92L is good as gone, but didn't it have you going? It had me going for a while there. I've seen livelier floating pieces of logs that accidently became oceanic post septic. That's what 92L reminds me mostly of (lol). Logs.

[boca]

Derek do you think 92L will cross Fl and give us rain atleast?

[Thunder44]

Re: Thunder44's post

Naysayers, no - commenting on what is there, yes.

Looking at this photo, does anyone see a "vigorous tropical wave"?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/VIS/20.jpg

There appears to be scattered strong convection in several areas, but, nothing else.

Frank

A wave is defined by it's surface wind signature not by convection. There are waves moving through the Atlantic that often don't have much convection and is scattered at best. This morning convection is deep and concentrated in a small area with a low pressure. I know it doesn't look "perfect" on satellite, but many developing TD's don't look very well at all. You can't judge just by satellite, you have to use surface obs as well, if they are any avaible in the area. And it too early to know where exactly this is going and to write it off.

[Stormcenter]

Not this one stormcenter. This one's pretty washed-out. There will be better systems to track a little later on in the season. I think that the fast pace so far this season has just about everyone thinking that every single system will develop (lol). 92L is good as gone, but didn't it have you going? It had me going for a while there. I've seen livelier floating pieces of logs that accidently became oceanic post septic. That's what 92L reminds me mostly of (lol). Logs.

I would have to go with JB 's thinking this morning on 92L especially considering how this seasons been going so far. But hey anything is possible and it may just go POOF.

[Derek Ortt]

the weaker the system remains, the farther west it will come

[Stormcenter]

Re: Thunder44's post

Naysayers, no - commenting on what is there, yes.

Looking at this photo, does anyone see a "vigorous tropical wave"?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/VIS/20.jpg

There appears to be scattered strong convection in several areas, but, nothing else.

Frank

A wave is defined by it's surface wind signature not by convection. There are waves moving through the Atlantic that often don't have much convection and is scattered at best. This morning convection is deep and concentrated in a small area with a low pressure. I know it doesn't look "perfect" on satellite, but many developing TD's don't look very well at all. You can't judge just by satellite, you have to use surface obs as well, if they are any avaible in the area. And it too early to know where exactly this is going and to write it off.

Good points.